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申万宏观·周度研究成果(9.06-9.12)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-09-14 13:44
Group 1: Deep Dive on "14th Five-Year Plan" - The article discusses the ongoing signals from the central government regarding industrial structure adjustments, emphasizing the path taken in the previous five-year plan and how the "14th Five-Year Plan" will advance these adjustments [8]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed a cooling trend, leading the market to shift from "rate cut trades" to "recession trades," raising questions about the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. - A mini-storm in sovereign debt markets has emerged due to a significant rise in overseas risk-free interest rates, prompting a risk-off sentiment in global financial markets [11][12]. - The article highlights that the decline in exports in August is not due to a "export rush" tapering off, but rather other underlying factors [16]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The analysis of the August CPI indicates that core CPI structure shows two main characteristics: limited transmission of tariffs on goods inflation and a weakening in super-core service inflation [21]. - The commentary on the recent U.S. employment data indicates a weakening trend, which has contributed to the continued rise in gold and silver prices [23].