Core Viewpoint - Barclays Research team anticipates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00% due to ongoing high risks in the U.S. labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Forecast** - The FOMC is expected to reduce the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% [1] - A further rate cut of 25 basis points is anticipated in December [1] - Additional rate cuts are projected for March and June of 2026 [1] - **Economic Indicators** - The outlook is influenced by persistent risks in employment and minimal changes in inflation data [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated an increase in downside risks to the U.S. labor market during the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1] - The shift in risk balance may necessitate adjustments to monetary policy [1] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - The U.S. labor market is facing heightened downside risks, suggesting potential challenges ahead for employment [1] Policy Implications - The changing balance of risks could lead to a reevaluation of current monetary policies by the Federal Reserve [1]