宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 美国 9 月就业数据：经济与政策不确定性 未能出清 研究结论 风险提示 就业数据持续产生预期差的风险。 美国经济陷入衰退的风险。 通胀超预期上行的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 美东时间 11 月 20 日，美国政府重开后劳工部延迟公布 9 月美国非 ...

新增非农就业高于预期，建筑业、零售业、休闲酒店业就业回暖 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2025年11月20日，美国劳工部公布2025年9月非农数据：新增非农就业11.9万人，预期5.0万人，前值由2.2 万人修正为-0.4万人；9月失业率4.4%，预期4.3%，前值4.3%；平均时薪同比升3.8%，预期升3.7%，前值 升3.7%。 核心观点： 9月美国新增非农就业超预期，指向就业市场依然稳健。从新增就业规模看，9月非农就业人口增11.9万 人，高于市场预期的增5.0万人。其中，9月服务业新增就业从前值的5.0万人增至8.7万人，商品生产部门 新增就业从前值的-3.2万人增至+1.0万人。 从降息角度看，9月非农数据高于预期，且10月和11月的就 ...

从资本市场反应来看，美债市场在数据公布后先出现跳涨，随后有所回落。截至视频发布时，美债价格 仍处于回落状态，但后续仍有可能继续上涨。美债价格上涨意味着收益率下降，这被市场解读为美联储 可能在12月降息的信号。不过，市场对此仍存在纠结，需进一步观察后续走势。 美国9月非农就业数据刚刚公布，这份数据极为关键，因为它是在12月议息会议前唯一一份官方数据。 由于10月的数据确定不会发布，而11月的数据又将在议息会议之后才公布，因此市场高度关注9月的这 份数据，以此作为判断是否降息的重要依据。 9月非农就业数据新增人数为11.9万人，而8月新增人数仅为2.2万人。市场此前预期新增人数约为5万多 人，因此11.9万人的新增数据明显超出预期，显示出美国就业市场仍具有一定韧性。然而，与正常水平 （15万至20万人）相比，这一数据仍略显不足，这表明就业市场仍有提升空间，也为继续降息提供了一 定的理由。不过，最终是否降息还需看美联储主席鲍威尔的决策。 另一组值得关注的数据是失业率。9月失业率上升至4.4%，而8月为4.3%，市场此前预期维持在4.3%。 失业率的上升在一定程度上支持了继续降息的观点。 美元指数在数据公布后短暂上涨 ...

U.S. employers added a surprisingly solid 119,000 jobs in September, the government said, issuing a key economic report that had been delayed for seven weeks by the federal government shutdown. ...

转自：新华财经 美国就业市场无疑正在降温，呈现供需双弱的局面。8月美国新增非农就业人数为2.2万人，低于市场预期的7.5万人，前两个月累计下修2.1万人。其中，6月 数据进一步下修2.7万人至-1.3万人，是自2020年12月以来新增非农就业首次转负。 美国就业表现却显著转冷，成为美联储重启降息的直接动因。今年5-8月，新增非农就业人数均值仅2.7万，较1-4月中枢下移9.6万；8月失业率破位上行至 4.3%，创2021年11月以来新高。 东海证券分析师刘思佳表示认为，进入2025年三季度以来，美国非农数据可谓"事故频发"：在7月非农数据不及预期之后，5、6月数据遭到大幅下修，再到8 月非农数据的"全面遇冷"，美国就业市场不断响起警钟。 "我们认为受数据统计模型误差扩大影响以及兼职和员工休假扰动，美国非农就业新增数据或存在高估情况。"刘思佳称美国就业市场形势或比数据表现来得 更加严峻。 虽然在政府停摆期间美国9月与10月非农数据未如期披露，但其他私营机构披露的数据显示美国就业市场压力持续较大。 美国ADP就业报告（俗称"小非农"）此前发布的数据显示，9月全美私营部门新增就业人数减少3.2万人，远低于市场预期的 ...

ATFX汇评：今日21:30，美国劳工部劳动统计局将补发9月份非农就业报告。9月份非农报告本应在10月3日公布，但由于美国政府10月份的停摆，发布日 期被大幅延后。同样被政府停摆延误的10月份非农就业报告尚无具体发布时间，有观点认为，由于基础数据没有采集，这份报告将永远无法公布。 ▲ATFX图 9月非农就业报告中最受关注的数据是新增非农就业人口，前值为2.2万人，预期值5万人，预期增幅较大，但绝对值仍偏低。2024年，美国月度新增非农 就业人口曾达到32.3万人的水平，不过，现如今2.2万人的增量，不及去年的零头。历史数据看，5月份开始，美国就业市场开始恶化，连续四个月新增非 农就业人口低于10万人，6月份甚至出现负值。主要原因是美国总统特朗普严厉打击非法移民，导致新增就业人口数据当中的移民成分骤减，还有美国AI 产业发展导致企业招聘力度下降。糟糕的就业局面已经促成美联储在9月和10月两次利率决议上宣布降息，如果局面无法改善，预计12月份美联储还有降 息动作。 9月小非农ADP的公布值为-3.2万人，低于前值5.4万人和预期值5万人，表现较差。ADP数据和非农数据联动，预计9月份新增非农就业人口数据仍有可能 ...

Group 1 - The average weekly layoffs in the U.S. reached 11,250, indicating a slowdown in the labor market momentum in the second half of October compared to earlier in the month [1] - The ADP report showed that the U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, marking the first increase after two months of decline, but the overall growth rate remains weak [1] - October's total announced layoffs by U.S. employers reached the highest level for the same month in over 20 years, raising concerns about the employment outlook [1] Group 2 - Due to the ongoing longest government shutdown in U.S. history, the official non-farm payroll reports for September and October have not been released, leading the market to rely on private data from ADP [2] - Goldman Sachs economists predict that if employees participating in the "government delayed resignation plan" are included, the overall non-farm employment in October may decrease by about 50,000, indicating further risks of labor market deterioration [2]

Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data may be overestimated, with a significant downward revision of 344,000 jobs in Q1 2024 due to the Birth-Death Model's lagging indicators[10] - The CES (Current Employment Statistics) data may have overestimated non-farm employment by approximately 635,000 jobs from January to August 2025, influenced by an increase in multiple jobholders and a decrease in unpaid leave[15] - The CES survey response rate has declined from 60% in January 2020 to 42.6% in March 2025, indicating a potential increase in statistical errors[13] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Since March 2025, the U.S. has seen a net loss of 1.48 million immigrant workers, while native labor supply has increased by 1.861 million[23] - The "native substitution" effect is unlikely to be sustainable due to the aging population and the inability of native workers to fill the gaps left by departing immigrants[33] - The labor market is experiencing a trend of declining hiring rates and slightly increasing layoff rates, with a pessimistic outlook on job switching due to low wage growth[20] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The cyclical industries, such as leisure and hospitality, construction, and manufacturing, are showing significant employment slowdowns, with the construction sector particularly affected by a cooling housing market[40] - The leisure and hospitality sector has a high turnover rate, with a youth participation rate of 34.48% and a part-time rate of 44.1%, leading to a unique "high demand, high supply" balance[47] - Non-cyclical sectors like education and healthcare are facing downward risks, with the healthcare sector experiencing job losses of at least 70,000 in the past year due to policy changes and layoffs[29]

Core Insights - The U.S. jobs market is stable but not improving, indicating a stagnation that may persist in the near future [1] Employment Trends - Job growth has slowed down, with recent reports showing minimal changes in employment figures [1] - The unemployment rate remains steady, suggesting that while the market is not deteriorating, it is also not experiencing significant growth [1] Economic Implications - The stagnation in the jobs market could have broader implications for consumer spending and economic growth [1] - Analysts suggest that without substantial job creation, the overall economic recovery may face challenges [1]

Core Insights - The job market in the U.S. shows signs of weakness, with a decline in job postings and mixed employment data indicating a cooling labor market [1][1][1] Employment Data - The number of job postings on Indeed has dropped to the lowest level since 2021 [1] - The ADP employment report for October shows an increase of 42,000 jobs, marking the largest gain since July 2025 and exceeding market expectations [1] - Revelio Labs estimates a reduction of 9,100 jobs in October, primarily due to layoffs in government sectors [1] - Challenger's report indicates that the number of layoffs in October reached 153,074, a year-on-year increase of 175%, the largest in seven months; year-to-date layoffs are up 65% [1] Market Commentary - UBS Group notes that ADP and Challenger data suggest a persistently weak labor market [1] - TS Lombard indicates that recent data does not show further deterioration in the employment market [1] - Inflation Insights highlights that despite net job growth reported by ADP, the increase remains weak, reflecting a struggling labor market [1] - Oxford Economics states that ADP data lacks national representativeness and should complement, not replace, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment surveys [1] - Bank of America observes that while the U.S. job market continues to slow, there has not been a substantial change compared to the already turbulent September [1] - EY emphasizes that either due to weak hiring demand or the emergence of new technologies like AI, business leaders perceive a reduced need for talent, which will be a future reality [1] Federal Reserve Officials' Remarks - Federal Reserve Governor Barr emphasizes the need to ensure a robust job market [1] - Fed official Hamak acknowledges the cooling job market but notes that recent data remains healthy [1] - Fed official Mousalem mentions a slowdown in the job market, yet it remains close to full employment [1] - Fed Governor Milan describes the ADP data as a pleasant surprise, suggesting that pre-government shutdown employment trends persist [1] - Fed official Goolsbee points out that the Chicago Fed's new biweekly unemployment rate estimate indicates a potential rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in October, with most labor market indicators showing that the job market remains relatively stable [1]