铜、铝、黄金等，建议以逢低做多为主 在下半年可能迎来美联储再度降息的预期下，市场对于降息对大宗商品价格的影响关注度再度升温。然 而，关于美联储降息对大宗商品价格的影响，市场存在分歧：一部分观点认为，美联储降息往往意味着 经济增长放缓，并且从历史数据来看，降息的同时大宗商品价格下跌的情况较为常见；但也有观点认 为，降息能够刺激经济增长、释放流动性，进而对大宗商品价格起到提振作用。本文基于历史数据，阐 述利率变动路径对大宗商品价格的传导逻辑，深入分析下半年及后续的降息可能性，并进一步探索大宗 商品在降息预期下的交易逻辑。 A降息周期中经济的表现 1982年以来，美国经历了大小11轮降息周期，本轮降息周期开始于去年9月，到目前为止本轮降息周期 中共降息100个基点，利率从5.25%~5.5%调整至4.25%~4.5%。美联储开启降息周期一般是面对较大的经 济下行压力，甚至进入危机模式之时。与加息周期相比，降息周期基准利率调整的节奏一般更为连续而 迅速，降息很少出现降一次后就暂停降息的情况，而且降息幅度往往较大。 1982年之前的美联储降息周期大多处于大通胀时代，其间经济绝大部分时间处于停滞或负增长的状态， 叠加高企 ...

新华社华盛顿8月22日电 综述｜鲍威尔暗示降息 通胀就业难平衡 通常来说，高通胀要求美联储保持高利率，而就业市场放缓将推动其降低利率。但观察人士认为，尽管 就业市场疲软与政治压力构成降息推力，但通胀黏性与政策滞后效应使美联储倾向于"以时间换空间"， 今年以来在货币政策方面一直"按兵不动"。 美国就业市场7月明显降温。美国劳工部8月份公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至 4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，表现逊于市场预期的11万。 美国7月份通胀压力维持6月份以来的上升势头，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨3.1%，远高于美联储制定的2%目标。 在美联储内部，降息信号引来质疑。圣路易斯联储银行行长阿尔伯托·穆萨莱姆22日表示，目前美国通 胀高于美联储2%的目标，就业市场的风险也尚未真正到来，在决定支持美联储9月降息之前，需要更多 数据支撑。 新华社记者徐静 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔22日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会上发表讲话，暗示尽 管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储仍可能在未来数月降息。 鲍威尔当天表示，短期内美国通胀风险偏向上行， ...

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 775.50 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.35% [1] - The highest and lowest points for gold futures today were 777.50 CNY and 775.40 CNY respectively, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] Group 2 - Allianz Group's chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, believes that the Federal Reserve may be acting too slowly regarding interest rate cuts [3] - El-Erian suggests that the Fed should have initiated rate cuts last month, highlighting the risks of relying too heavily on data [3] - Recent inflation data presents a mixed picture, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose significantly by 3.3% compared to the previous year [3] - Despite rising inflation, El-Erian notes that price growth expectations remain relatively stable due to structural changes in the supply side of the economy [3] - The U.S. job market is showing signs of deterioration, with July's job creation falling short of expectations and previous months' job growth data revised down by a total of 258,000 [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 788 CNY and 847 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 773 CNY and 830 CNY [4]

美东时间周三，高盛在研究报告中表示，预计美联储今年将降息三次，每次25个基点，2026年再降息两 次。这将使美联储终端利率从目前的4.25%-4.50%降至3%至3.25%之间。 同时从细分数据来看，美国7月汽油价格环比下跌2.2%。食品价格在连续两个月环比上涨0.3%后涨势停 歇，7月环比持平。 在这一背景下，高盛预计，美联储将在今年9月、10月和12月分别降息3次，每次25基点。 早在一周前，在美国公布疲弱的非农数据报告、尤其是大幅下修了前两个月的就业增长数据后，高盛就 表示，近期就业报告的修正是过去57年来，除经济衰退期外最显著的调整。这意味着过去一年每月的就 业增长预期可能会减少 4.5 万至 8 万个。 高盛当时称，在疲弱的就业市场背景下，9月降息已经是极大概率事件，讨论的重点应该是降息25基点 还是50基点。 而在本周二的CPI公布后，高盛认为，CPI数据表明近期与关税相关的价格压力将在很大程度上是暂时 的，这些措施尚未导致消费者价格大幅上涨。高盛认为，这份CPI 报告强化了9月份"保险性"降息的说 法，即更倾向于降息25基点，以保护经济免受下行风险。 高盛预计，未来几个月市场注意力将转向美国就业 ...

人民财讯8月13日电，华泰证券指出，美国7月通胀数据显示关税对通胀的传导较为温和，根据Cavallo 等研究显示，关税宣布后10—15周（3—4个月）商品价格上涨达到最大，关税的传导较为迅速，但是由 于企业感知的需求偏弱，企业仅将50—60%关税压力传导给消费者，避免了通胀的更大幅度上行。往前 看，由于8月美国对外关税有一定程度上升，预计关税仍可能继续温和推高核心通胀，但企业需求偏弱 以及就业市场走弱对通胀的上行幅度构成制约，而需求放缓以及驱逐非法移民加速意味着三季度就业市 场仍面临压力，因此维持美联储9月首次降息、年内降息2次的判断。 （原标题：华泰证券：维持美联储9月首次降息、年内降息2次的判断） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the nomination of E.J. Antony by President Trump to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) following the dismissal of the previous director due to dissatisfaction with employment data [1][4]. - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [2][4]. - Antony, who has been critical of the previous employment data, is expected to ensure the accuracy of the data published by the BLS, which has faced scrutiny regarding its reliability [1][5]. Group 2 - The nomination comes just before the scheduled release of July inflation data, with expectations that consumer prices will rise for the third consecutive month due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [4]. - Concerns have been raised about the reliability of U.S. economic data, with a significant number of economists expressing worries about the declining quality of data collection and reporting by the BLS [5]. - The BLS has faced challenges such as reduced staffing and budget cuts, leading to a decrease in the sample size for the Consumer Price Index and the cessation of certain data releases, which may further compromise data integrity [5].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, citing recent weak labor market data as a reinforcement of this stance [1][3] - Bowman emphasizes the need to avoid further unnecessary deterioration in the labor market and reduce the likelihood of larger policy corrections in the future [3] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicates that the timing for rate cuts is approaching due to evidence of a weakening job market and the absence of persistent tariff-induced inflation [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Federal Reserve will begin a series of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [3][4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with Bowman and another governor voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - Recent labor market data shows a significant underperformance, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000, and revisions to previous months indicating a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [4] Group 3 - Inflation data reveals that the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, indicating stable inflation [5] - The core PCE price index for June also increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [5] - Upcoming key economic data releases, including July CPI, PPI, and retail sales, are anticipated to provide important insights for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [5][6]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of slowing down, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 in July, below the market expectation of 104,000, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months, resulting in an average increase of only 35,000 jobs over the past three months, the worst since the end of the pandemic [1] - The unemployment rate in July rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, in line with expectations, while average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing both June's increase and the expected 3.8% [1] - The ISM manufacturing index fell to 48 in July from 49 in June, indicating further contraction, contrary to expectations of a rebound to 49.5 [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell emphasizing that the current moderate tightening policy remains appropriate despite risks in the labor market [3] - Market expectations indicate an 87% probability of two rate cuts by the end of the year, following a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [4] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on reasonably valued quality stocks that would benefit from rate cuts and diversifying stock portfolios into non-U.S. markets, while maintaining a neutral duration in bond portfolios to manage interest rate market volatility [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased significantly, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy as employment data shows weakness and inflation trends downward [2][7][8]. Group 1: Balance Sheet Overview - The total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is $6.6408 trillion, down $17.35 billion from the previous week [2]. - The asset side includes $4.2045 trillion in Treasury securities and $2.1207 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [2]. - The reserve balance reached $3.3304 trillion, showing an increase from the previous week [6]. Group 2: Liquidity Release - A total liquidity release of approximately $332.02 billion occurred this week, driven by a decrease in reverse repos and an increase in fiscal deposits [4][5]. Group 3: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [7]. - Job data for the previous two months was revised downwards, indicating a weakening hiring momentum [7]. - Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, suggested that the Fed may need to consider rate cuts in the coming months due to the cooling job market [7][8]. Group 4: Inflation Trends - Excluding tariff impacts, inflation in the U.S. is showing a gradual decline, supported by economic slowdown and tightening monetary policy [8]. - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is low at 6.4%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is high at 93.6% [8].

Employment Data - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 106,000 and the previous value of 14,000[3] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, with the previous value at 4.1% and the forecast at 4.3%[3] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for May and June, with May's initial value of 139,000 adjusted down to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, totaling a downward revision of 253,000[3] Labor Market Trends - The average monthly job growth over the past three months is now only 35,000, a sharp decline from the first quarter's average of 111,000, indicating a potential overestimation of previous employment strength[3] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2%, contributing to the stability of the unemployment rate despite job losses[10] - The number of foreign-born workers decreased by 1.241 million from January to July, while the domestic-born workforce increased by 3.073 million, affecting overall labor supply[12] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock markets fell, bond yields declined, and the dollar weakened, reflecting heightened market risk aversion[5] - The disappointing employment figures have led to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and October[5] - Key factors for the Fed's decision will include inflation data for July and August and the potential impact of political pressures from the Trump administration[15]