2月27日(周五)，美元指数延续弱势整理，整体维持偏弱格局，非美货币普遍获得支撑。当前美元走势 呈现"短期承压、长期趋弱"的特征，核心是多空因素交织，政策不确定性主导短期走势，基本面韧性提 供底部支撑，中长期则面临结构性贬值压力。 核心基本面方面，两大因素主导走势：一是美国贸易政策反复，近期关税相关裁定与新政策信号叠加， 加剧全球贸易不确定性，压制美元信用与市场风险偏好，同时美国贸易逆差问题持续存在，进一步放大 美元贬值压力；二是美联储政策预期分歧明显，降息预期延后，官员表态偏向谨慎，政策摇摆增加市场 观望情绪，削弱美元上行动力。此外，美国就业市场稳健、经济复苏具备韧性，是支撑美元避免大幅下 跌的关键，但仅能限制下行空间，无法扭转短期弱势。 技术面来看，美元指数中期下行趋势明确，短期空头主导走势。均线呈空头排列，进一步强化弱势格 局，虽处于超卖区域，但未出现明确止跌信号，反弹力度有限，且反弹过程中易受阻力压制，整体弱势 格局难改。短期需关注关键支撑区域的防守情况，若失守将进一步打开下行空间。 后市展望，美元指数短期仍以承压为主，反弹易遇阻。后续方向取决于美国通胀数据、美联储政策动向 及贸易政策落地情况，中长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Revacy Fund, Zaheer Anwari, indicated that liquidity constraints on President's Day limited market volatility, leading to a modest rise in the dollar. However, the dollar faces risks of a decline due to weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which has strengthened expectations for further rate cuts later this year [1] Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) increased by 0.2% to 97.079 [1] - Market attention is shifting towards the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday, followed by personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data and fourth-quarter economic growth data on Friday [1] - If PCE data confirms a general slowdown in inflation, both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may decline [1]

前言： 今天是农历新年，先祝大家新年快乐，财源广进，新的一年里，希望大家能在资本市场中游刃有余，稳 步前进！2025年，贵金属经历了轰轰烈烈的疯牛，股市也扬帆起航，投资的热潮被掀起，全民买金，全 民炒金的局面，盛极一时，平稳的牛市，让很多人拿到了大结果。这是牛市坚定的参与者，该得的结 果，也是市场给关注投资机会的投资者回报。拿到结果，是幸运的，回顾过往，让我们成长，面对未 来，也充满信心。 进入2026年，市场将面临更加复杂的挑战，牛市固然不会改变，但2026年的情况将更加复杂，我一直强 调的两句话，第一，不要逆势操作，顺势永远是首选，第二，不要追高，对于行情的波动，大部分人没 有免疫力，所以分批建仓做差价，是唯一选项。业余选手，就要有业余选手的方法和对策，如火如荼的 市场，不是每个人都是踏浪而行的水手，更多的是不会游泳的新手。所以，获得什么结果，从来都不是 市场决定的，而是自己。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一亚洲早盘时段，现货黄金价格小幅回落0.3%，报每盎司5,025美元，此前一个交易日，金价上涨约 2.4%，重返5000美元上方。短线回调主要源于技术性仓位调整与多头获 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月16日｜金价小幅回落，在温和的美国通胀数据推动金价重返每盎司5000美元上方后，交易员 获利了结。周一早盘，金价维持在每盎司5020美元附近，此前一个交易日上涨2.4%。美国1月CPI环比 上涨0.2%，缓解了市场对CPI更大涨幅的担忧，并为美联储降息提供支撑。金价在1月下旬飙升至每盎 司5595美元以上的创纪录水平，一轮投机性买盘将涨势推至临界点，随后在月末突然暴跌至4500美元下 方。自那以来，金价已在震荡中收复约半数失地。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market rebounded on Friday after hitting a near one-week low, as investors await key U.S. inflation data to clarify the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction. Strong U.S. employment data previously suppressed rate cut expectations, putting pressure on gold prices this week [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 06:26 GMT, spot gold rose by 0.6% to $4,949.99 per ounce, but is still down 0.2% for the week, failing to reverse the weekly weakness [1]. - Gold futures for April delivery increased by 0.4% to $4,968 per ounce, mirroring the spot gold trend but also unable to change the weekly adjustment trend [1]. - On Thursday, gold fell approximately 3%, dropping below the critical support level of $5,000 per ounce, exacerbated by a stock market crash that increased selling pressure on gold [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Strong U.S. employment data released on Wednesday indicated a better-than-expected job market performance, reinforcing expectations that policymakers may maintain current interest rates for an extended period [3]. - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which will directly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and adjust investment strategies [3]. - There is a market expectation that the Federal Reserve will implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, with the first anticipated in June [3]. Group 3: Global Demand Factors - Changes in demand from major global gold consumption markets are also marginally impacting gold prices. India's gold market saw its first monthly discount this week due to weak demand, which has suppressed buying and selling willingness [3]. - The Chinese market experienced strong demand during the Lunar New Year, providing significant support for global gold demand [3]. Group 4: Other Precious Metals - Other precious metals also rebounded on Friday but did not reverse their weekly weakness. Spot silver rose by 1.5% to $76.31 per ounce, recovering part of Thursday's 11% decline, but is still expected to drop 2.1% for the week [4]. - Spot platinum increased by 0.9% to $2,018.44 per ounce, while palladium rose by 2.2% to $1,652.31 per ounce, both expected to show weekly losses [4]. - The rebound in gold and other precious metals is seen as a technical correction and does not change the overall weakness observed this week, with the core issue being the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported stable gold futures inventory, with significant fluctuations in gold prices influenced by U.S. economic data and market conditions [1] Group 1: Gold Futures Market - Total gold futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 105,072 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The main gold futures contract opened at 1,123.94 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,130.38 CNY and a low of 1,087.32 CNY, currently trading at 1,110.10 CNY, down 1.61% [1] - Trading volume for the day was 3,035.68 lots, with open interest decreasing by 1,412 lots to 153,140 lots [1] Group 2: Market Influences - Last night, gold prices dropped sharply, with New York gold falling nearly $200 per ounce, breaking below $5,000 per ounce, which corresponded to a decline in Shanghai gold prices to around 1,100 CNY per gram [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed slight strengthening, and January's non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, which led to a decrease in market rate cut expectations [1] - The Nasdaq index experienced a notable decline, indicating poor global market liquidity in the short term [1]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Non - farm data exceeded expectations, weakening the expectation of interest rate cuts. London platinum and palladium oscillated weakly, and trading in the Asian session was light approaching holidays, with volatility lower than before. The market has increasing differences in interpreting non - farm data, and Fed officials still have differences in their statements. In the short term, the trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may have a phased catch - up opportunity. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm. The supply uncertainty in South Africa and Russia and the implementation of new automobile emission policies make platinum more resilient than palladium, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market may continue. The report also gives the resistance and support levels for London platinum and palladium and the expected operating ranges for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 and palladium 2606 contracts [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 544.90 yuan/gram, down 5.80 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 430.05 yuan/gram, down 6.45 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10,387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3,179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 541.04 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River area was 410.00 yuan/gram, down 4.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 3.86 yuan/gram, up 1.46 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 20.05 yuan/gram, up 2.45 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 9,966.00, down 243.00; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 3,003.00, down 342.00. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 96.93, up 0.07; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.86%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 17.65, down 0.14. The US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages increased by 0.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and traders postponed the bet on Fed rate cuts from June to July [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred" choice. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 5.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 94.1%. The European Parliament voted to pass a financial assistance package for Ukraine, providing 90 billion euros in EU aid loans from 2026 to 2027, with 60 billion euros for Ukraine's defense needs [2]. 3.6 Key Areas of Concern - On March 12, at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 7; at 23:00, the total number of existing home sales in the US in January; and at 21:30, the US CPI data for January [2].

因为这件事直接影响到美国金融体系的稳健，美元以及美债还会不会成为全球资本的"避险港"就在此一举。同时，还有美国AI泡沫越做越大，英伟达等科技 公司能不能替特朗普稳住这一经济动力的引擎，都是2026年存在的隐患。 当然，如果要从美国上层社会的博弈说回到"斩杀线"这一问题，就不得不提"大而美"法案。 那么通胀数据飙升，就不得不说美联储在2026年也或将迎来重大变革。 原本要承诺改变美国不断扩大债务赤字现状的特朗普在重返白宫之后，一改常态继续扩大美债规模，甚至操作力度更加疯狂，也因此导致与马斯克的直接决 裂。 特朗普一直威逼美联储主席鲍威尔采取激进的降息措施，但收效甚微，考虑到美国货币政策能不能对关税战打配合以及特朗普个人的政治利益，那么对鲍威 尔下手或许才是2026年全世界最大的一颗雷。 这种情况也在情理之中，毕竟联邦政府寅吃卯粮已经是改不掉毛病，关税撑死能为联邦政府每年带来3000亿美元的收入，而所谓上万亿美元的投资什么时候 能落地还没个准话。要维持美国在全球的霸权体系以及内部的"美国再次伟大"美梦，只能继续接美债。 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 16th, the US December CPI year - on - year growth rate met expectations and remained the same as the previous value. Global geopolitical risks continued to impact the market. The US dollar index rose weekly. Stocks and commodities performed strongly, while the bond market declined. In terms of the US dollar, commodities > stocks > bonds. In the domestic market, the stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities rose weekly. Commodities > bonds > stocks. Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes [5][8][19]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, market sentiment was relatively cautious. Trump called for setting a 10% credit card interest rate cap starting from January 20, 2026, pressuring US stocks. Most global stock markets rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.75% weekly and 5.62% year - to - date, while the MSCI US fell 0.38% weekly but rose 1.39% year - to - date [10][13][14]. - **Global Bond Market**: Recently, most Fed officials' statements were hawkish, cooling market expectations of interest rate cuts. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 6BP to 4.24% weekly. The bond market was weak, and globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, data such as the US November retail sales month - on - month growth rate were good, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was volatile and strong. The US dollar index rose 0.23% weekly [16][17]. - **Global Commodity Market**: Geopolitical factors supported the weekly rise of international oil prices. Precious metal prices rose, while most non - ferrous metal and agricultural product prices fell. International silver prices rose significantly [17]. Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market risk appetite declined. Most major broad - based A - share indices rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks was weak. Computer and electronics sectors led in gains, while the military and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% weekly [20][22]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank's net open - market operations injected 111.28 billion yuan. The capital market fluctuated, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led in gains. For example, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 9.41% weekly [24][25]. Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes. It is necessary to pay attention to their subsequent changes [4][26].

1月14日 资讯分享 周二，由于美国通胀数据不及预期，以及持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了避险需求，现货黄金再 创历史新高，但交易员获利了结导致黄金回吐日内全部涨幅，最终收跌0.26%，报4585.95美元/盎司； 现货白银触及89.12美元的历史高点后回落，最终收涨2.14%，报86.91美元/盎司。 ADP周度就业报告：截至2025年12月20日的四周里，私人部门雇主平均每周增加11750个就业岗位。 美联储穆萨莱姆：短期内进一步放松政策的理由不多；仍认为通胀风险将比预期更为持久。 伊朗局势——①欧盟正在商讨额外对伊制裁措施。②川普：已取消与伊朗的所有会晤，伊朗将"付出巨 大代价"。 因川普承诺对任何与伊朗做生意的国家征收25%的关税，市场担忧伊朗在动荡期间可能减少出口，国际 原油走高。WTI原油最终收涨2.11%，报61.09美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收涨1.79%，报65.44美元/桶。 美国CPI增速在12月保持稳定，核心CPI略低于预期。川普称赞通胀数据，称鲍威尔应该大幅降息。美 联储传声筒：12月CPI不太可能改变当前的观望态度。 ...