| Millio | > 國技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月25日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡回落。本周鲍威尔演讲中指出政策利率仍然略带限制性，强调政策将根据数据和经济前景灵 活调整。美联储多位官员讲话体观谨慎态度，对后续降息存在分歧。关注今晚美国周度初请失业金人数和周 五的PCE通胀数据以及美国政府停摆的解决进展。 贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但短期波动加剧保持观望。 ★美国财长贝森特:美联储利率已过高太久了;我们将进入宽松周期。鲍威尔本应发出100至150个基点降息 的信号。FOMC今年票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比警告不要进行一系列降息，称其对通胀问题仍存忧虑，下 次会议不愿支持降息；旧金山联储主席戴利则认为经济增长、劳动力等放缓，而 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of global and domestic major asset classes during the week of September 15-19, with a focus on macroeconomic data in the future [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points during this period, while U.S.-China trade talks took place in Spain, leading to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index [1] - Global stock markets experienced gains, while bond and commodity markets retreated, with asset performance ranked as stocks > bonds > commodities in U.S. dollar terms [1] Group 2 - In China, the growth rates for industrial added value and retail sales in August fell short of expectations, with fixed asset investment growth at 0.5% year-on-year for January to August, and a 12.9% year-on-year decline in national real estate development investment [1] - Domestic stock markets showed divergence, while bond and commodity markets fluctuated, with asset performance ranked as bonds > commodities > stocks [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with a need to monitor domestic and international macroeconomic data performance [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The US labor market has significantly weakened, with the overall non - farm employment revised down by 911,000 from April 2024 to March 2025, much higher than market expectations. The initial jobless claims in the week of September 6, 2025, also exceeded expectations. The inflation data shows that the US August PPI was significantly lower than expected, while the CPI was in line with or slightly higher than expectations. The market has increased the pricing of the Fed's interest rate cut. Silver prices will significantly benefit in the interest - rate cut cycle. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai Gold futures contract at 816 - 860 yuan/gram and the main Shanghai Silver futures contract at 9710 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Gold**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.39% to 834.00 yuan/gram, COMEX gold fell 0.25% to 3677.00 dollars/ounce. The London Gold rose 0.59% to 3651.10 dollars/ounce, and the Au(T + D) rose 0.51% to 830.34 yuan/gram. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.32% to 974.80 tons [2][4] - **Silver**: Shanghai Silver rose 1.22% to 10051.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX silver fell 0.47% to 42.63 dollars/ounce. The London Silver rose 2.88% to 42.26 dollars/ounce, and the Ag(T + D) rose 2.68% to 10034.00 yuan/kilogram. The SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.45% to 15069.60 tons [2][4] - **Other Markets**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.06%, the dollar index was 97.65. Stock market indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.59%, the S&P 500 down 0.05%, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.44%, etc [2][4] 3.2 Economic Data - **Employment Data**: From April 2024 to March 2025, the US private - sector non - farm employment was revised down by 880,000, and the government - sector employment was revised down by 31,000, with a total non - farm revision of 911,000, much higher than market expectations. The initial jobless claims in the week of September 6, 2025, were 263,000, higher than expected [2] - **Inflation Data**: The US August PPI was significantly lower than expected, with the year - on - year value at 2.6% (expected 3.3%, previous 3.3%), and the month - on - month value at - 0.1% (expected 0.3%, previous 0.7%). The core PPI also showed a decline. The August CPI was in line with or slightly higher than expectations, with the year - on - year value at 2.9% (previous 2.7%), and the month - on - month value at 0.4% (expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%) [2] 3.3 Market Expectations - The market expects a 93.38% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in the September 2025 meeting and a 6.62% probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. It also expects 25 - basis - point cuts in the October and December meetings [3] 3.4 Technical Data - **Gold Technical Data**: For COMEX gold on September 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 3680.70 dollars/ounce (up 0.20%), the trading volume was 147,600 lots (down 28.76%), the open interest was 509,600 lots (up 3.39%), and the inventory was 1210 tons (up 0.01%) [6] - **Silver Technical Data**: For COMEX silver on September 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 42.68 dollars/ounce (up 1.46%), the open interest was 156,700 lots (down 1.05%), and the inventory was 16405 tons (up 0.55%) [6] 3.5 Spread Data - **Gold Spread**: On September 12, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX gold spread was - 3.66 yuan/gram (- 15.97 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 3.55 yuan/gram (- 15.50 dollars/ounce) [64] - **Silver Spread**: On September 12, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 273.09 yuan/kilogram (1.19 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA silver spread was 377.78 yuan/kilogram (1.65 dollars/ounce) [64]

在纽周二约汇市，美元指数回吐了亚欧时段的全部涨幅，收盘下跌0.3%至97.52。这种趋弱态势主要源 于美国通胀数据虽微热但未超预期，以及初请失业金人数大增带来的鸽派情绪。 CPI数据并未真正改变美联储利率走向，市场更关注就业疲软，这让美元承压。美元走弱的直接受益者 便是黄金，因为以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的投资者而言变得更具吸引力。这在一定程度上解释 了金价为何能在通胀数据公布后迅速收窄跌幅。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日周五（9月12日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于833.56附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报833.24元/ 克，跌幅0.02%，最高触及833.60元/克，最低下探826.64元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美元汇率的波动往往与黄金价格呈负相关，而本次经济数据发布后，美元的回落进一步为金价提供了外 部助力。 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为840元/克至860元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于799元/克 至850元/克。 ...

【导读】 美国通胀数据稳定，美联储2025年进一步降息的可能性增加 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美联储降息的最新动向。 9月11日晚间，美国8月核心通胀如预期上升，美联储仍有望在下周降息。 备受关注的CPI读数中，权重约占三分之一的居住（住房）成本环比上涨0.4%，贡献最大；食品价格上涨0.5%；能源上涨 0.7%，其中汽油上涨1.9%。 用于押注美联储政策路径的合约显示，9月17日会议降息25个基点几乎"板上钉钉"。 在劳动力市场走弱的新迹象之下，交易员增加了对年内进一步降息的押注， 当前几乎计入约三次各25个基点的降息。 劳工统计局周四公布的数据显示，8月，消费者为多种商品和服务支付的价格涨幅高于预期，同时初请失业救济人数加速上升，这 在下周美联储议息前向决策者发出了相互矛盾的经济信号。 当月消费者价格指数（CPI）经季调环比上涨0.4%，为前一个月的两倍；同比通胀率为2.9%，较上月提高0.2个百分点，创1月以 来新高。经济学家此前预计环比上涨0.3%、同比上涨2.9%。 作为关键参考，剔除食品和能源的核心CPI8月环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨3.1%，均符合预期。美联储更看重这一指标来衡量长期 ...

换资前言： 当你点开这篇文章就代表你敢进入风险与机遇并存的投资市场，那么也就代表你有野心与魄力。投资交 易并不难，可是却还是有不少的亏损的朋友，这说明什么？说明曾经盲目过、失误过，选择错过。既然 此前错了，那么就要改正。没有注定的亏损，只要你不想一条道走到黑，对黄金市场还有渴望和期待， 那可以跟我再次感受一下这个市场的魅力！——我是分析师金晟富，不是所有的都适合，合适的只有一 个。你不将就，我不敷衍，愿投资路上幸运与你同行！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四(9月11日)亚市尾盘，现货黄金维持日内温和回落走势，目前金价位于3633美元/盎司附近。黄金整 固近期上升走势，为周四美国CPI这一风险事件做准备。目前金价低于历史高位3675美元/盎司。通胀报 告可能会导致金价朝任何一个方向波动。黄金的下一个决定性走势仍取决于8月份美国CPI报告，因为 它可能证实市场对美联储今年将三次降息的预期，同时也决定美联储下周是否会选择大幅降息。另一方 面，假如美国通胀数据出人意料地下行，将强化美联储今年将降息两次以上的预期，金价可能再创历史 新高。在周三公布8月份生产者通胀意外下降后，不能排除美 ...

在当前阶段，市场对英镑保持中性观点，预计汇率将继续维持区间震荡格局，投资者的关注点正转向即 将发布的英国秋季财政预算案及其可能带来的政策信号。展望未来货币政策，报告预计英国央行可能于 今年12月宣布降息，这一时间点早于市场目前的普遍预期。若英国央行提前进入降息周期，将显著削弱 英镑的利率优势，从而对汇率构成下行压力。相对利差一直是支撑英镑的重要因素，一旦收窄，可能使 英镑兑美元面临新的调整风险。 英镑兑美元日线在1.3400支撑位上方稳固企稳，并突破了短期均线压制。MACD快慢线形成金叉，动能 柱转向正值，显示多头力量增强。若汇价有效突破1.3570关口，则有望进一步上探1.3620及1.3680阻力 位；若回落，则初步支撑关注1.3500，其次为1.3440。整体走势偏向震荡偏强。 周四（9月11日）亚盘早盘，英镑兑美元暂报1.3523，跌幅0.04%，昨日收盘报1.3528。Monex Europe的 分析报告指出，本周四即将公布的美国通胀数据，将成为英镑兑美元汇率的下一个关键催化剂。 ...

日线技术指标显示，黄金的相对强弱指数（RSI）处于超买区间。这表明近期的上行趋势可能需要一定 整理，以消化高位买盘压力。 在支撑方面，3600美元及3580美元附近形成了初步防线，如金价下行突破，可能测试中期支撑区域 3565–3560美元甚至更低的历史低点3510美元。 上方阻力位则集中在近期高点3675美元及心理整数关口3700美元，这些水平将对进一步上涨形成考验。 市场对美联储货币政策的预期是影响黄金的重要因素。近期美国生产者价格指数（PPI）涨幅低于预 期，强化了市场对未来降息的预期。 若美联储实际降息，可能对美元形成压力，从而间接影响以美元计价的商品价格。值得关注的是，市场 仍在等待美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据的公布，这一数据将为市场判断通胀走势和货币政策方向 提供重要线索。 高于预期的CPI可能支撑美元，而低于预期则可能减缓美元走强的步伐。 这种避险需求会在一定程度上支撑黄金价格，使其在短期内表现出防御性特征。 除了宏观经济因素，市场对不确定性事件的敏感度也会对黄金价格产生影响。在金融市场、经济数据或 全球经济环境出现突发变化时，投资者通常会增加对避险资产的关注。 近期现货黄金价格在高位区 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show a short - term and mid - term upward trend, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly. Copper is also expected to have a short - term and mid - term upward trend, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices maintained high - level oscillating. New York gold oscillated below $3700, and Shanghai gold oscillated around 835 yuan. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22nd, gold prices have been on an upward trend, with foreign gold breaking through the high of the oscillation range since the second quarter of this year [3] - **Core Logic**: Recent stock markets at home and abroad have been oscillating, giving gold a safe - haven premium. In the short term, the upward momentum of gold prices is strong. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average when prices fall. Also, focus on tonight's US inflation data [3] Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last night, copper prices increased in volume and moved upwards, with the main contract price standing above the 80,000 - yuan mark [4] - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, the expectation of overseas economic decline is rising, which is negative for copper prices, while the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, which is positive. Industrially, the support of the domestic industrial peak season for futures prices is constantly strengthening. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro - environment and the industry entering the peak season, futures prices are expected to move strongly. Technically, the futures price increased in volume and stood above 80,000 yuan, with strong upward momentum [4]

换资前言： 9月10日，今天教师节，愿所有成为老师，或被称为老师的人，因在各自的领域不断使他们成长而快 乐！师者，传道，授业，解惑也。何为老师？不是知识的搬运工，而是打破信息壁垒，构建思维逻辑， 唤醒他人探索能力。一句老师，是尊重，更是认可，引领别人成长，也反推自我进步，一个人最大的价 值不是获得多少，而是能帮助多少人，利他才是最大的利己。 9.10黄金操作策略参考： 空单策略： 策略一：黄金早盘3670-3675附近分批做空（买跌）十分之二仓位，止损8个点，目标3660-3650附近， 破位看3640一线；（策略具有时效性，更多实施布局建议在钉钉实盘学员内部公布） 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三(9月10日)黄金价格徘徊在历史高位附近，因市场预期美联储本月将降息，同时投资者等待美国通 胀数据，以寻找美联储货币政策路径的更多线索。截至发稿，现货黄金上涨0.5%，至3,643.78美元，此 前周二曾创下3,673.95美元的历史新高。黄金在本周初延续涨势，此前上周五公布的又一份疲软非农就 业（NFP）报告继续推高市场对美联储鸽派政策的押注，推动实际利率走低，从而支撑金价上涨。金 ...