1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - From November 17th to November 21st, the US September non - farm data showed an unexpected increase in new employment but a higher unemployment rate. The US dollar index rose weekly, and global and domestic stocks, bonds, and commodities all declined to varying degrees. In general, in terms of US - dollar valuation, bonds > commodities > stocks. Investors' concerns about the Japanese market and AI have increased, and the volatility of major asset prices may increase. Attention should be paid to the release of US inflation data [3][6][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities All Declined - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Due to the uncertainty of US dollar interest rate cuts and the increasing concerns about AI, global major stock markets generally declined. The Asia - Pacific region had the largest decline, and emerging markets performed worse than developed markets. The VIX index rose significantly weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The September non - farm data failed to eliminate the differences among Fed officials, increasing the uncertainty of US dollar interest rate cuts. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds declined, and the yield of the 10 - year US bond fell by 8BP to 4.06% weekly. The bond market declined weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > national bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The game between the large - scale fiscal stimulus policy and the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy caused market concerns. The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies declined against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range. The US dollar index rose 0.87% weekly [16]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: The US proposed a "28 - point" new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the possible framework agreement between Russia and Ukraine led to a significant weekly decline in international oil prices. Precious metal prices continued to consolidate at high levels. The prices of major agricultural products rose, and non - ferrous metal prices generally declined [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks and Commodities Declined, and the Bond Market Fluctuated - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: Affected by the overseas market, major broad - based A - share indexes generally declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chip stocks were relatively resilient. In terms of sectors, power equipment and new energy, basic chemicals, etc. saw large declines. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9% weekly [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: From November 17th to November 21st, the central bank's net investment in the open market was 43.4 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively tight. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Overall, credit bonds > corporate bonds > national bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals had the largest decline [24]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to the Release of US Inflation Data - Recently, investors' concerns about the Japanese market and AI have increased, and the volatility of major asset prices may increase. Attention should be paid to the release of US inflation data [3][26].

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，9月美国非农数据是一份"总量边际回升、结构仍有瑕疵"的 就业报告，整体来看，相比于7-8月份，还是边际有所改善。但结合其他数据综合来看，10月份以来， 就业状况可能并未持续改善。该行指出，就业数据真空期或促使美联储在12月份暂停降息；但12月份不 降息，明年年初也会降息，从目前的就业和通胀情况来看，尚没有达到让美联储调整至可以保持较长时 间暂停降息的节奏；从中期来看，明年降息的大方向依然较为清晰。 华创证券主要观点如下： 9月非农数据简述 1、新增非农回升且好于预期。新增非农11.9万，预期5万。7月数据从7.9万下修至7.2万，8月数据从2.2 万下修至-0.4万。就业增长主要集中在2个行业，教育保健服务（+5.9万，前值+4.7万）、休闲和酒店业 （+4.7万，前值+3.2万）合计占总新增就业的约9成；其次是政府（+2.2万，前值-2.2万）、建筑（+1.9 万，前值-1.4万）、批发和零售。制造业、专业和商业服务的就业萎缩。 9月非农数据是一份"总量边际回升、结构仍有瑕疵"的就业报告，整体来看，相比于7-8月份，还是边际 有所改善。好的一方面是，1）非农就业人数明 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - After the macro events such as the China-US summit and the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's positive factors have been fully realized. However, the Fed has released a hawkish guidance, which exerts downward pressure on risk assets in Q4. The domestic economy still faces significant pressure, with the manufacturing PMI hitting a new low, indicating insufficient demand. But the incremental fiscal funds are expected to support the economy [4]. - The domestic economic data continues to be weak, especially in the consumption and real estate sectors. The high-frequency real estate sales data has declined significantly without incremental positive policies. The export orders shown by the PMI have dropped sharply, related to the end of the rush to export. The anti-involution policy is being promoted, resulting in a weak supply and demand in the real economy [4]. - The domestic liquidity is generally loose, with the government debt financing rising continuously and the marginal increase in open market money supply. The short-term liquidity is neutral, but the credit impulse in Q4 is marginally tightening. Passive ETF funds continue to be subscribed, and margin trading funds continue to flow in stably. The reduction intensity of industrial capital has slowed down. Overseas liquidity is marginally tightening under the Fed's hawkish guidance, and foreign capital has a marginal outflow tendency. The overall supply and demand of market funds are relatively optimistic, but there are also some differences, so beware of the risk of high-level style switching [4]. - After a sharp short-term rise, the valuations of various indices have reached relatively high levels in history. The stock-bond risk premiums at home and abroad are low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - Currently, the broad-based index market has high valuations, especially the growth style. The risk premium indices at home and abroad have dropped to low levels, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. With the large market scale, the limited liquidity is difficult to drive continuous growth. After the short-term macro positive factors are fully realized, the market enters a policy vacuum period. With the marginal support of fiscal funds for the economy in Q4, the overall macro fluctuations are expected to be small. The market may maintain a high-level range-bound trend, similar to that in Q4 last year. Focus on structural opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a high-sell and low-buy strategy for stock indices in November. Consider shorting IF, IC, and IM stock indices in the high-rebound area and going long on IF and IH stock indices in the sharp-drop low area. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on the cyclical style and shorting the growth style [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the past month, among global stock markets, the Nikkei 225 led the rise, while the Hang Seng Tech Index led the decline. Among domestic stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 4.05% [8][9]. - In the past month, among industries, coal led the rise, while media led the decline [12]. - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.19%, 0.14%, -0.35%, and 0.65% respectively. The discounts of IC and IM widened, while the discounts of IF and IH narrowed slightly. The changes in the inter - period spreads of the four major stock index futures were generally small, but the long - term discounts of IC and IM widened significantly [18]. Fund Flow - In October, margin trading funds flowed in 104.93 billion yuan to reach 2.5 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 0.08% to 2.58%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3.73373 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.81 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 211.724 billion shares, with a subscription of 76.25 billion shares from the previous month, and a subscription of 5.89 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 15.36 billion yuan [21]. - In October, equity financing was 49.44 billion yuan, with 6 companies. IPO financing was 12.16 billion yuan, private placement was 37.27 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 5.48 billion yuan. The equity financing scale decreased significantly, mainly due to the reduction in private placement. The market value of restricted - share lifting in October was 246.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.14 billion yuan from the previous month, mainly due to the one - week less trading time during the National Day holiday. The reduction scale in the recent week decreased marginally, with the monthly - annualized scale dropping to 211.28 billion yuan [24]. Liquidity - In October, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 5.8572 trillion yuan, with a reverse repurchase issuance of 5.2761 trillion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 58.11 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business tightened. The MLF issued 900 billion yuan and expired 700 billion yuan in October, with a net issuance of 20 billion yuan. The MLF has had a net issuance for 8 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is neutral to loose [26]. - In October, the DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 1.7bp, - 12.6bp, and - 5.8bp respectively to 1.46%, 1.41%, and 1.32%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 8.5bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 2.1bp to 1.64%. The capital supply tended to be loose, and the debt financing demand was strong. The capital price generally fluctuated at a low level [32]. - In October, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 8.1bp, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 5.6bp, and the 2 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 10.9bp. The 10 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 11.1bp, the 5 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 7.3bp, and the 2 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 6.8bp. Overall, the yield term structure steepened slightly in October, and both long - and short - term interest rates decreased significantly, mainly due to the weak economic data and the decline in financing demand. The credit spread between Treasury bonds and CDB bonds narrowed significantly at the long end, indicating a cooling of the broad - credit expectation [36]. - As of October 31, the 10 - year US Treasury bond rate changed by - 5.0bp to 4.11%, the inflation expectation changed by - 6.0bp to 2.30%, and the real interest rate changed by 1.00bp to 1.81%. The risk asset prices were first boosted and then suppressed by the financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 5.00bp to 51.00bp. The inversion of the China - US interest rate spread widened slightly by 1.12bp to - 231.42bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11%. The US dollar against the RMB fluctuated at a level below the mid - point of the three - year range [39]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - As of October 30, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.074 million square meters, a slight decrease from the previous week's 2.101 million square meters, returning to a relatively low level in the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, it decreased by 45.4%. The second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally and significantly from the previous month, returning to a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales showed a weak performance overall, with the sales center oscillating at a low level, and there were signs of marginal acceleration of weakening in the short term [43]. - As of October 31, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities in China remained at a high level, reaching 83.8 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a 32% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activity in the service industry heated up marginally. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded from the previous week, remaining at a neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activity in the service industry tended to a natural and stable growth level, with insignificant monthly changes [46]. - In October, the overall capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry decreased. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by - 2.25%, the asphalt capacity utilization rate changed by - 8.6%, the cement clinker enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by 5%, the coking enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by - 1.99%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by - 0.5% from the previous month. On the one hand, the implementation of the anti - involution policy led to a decrease in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the weakening of domestic and foreign demand in the manufacturing industry led to a reduction in enterprise operating rates [50]. - In terms of exports, after the tariff policies of the US on major countries have been finalized and the China - US summit postponed the tariff policy exemption for one year, the risk of a full - scale escalation of trade frictions has dropped sharply. After the previous export impulse effect, there is a risk of a pulse decline in Q4. China's manufacturing export competitiveness is strong, and after the decline in trade friction risks, it is expected to maintain its potential growth rate for a long time, supporting the economic center [58]. - In September, the US CPI inflation continued to rebound, while the core CPI inflation unexpectedly decreased, with a month - on - month decline of 0.1% to 3%. In terms of structure, energy prices contributed the main increase, the growth of food and beverages related to commodity inflation did not expand, and the housing and medical sub - items related to core inflation declined significantly, especially the housing sub - item, which decreased by 0.2% in a single month, indicating that the policy of expelling illegal immigrants began to affect core inflation again. Assuming that the month - on - month growth rate in October remains at 0.3% and drops to 0.2% from November to December, the annualized month - on - month rate at the end of the year will drop to 2.84%, and the Fed has limited room for further interest rate cuts this year [59]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October as expected by the market, but Powell released a hawkish guidance in the press conference, expressing concerns about the lag effect of tariffs on inflation and stating that the overall economic pressure was not large, and the preventive interest rate cuts were expected to end. The financial market significantly revised the overly optimistic market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of another interest rate cut in December 2025 dropped significantly to 63%, and the market will maintain a wait - and - see attitude until next April. The expected terminal interest rate for this year's interest rate cuts is between 3.5% - 3.75% [63]. Other Analyses - In the past month, the stock - bond risk premium was 2.56%, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous month, at the 44.1% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 3.39%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, at the 16.7% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level [66]. - The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.4%, 86.6%, 95.7%, and 85.3% quantiles respectively in the past five years, with relatively high valuation levels. The quantiles changed by 0.3%, - 1.6%, - 4%, and - 0.3% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices increased marginally [70]. - According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market in November is in a period of seasonal oscillation and structural differentiation. In terms of style, the growth style takes the lead first, followed by the cyclical style, with an overall high - level oscillation. The profit - making effect of the stock market in November is generally poor, and the style switches frequently. Considering the high valuation of the current growth style, the weak real - economy situation, and the full realization of positive factors, it is prone to high - level adjustments. Since the IF, IH, and IC are highly related to AI technology, all styles have adjustment risks. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the cyclical style's supplementary increase and the switch from the growth style to AI applications. Go long on IF and IH in case of a sharp drop, and conduct high - sell and low - buy operations on IC and IM [74].

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that September inflation figures fell below expectations, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3% month-over-month, lower than both August's increase and market expectations of 0.4% [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The September CPI increased by 0.3%, which is lower than the 0.4% increase expected by the market and the previous month's increase [1] - The slight recovery in CPI data raises questions about the market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting remains high at over 95% [1] - Despite the high probability of a rate cut, the Federal Reserve has not yet halted its balance sheet reduction plan, indicating that it has not fully entered a loose monetary policy phase and is maintaining a neutral to hawkish stance [1] - Some Federal Reserve officials have suggested that they may consider stopping the balance sheet reduction as key economic data shows signs of weakness [1]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Research team anticipates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00% due to ongoing high risks in the U.S. labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Forecast** - The FOMC is expected to reduce the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% [1] - A further rate cut of 25 basis points is anticipated in December [1] - Additional rate cuts are projected for March and June of 2026 [1] - **Economic Indicators** - The outlook is influenced by persistent risks in employment and minimal changes in inflation data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the U.S. September CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [1] Inflation Data Analysis - Rent and used car prices have significantly dragged down the CPI, reflecting weakened demand in these sectors [1] - CICC speculates that this may be related to Trump's immigration policies, which have restricted and expelled immigrants [1] - Prices of goods affected by tariffs have shown mixed trends, with the rate and extent of price increases being lower than CICC's previous expectations [1] - This indicates weak terminal demand, making it difficult for companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers [1] - Service inflation remains robust [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Overall, the inflation data appears moderate, supporting the Federal Reserve's potential decision to continue lowering interest rates [1] - Given the downward risks in the labor market, CICC anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. September CPI adjusted month-on-month increased by 0.3%, with a year-on-year rise to 3.0%, while core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, falling short of market expectations [1] - Rent and used car prices were significant drags on inflation, indicating weakened demand in these sectors, potentially linked to immigration policies [1] - Price changes for goods affected by tariffs were mixed, with the rate and magnitude of price increases lower than previously anticipated, reflecting weak end-demand and challenges for companies in passing on tariff costs to consumers [1] - Service inflation remains robust, suggesting underlying inflationary pressures in the service sector [1] - Overall, the inflation data appears moderate, supporting the Federal Reserve's potential decision to continue lowering interest rates [1] - Given the downward risks in the labor market, the expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown may prevent the release of October inflation data, marking a historical first for such an occurrence [3][4][6] - The White House indicated that the inability to collect price data due to the shutdown could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding monetary policy in December [5][6] - Analysts warn that the absence of key economic data could lead to increased uncertainty for both the market and policymakers, potentially impacting market confidence and financial stability [6][8] Group 2 - The September inflation data was lower than expected, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, which is the highest level since June 2024 [7][8] - The lower-than-expected CPI data has led traders to increase bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut next week and a total of 120 basis points over the next 12 months [7][8] - The housing component significantly influenced the unexpected decline in September inflation, while tariffs have had a relatively mild impact on overall price levels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown may prevent the release of October inflation data for the first time in history, creating significant uncertainty for the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy decisions [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The White House warns that due to the ongoing government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be unable to collect essential price data, leading to a potential absence of the October inflation report [2][3] - The BLS has paused all active data collection activities during the shutdown, which will delay the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report originally scheduled for November 13 [2][3] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve - Analysts indicate that the lack of key economic data will complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates in December, increasing uncertainty about future inflation trends [3][4] - The absence of inflation data may force the Federal Reserve to make rate decisions without critical information, leading to a "blind flying" scenario [3][4] Group 3: Recent Inflation Data - The September inflation data released prior to the shutdown showed a lower-than-expected increase, with the CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, which is the highest level since June 2024 [5][6] - The core CPI for September also rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, both below market expectations [6] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the release of the September CPI data, traders increased bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut next week and a total of 120 basis points over the next 12 months [6][7] - The positive sentiment from the inflation data contributed to a surge in U.S. stock markets, with major indices reaching all-time highs [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of recent economic data, particularly the CPI, on gold prices and market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1][2][3] - The recent CPI data showed a weaker-than-expected inflation rate, with the overall CPI rising only 0.3% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, both below market expectations [2] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield dropping to 3.966%, reflects market sentiment that the Fed may lower interest rates in the near term, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2][3] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a rebound after the CPI data release, with prices recovering from a low of approximately $4044 to around $4123.7, although there is a possibility of ending a nine-week upward trend [1][2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a corrective phase, with key support at $4000 and resistance at $4160. A break below $4000 could signal a larger adjustment, while a breakout above $4160 could lead to further gains [3][5] - The market anticipates a nearly 99% probability of a rate cut by the Fed during the upcoming meeting on October 29-30, with expectations for further easing in December [2][3]