交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 美豆天气变数仍存，豆粕偏强震荡 （豆粕周报8.11-8.15） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美豆天气短期尚有变数和空头回补，美豆重回千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡回落，美豆 回落带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港仍旧偏高和新季国产大豆增产预期压制盘面， 短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港旺季预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差244，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存710.56万吨，上周655.59万吨，环比增加8.38%，去年同期714.78万吨， 同比减少0.59%。偏多 4.盘面：价格 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-15 豆粕早报 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 CONTENTS 目 录 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，短期利多出尽后技术性震荡整理，美豆重回千点关口上方震荡等 待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡回落，美豆回 落带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港仍旧偏高和新季国产大豆增产预期压制盘面， 短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港旺季预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差259，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存710.56万吨，上周655.59万吨，环比增加8.38%，去年同期714.78万吨， 同比减少0.59%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-14 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，8月美农报数据下调美豆种植面积超出市场预期，美豆重回千点 关口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震 荡回升，美豆反弹和菜粕上涨带动，但八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制 盘面上涨高度，短期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差：现货3000（华东），基差-163，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存100.35万吨，上周104.16万吨，环比减少3.66%，去年同期147.01万 吨，同比减少31.74%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，特朗普敦促中国采购更多大豆和美豆评级小幅下调，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高 回落，菜粕带动和技术性震荡整理，八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘 面上涨高度，短期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差：现货2920（华东），基差-171，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存100.35万吨，上周104.16万吨，环比减少3.66%，去年同期147.01万 吨，同比减少31.74%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-11 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆产区天气整体良好和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口附近震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升，需 求良好支撑和技术性震荡整理，但八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面 上涨高度，短期或维持区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2920（华东），基差-125，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存104.31万吨，上周99.84万吨，环比增加4.48%，去年同期134.59万吨， 同比减少22.5%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2509：4080至4180区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆窄幅 震荡，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆增产预期压 制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差178，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存645.59万吨，上周642.24万吨，环比增加0.52%， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕大幅 回落，农业部推动饲料配方中减少蛋白含量不利需求和获利盘回吐，七月进口大豆到港 维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期或回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2830（华东），基差-195，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.84万吨，上周88.62万吨，环比增加12.66%，去年同期126.06万吨， 同比减少20.8%。偏多 4.盘面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The M2509 contract of soybean meal is likely to fluctuate between 3000 and 3060. The soybean market is also affected by multiple factors, and the A2509 contract of soybean is expected to move between 4160 and 4260 [8][10]. - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games for soybean meal, and on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games for soybeans [13][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3060, and the soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4160 - 4260. The soybean meal market is neutral, with a negative basis, a positive inventory situation, a positive trend on the disk, a positive situation in the main position, and is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The soybean market is also affected by multiple factors, with a neutral overall situation [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have rebounded from low levels. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. The soybean meal market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in June, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [30]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: presents the harvest area, beginning inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), Brazil (2024/25), and Argentina (2024/25) [32][33][37][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: shows the harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the past six months [40]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded week - on - week but declined year - on - year [41]. - The arrival of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The inventories of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills have continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term stocking demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in June increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the futures profit of imported soybeans have both fluctuated slightly [50]. - The inventories of live pigs and sows have increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The price of live pigs has rebounded recently, while the price of piglets remains weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs has increased slightly [56]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has rebounded from a low level [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 2980 - 3040. The US soybean market is influenced by good US soybean crushing data, but the high import of soybeans in June and weak spot prices in China suppress the market. The US soybean growing - season weather has uncertainties, and South American soybean harvest is abundant, which may limit the upward movement of the soybean meal price. [8] - **For Soybeans (A2509)**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4140 - 4240. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production may suppress the price. [10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - No content related to daily hints is provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to be strong above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, import soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories rebounded from low levels. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets were affected by the decline of US soybeans and showed a downward trend. - The profit of domestic pig farming decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal supported the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war still existed. The soybean meal market is expected to remain in oscillation, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war. [12] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans continued. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. [13] 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - **Bearish Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2810, with a basis of - 167, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 82.24 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds are flowing out. [8] - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 21, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 636.4 tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds are flowing out. [10] 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds are flowing out. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds are flowing out. 3.6 Other Data - **Trading Volume and Price**: The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 7th to July 16th are provided, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [15] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from July 8th to July 16th are provided. [17] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal from July 4th to July 16th are provided, along with the changes compared to the previous day. [19] - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio. [30][31] - **Sowing, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The sowing and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season are provided. [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39] - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 are provided, including harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans. [40] - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. [41] - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in June, with an overall increase. The monthly arrival volume from 2020 to 2025 is provided. [43] - **Oil - Mill Inventory and Production**: The inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term procurement demand. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year. [44][46][48] - **Import Cost and Profit**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the profit of imported soybean futures fluctuated slightly. [50] - **Pig Farming**: The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level. [52][54][56][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, including the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the supply and demand of domestic soybeans and soybean meal. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the growth of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [10][11][13]. - The soybean meal market is also in a volatile pattern. The short - term demand for soybean meal is weak, but the low inventory of oil mills and the uncertainty of US soybean weather support the price. The market is mainly focused on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good weather in US soybean - growing regions suppresses the price. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded from low levels, and the soybean and soybean meal markets have declined due to the fall of US soybeans [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. The soybean meal market is in a weak - volatile pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing regions and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain volatile [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainty in US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated, reaching 21.98% in 2024 [22]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: The US soybean harvest area, yield, and output have changed slightly. The期末库存 of old - crop soybeans has decreased, and the export and crushing volumes have remained relatively stable. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also shown certain trends [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: The planting, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other growth stages of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing different progress [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in 2024/25**: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 are also presented, showing different rates compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market - The US soybean market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and good weather, showing a weak - volatile trend. The weather in US soybean - growing regions and the progress of Sino - US tariff wars are the main factors affecting the market [33]. - The expectation of the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has increased due to the global tariff war initiated by the US. The US soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [33]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans has reached a high in June, with the peak postponed and the overall volume increasing [36]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly, and the demand for forward stocking has increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained high, and the output of soybean meal in June has increased year - on - year [37][39][41]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement of domestic soybean meal has slightly decreased, and the pick - up volume has declined from a high level [45]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has rebounded recently, while the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The profit of domestic pig farming has rebounded from a low level [46][48][52]. 3.7 Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - The soybean futures market has shown narrow - range fluctuations, affected by the relatively stable trends of US soybeans and domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a stage of shock adjustment, and the soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for new guidance [65]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - The soybean meal market has rebounded this week, affected by US soybeans and increased domestic supply. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a technical rebound stage, but the rebound space may be limited. The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the supply - demand pattern of US soybeans and soybean meal [67]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, the progress of Sino - US trade relations and tariff wars, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [69]. - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of oil mills, and downstream procurement [70]. - The less important factors are macro - economic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine conflict [70].