Core Viewpoint - The latest U.S. inflation data indicates stable price trends, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2026 aligning with market expectations, although the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices has yet to be reflected in the data [2][4]. Inflation Data Summary - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year in February 2026, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, consistent with Dow Jones consensus predictions [4]. - Housing, the largest component of core CPI, saw a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year rise of 3%, with rent increasing only 0.1%, marking the smallest monthly increase since January 2021 [4]. - Food prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, while energy prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, indicating manageable fluctuations [4]. - Clothing prices surged by 1.3% month-on-month due to tariff pressures, while new car prices remained stable with a year-on-year increase of only 0.5%, and prices for used cars and auto insurance declined, contributing to lower overall prices [4]. Geopolitical Impact - The February CPI data was collected prior to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in Iran, which has led to significant increases in international oil prices, with New York crude futures surpassing $100 per barrel [5]. - The market anticipates that the inflationary effects of rising energy prices will become evident in future CPI data, introducing uncertainty into the U.S. inflation trajectory [5]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the CPI release, U.S. financial markets reacted mildly, with slight increases in Treasury yields across various maturities [7]. - The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting, with a 99.4% probability of no change [9]. - Expectations for rate cuts later in the year have diminished, with the probability of maintaining rates unchanged in June rising to 57.3% from 24.8% a month prior [9]. - Analysts suggest that the stable inflation data will not alter the Fed's monetary policy in the short term, with future inflation trends heavily dependent on developments in the Middle East and energy prices [9].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index continues to show weakness, characterized by short-term pressure and long-term depreciation trends, influenced by policy uncertainties and fundamental resilience [1] Fundamental Factors - Two main factors dominate the dollar's movement: 1. Fluctuating US trade policies, including recent tariff rulings and new policy signals, increase global trade uncertainty, suppressing dollar credibility and market risk appetite, while ongoing trade deficits amplify depreciation pressure [1] 2. Divergence in Federal Reserve policy expectations, with delayed rate cut expectations and cautious official statements increasing market hesitance, weakening the dollar's upward momentum [1] Economic Indicators - The robust US labor market and resilient economic recovery are key in preventing significant dollar declines, although they can only limit downward movement without reversing short-term weakness [1] Technical Analysis - The mid-term downtrend of the dollar index is clear, with short-term bearish dominance. The moving averages indicate a bearish arrangement, reinforcing the weak trend, and while the index is in an oversold region, there are no clear signs of a bottoming out, limiting rebound strength [1] Market Outlook - In the short term, the dollar index is expected to remain under pressure, with rebounds likely facing resistance. Future direction will depend on US inflation data, Federal Reserve policy developments, and the implementation of trade policies [2] - In the medium to long term, structural depreciation trends are unlikely to reverse due to high fiscal deficits and the trend of de-dollarization [2]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Revacy Fund, Zaheer Anwari, indicated that liquidity constraints on President's Day limited market volatility, leading to a modest rise in the dollar. However, the dollar faces risks of a decline due to weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which has strengthened expectations for further rate cuts later this year [1] Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) increased by 0.2% to 97.079 [1] - Market attention is shifting towards the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday, followed by personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data and fourth-quarter economic growth data on Friday [1] - If PCE data confirms a general slowdown in inflation, both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may decline [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the complexity of the market in 2026, suggesting that while a bull market continues, investors should adopt strategies like gradual position building and avoid chasing highs [1] - Recent data shows that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January rose by 0.2%, which is lower than market expectations, alleviating concerns about accelerating inflation and strengthening the expectation for more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [3] - The current gold price is experiencing fluctuations, recently reported at $5,025 per ounce after a 2.4% increase, indicating a return above the $5,000 mark, with short-term adjustments attributed to technical factors rather than fundamental weaknesses [2][3] Group 2 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement more than two rate cuts in 2026, with the first potential cut expected around June or July, as the market adjusts its pricing based on recent economic data [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold remains in a bullish trend despite recent fluctuations, with a need for market stimulation to break above $5,100 for a sustained upward movement [4] - Current trading strategies for gold suggest selling on rebounds near $5,100-$5,110 and buying on dips around $4,990-$4,995, with specific stop-loss and target levels outlined for both strategies [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline after reaching above $5000 per ounce, driven by moderate U.S. inflation data that alleviated concerns about larger CPI increases and supported expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices maintained around $5020 per ounce after a previous day increase of 2.4% [1] - In late January, gold prices surged to a record high of over $5595 per ounce due to speculative buying, followed by a sudden drop below $4500 at the end of the month [1] - Since then, gold prices have recovered approximately half of the losses experienced during the downturn [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in January, easing market fears of a larger increase [1] - The moderate inflation data is seen as supportive for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market rebounded on Friday after hitting a near one-week low, as investors await key U.S. inflation data to clarify the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction. Strong U.S. employment data previously suppressed rate cut expectations, putting pressure on gold prices this week [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 06:26 GMT, spot gold rose by 0.6% to $4,949.99 per ounce, but is still down 0.2% for the week, failing to reverse the weekly weakness [1]. - Gold futures for April delivery increased by 0.4% to $4,968 per ounce, mirroring the spot gold trend but also unable to change the weekly adjustment trend [1]. - On Thursday, gold fell approximately 3%, dropping below the critical support level of $5,000 per ounce, exacerbated by a stock market crash that increased selling pressure on gold [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Strong U.S. employment data released on Wednesday indicated a better-than-expected job market performance, reinforcing expectations that policymakers may maintain current interest rates for an extended period [3]. - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which will directly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and adjust investment strategies [3]. - There is a market expectation that the Federal Reserve will implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, with the first anticipated in June [3]. Group 3: Global Demand Factors - Changes in demand from major global gold consumption markets are also marginally impacting gold prices. India's gold market saw its first monthly discount this week due to weak demand, which has suppressed buying and selling willingness [3]. - The Chinese market experienced strong demand during the Lunar New Year, providing significant support for global gold demand [3]. Group 4: Other Precious Metals - Other precious metals also rebounded on Friday but did not reverse their weekly weakness. Spot silver rose by 1.5% to $76.31 per ounce, recovering part of Thursday's 11% decline, but is still expected to drop 2.1% for the week [4]. - Spot platinum increased by 0.9% to $2,018.44 per ounce, while palladium rose by 2.2% to $1,652.31 per ounce, both expected to show weekly losses [4]. - The rebound in gold and other precious metals is seen as a technical correction and does not change the overall weakness observed this week, with the core issue being the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported stable gold futures inventory, with significant fluctuations in gold prices influenced by U.S. economic data and market conditions [1] Group 1: Gold Futures Market - Total gold futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 105,072 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The main gold futures contract opened at 1,123.94 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,130.38 CNY and a low of 1,087.32 CNY, currently trading at 1,110.10 CNY, down 1.61% [1] - Trading volume for the day was 3,035.68 lots, with open interest decreasing by 1,412 lots to 153,140 lots [1] Group 2: Market Influences - Last night, gold prices dropped sharply, with New York gold falling nearly $200 per ounce, breaking below $5,000 per ounce, which corresponded to a decline in Shanghai gold prices to around 1,100 CNY per gram [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed slight strengthening, and January's non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, which led to a decrease in market rate cut expectations [1] - The Nasdaq index experienced a notable decline, indicating poor global market liquidity in the short term [1]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Non - farm data exceeded expectations, weakening the expectation of interest rate cuts. London platinum and palladium oscillated weakly, and trading in the Asian session was light approaching holidays, with volatility lower than before. The market has increasing differences in interpreting non - farm data, and Fed officials still have differences in their statements. In the short term, the trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may have a phased catch - up opportunity. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm. The supply uncertainty in South Africa and Russia and the implementation of new automobile emission policies make platinum more resilient than palladium, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market may continue. The report also gives the resistance and support levels for London platinum and palladium and the expected operating ranges for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 and palladium 2606 contracts [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 544.90 yuan/gram, down 5.80 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 430.05 yuan/gram, down 6.45 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10,387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3,179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 541.04 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River area was 410.00 yuan/gram, down 4.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 3.86 yuan/gram, up 1.46 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 20.05 yuan/gram, up 2.45 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 9,966.00, down 243.00; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 3,003.00, down 342.00. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 96.93, up 0.07; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.86%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 17.65, down 0.14. The US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages increased by 0.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and traders postponed the bet on Fed rate cuts from June to July [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred" choice. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 5.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 94.1%. The European Parliament voted to pass a financial assistance package for Ukraine, providing 90 billion euros in EU aid loans from 2026 to 2027, with 60 billion euros for Ukraine's defense needs [2]. 3.6 Key Areas of Concern - On March 12, at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 7; at 23:00, the total number of existing home sales in the US in January; and at 21:30, the US CPI data for January [2].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential significant changes in the Federal Reserve's policies by 2026, influenced by rising inflation data and political pressures from Trump [2] - There is a concern regarding the stability of the US financial system and whether the US dollar and treasury bonds will continue to serve as a global safe haven, depending on the actions taken by the Federal Reserve [2] - The article highlights the growing AI bubble and the role of technology companies like Nvidia in sustaining economic momentum, which poses risks for 2026 [2] Group 2 - Trump, upon returning to the White House, has continued to expand the US national debt, leading to a fallout with Elon Musk, indicating a more aggressive approach to debt management [4] - The article notes that the federal government has a persistent issue with overspending, relying on tariffs to generate approximately $300 billion annually, while the timeline for significant investments remains uncertain [4] - To maintain global dominance and fulfill the vision of "Make America Great Again," the US government is likely to continue increasing its debt levels [4]

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 16th, the US December CPI year - on - year growth rate met expectations and remained the same as the previous value. Global geopolitical risks continued to impact the market. The US dollar index rose weekly. Stocks and commodities performed strongly, while the bond market declined. In terms of the US dollar, commodities > stocks > bonds. In the domestic market, the stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities rose weekly. Commodities > bonds > stocks. Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes [5][8][19]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, market sentiment was relatively cautious. Trump called for setting a 10% credit card interest rate cap starting from January 20, 2026, pressuring US stocks. Most global stock markets rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.75% weekly and 5.62% year - to - date, while the MSCI US fell 0.38% weekly but rose 1.39% year - to - date [10][13][14]. - **Global Bond Market**: Recently, most Fed officials' statements were hawkish, cooling market expectations of interest rate cuts. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 6BP to 4.24% weekly. The bond market was weak, and globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, data such as the US November retail sales month - on - month growth rate were good, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was volatile and strong. The US dollar index rose 0.23% weekly [16][17]. - **Global Commodity Market**: Geopolitical factors supported the weekly rise of international oil prices. Precious metal prices rose, while most non - ferrous metal and agricultural product prices fell. International silver prices rose significantly [17]. Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market risk appetite declined. Most major broad - based A - share indices rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks was weak. Computer and electronics sectors led in gains, while the military and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% weekly [20][22]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank's net open - market operations injected 111.28 billion yuan. The capital market fluctuated, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led in gains. For example, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 9.41% weekly [24][25]. Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes. It is necessary to pay attention to their subsequent changes [4][26].