Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson anticipates a growth rate of approximately 1.5% for the U.S. economy for the remainder of the year, indicating potential pressure on the job market without Fed policy support [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Inflation - Jefferson supports a 25 basis point rate cut during the Fed's policy meeting on September 16-17 to balance the risks of persistent inflation above target levels and the observed threats to the job market [1] - He expects inflation to begin declining towards the Fed's 2% target after this year [1] Group 2: Job Market and Policy Uncertainty - The current job market is gradually softening, suggesting that without support, it may face pressure [1] - Jefferson highlights high uncertainty in his baseline forecast due to the impacts of the current U.S. government's new policies on employment and inflation [1] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - The effects of trade, immigration, and other policies from the Trump administration are still evolving [1] - Although tariffs have a lower impact on inflation and other economic areas than some economists expected, Jefferson believes these effects will become more apparent in the coming months [1] Group 4: Interest Rate Adjustments - The Fed has already lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate adjustment since December of the previous year [2] - Following the last policy meeting, policymakers forecast two additional rate cuts for the remainder of the year [2]