美国就业数据造假
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特朗普要操控美联储?任命亲信当理事,还施压降息50点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-11 14:45
Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which was intended to address weak employment data, raises concerns about political interference and the integrity of economic data [1][4][9]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's appointment of a White House official to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors undermines the established independence of the central bank, which is meant to operate free from government influence [3][4]. - The potential for further appointments by Trump could lead to a scenario where the Federal Reserve's decisions are dictated by political motives rather than economic principles [4][7]. Group 2: Employment Data Concerns - Recent employment data has been called into question, with a significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs in the official statistics for the period from April 2024 to March 2025, indicating that previously reported job growth was overstated [4][5]. - The decline in survey response rates and lack of funding for statistical improvements contribute to the unreliability of the data that the Federal Reserve relies on for decision-making [5][6]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - There is significant division among the Federal Reserve's board members regarding future interest rate cuts, with opinions ranging from two additional cuts to a potential rate hike [6][7]. - The conflicting views stem from the need to balance weak employment data against rising inflation and an overheated stock market, leading to uncertainty in policy direction [7][8]. Group 4: Implications for the Economy - If the Federal Reserve becomes overly influenced by political pressures, it risks losing its credibility as an independent economic authority, which could undermine global confidence in the U.S. dollar and its financial system [8][9]. - The current situation poses a threat not only to the U.S. economy but also to the global economic landscape, as a loss of trust in the Federal Reserve could lead to significant market volatility [8][9].