沃勒表示，他对这些积极的数据表示欢迎，但同时表示，他担心这些数据"可能噪音多于信号"，尤其是 报告中的数据修正也显示，2025年净增就业岗位几乎为零。他说，这表明2025年的就业市场"疲 弱"且"脆弱"。 美联储理事沃勒周一表示，如果即将公布的2月份就业数据显示，美国劳动力市场继2025年表现疲软 后"转向更为稳固的状态"，那么他对在美联储3月会议上维持利率不变持开放态度。 沃勒在为全国商业经济协会会议准备的讲稿中表示，1月份新增就业岗位意外强劲，达到13万个，属 于"超预期上行"，如果这一态势在2月份得以延续，"我对适宜货币政策的看法可能会倾向于在即将召开 的会议上暂停行动"。 "但如果1月份就业市场的利好消息被修正或在2月份消失，这将支持我在联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）上次会议上的立场，即政策利率下调25个基点是合适的，应该在3月份的会议上降息，"他补 充道。 沃勒曾在美联储1月会议上对维持利率不变的决定投出反对票，他当时表示，鉴于就业增长疲软以及他 所认为的失业率可能上升的风险，将政策利率再下调25个基点是合适的。 当时，他仍在美国总统特朗普考虑的美联储主席人选范围内，特朗普一直呼吁美联储大幅降息。 ...

接下来是核心PCE物价指数。PCE物价指数是衡量美国通胀情况的重要指标之一，对于预测货币政策走 向具有重要影响。核心PCE物价指数排除了食品和能源价格波动的干扰，更能反映出底层消费价格的变 动趋势。市场普遍预期，随着美联储持续加息，十二月核心PCE物价指数可能出现环比上涨、同比略有 回落的情况。如果该数据表现如预期，可能会为美联储提供进一步收紧货币政策的信心。但具体如何影 响，还需结合其他经济指标进行综合判断。 美国至二月十四日当周初请失业金数据与十二月核心PCE物价指数公布分析 近日，美国公布了其至二月十四日当周的初请失业金数据，同时宣布即将公布十二月核心PCE物价指 数。这两个数据对于理解美国经济状况，尤其是就业市场和通胀状况，具有非常重要的意义。 首先，让我们关注初请失业金数据。初请失业金人数是衡量美国经济健康状况的重要指标之一。当周初 请失业金人数的变化可以反映出就业市场的动态，为预测经济走势提供依据。此次数据的公布，显示出 美国就业市场总体保持稳定，初请失业金人数低于预期，表明就业增长仍然强劲。这也进一步证明了美 国经济的韧性，为美联储继续实施紧缩政策提供了信心支持。 总的来说，美国的初请失业金数据 ...

美国1月就业数据"全面向好"，非农新增13万人，两倍于市场预期，时薪增速韧性，失业率下至4.3%，劳动参与率回升。"满分"的 就业报告是否存在水分、未来就业市场趋势如何？ 一、概览：美国1月非农就业超预期，失业率回落至4.3% 美国1月非农新增13万人，失业率回落至4.3%，就业数据"全面向好"。 机构调查方面，1月美国非农新增就业13万人，市场预期6.5万 人。1月私人部门时薪环比0.4%，市场预期0.3%；家庭调查方面，1月美国失业率回落至4.3%，市场预期4.4%，劳动参与率提升至 62.5%。 年度基准修正落地，2025年月均新增就业仅1.5万人。 "年度基准修正"将2025年3月季调后非农就业下修89.8万人，非季调口径下修 86.2万人（市场预期82.5万人）。经过数据修订后，2025年非农就业新增（季调）从58.4万人下修至18.1万人。 就业数据公布后，美债利率、美元指数、美股均上涨。 北京时间2月11日9:30PM美国1月就业数据公布后，2Y美债利率、10Y美债利 率、美元指数均出现上行，其中10Y美债利率一度突破4.2%；美股上涨，显示市场对于"裁员"担忧消退，金价回落，对应降息预期下 修 ...

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000 jobs, marking the highest monthly increase since July 2025[4] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the anticipated 4.4%, indicating a stronger labor market than expected[9] Labor Market Dynamics - Job growth was primarily driven by the education and healthcare sectors (+137,000) and construction (+33,000), while other sectors showed limited or negative growth[5] - The labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.5%, with the prime working age group (25-54 years) participation rising to 84.1%[11] Job Vacancies and Demand - Job vacancies decreased by 386,000 in December, leading to a vacancy rate of 3.9%, suggesting a continued decline in labor demand[11] - The Challenger Job Cut Index rose to 108,400 in January, indicating an increase in layoffs, although still within the range observed since April 2025[22] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the employment data release, expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026 significantly diminished, with the probability of a June rate cut dropping from 75.2% to 59.6%[25] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.47 basis points to 4.18% after the data release, reflecting market reactions to the stronger-than-expected employment figures[25] Inflation Outlook - The upcoming January CPI inflation data is critical, with market expectations suggesting potential seasonal factors may lead to higher-than-expected inflation[26] - If inflation does not cool down, the outlook for interest rate cuts in 2026 may face further challenges, although the overall expectation for two rate cuts in the second half remains unchanged[26]

Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations of 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% from 4.4% [1][5] - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% [1][5] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, slightly above the expected 62.4% [1][5] Employment Data Analysis - The January employment data shows signs of improvement, particularly in the education and health sectors, which contributed significantly to job growth due to adjustments in the NBD model [2][23] - The construction sector also saw job gains, with 33,000 new jobs added, primarily driven by non-residential contractors rather than residential construction [2][23] - The unemployment rate's decline and the increase in labor participation, especially among the 25-54 age group, indicate a rising willingness to work among U.S. residents [2] Future Outlook - Despite the positive January employment figures, there are concerns about potential "water" in the data, suggesting that the employment market remains in a "weak balance" [3] - Short-term risks include tariff impacts and immigration policies that could negatively affect employment [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance in the first half of the year, with attention on upcoming CPI data to gauge inflationary pressures [3] Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, and stock markets all experienced upward movements, indicating reduced concerns over layoffs [12][18] - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 4.2%, reflecting market optimism [12] - Gold prices fell in response to the employment data, aligning with lowered expectations for interest rate cuts [12][21] Data Revisions - The annual benchmark revision indicates that the average monthly job addition for 2025 is now projected at only 15,000, marking the weakest performance since 2003, excluding economic crisis years [9] - The revisions included a downward adjustment of 898,000 jobs for seasonally adjusted non-farm employment for March 2025 [9] Sector Contributions - The education and health services sector added 137,000 jobs, while the construction sector contributed 33,000 jobs, indicating sector-specific growth drivers [23] - Manufacturing managed to add 5,000 jobs in January, breaking a streak of negative growth over the previous 13 months [23]

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 2 月 13 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（2 月第 6 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2026-02-13 00:21:07 1 / 3 投资策略|点评报告 广发投资策略研究小组 | 刘 | 晨 | 明 ：首席分析师，南开大学世界经济硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郑 | | 恺 ：首席分析师，华东师范大学金融学硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | 许 | 向 | 真 ：（上海）资深分析师，厦门大学硕士，8 年策略研究经验。 | | 倪 | | 赓 ：（上海）资深分析师，中山大学硕士，7 年策略研究经验。 | | 陈 | 振 | 威 ：（上海）资深分析师，香港中文大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 杨 | 泽 | 蓁 ：（上海）资深分析师，上海财经大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 杨 | 清 | 源 ：（上海）高级分析师，西南财经大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 毕 ...

Overview - In January 2026, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding market expectations of 65,000, indicating a strong employment report[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, down from 4.4% as anticipated, while the labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%[1][6] - The average hourly wage in the private sector increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%[1][10] Employment Data Adjustments - The annual benchmark revision revealed that the average monthly job growth for 2025 was adjusted down to only 15,000, with a significant downward revision of 898,000 jobs for March 2025[1][11] - The non-seasonally adjusted figures for 2025 were revised down by 862,000 jobs, indicating a weaker employment landscape than previously reported[1][11] Sector Performance - The education and health services sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 137,000 jobs, while the construction sector added 33,000 jobs, driven by non-residential contractors[2][21] - Manufacturing saw a slight recovery with an addition of 5,000 jobs, breaking a streak of negative growth over the past 13 months[2][21] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, and stock markets all experienced upward movements, reflecting reduced concerns over layoffs[2][14] - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 4.2%, indicating market optimism regarding economic stability[2][14] Future Outlook - Despite the strong January employment figures, analysts caution that the data may contain "water," suggesting underlying weaknesses in the labor market[4] - The potential for a "low growth balance" in the U.S. job market is anticipated for 2026, with risks from tariffs and immigration policies posing challenges[4]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 65,000 and a revised previous value of 48,000[5] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected and previous rate of 4.4%[5] Sector Performance - Job growth was primarily driven by improvements in education and healthcare sectors, which added 84,000 jobs[7] - The goods-producing sector saw an increase of 36,000 jobs, with construction and manufacturing improving, while mining jobs decreased[7] Wage Growth and Inflation - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%[7] - Core service inflation pressures are rising, particularly in the education and healthcare sectors, correlating with significant job growth in these areas[7] Interest Rate Outlook - Despite the strong employment data, the expectation for interest rate cuts remains unchanged, with a baseline expectation of no cuts during Powell's remaining term[7] - Following the appointment of Waller in May, there is a potential for at least 50 basis points of rate cuts within the year, influenced by tariff impacts on inflation[7] Risks - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could hinder the possibility of rate cuts[6]

2月11日，美国1月非农就业报告虽延迟发布，却引发全球市场剧烈震荡，黄金价格短线大幅跳水。数据显示，当月美国非农就 业人口新增13万人，显著超出市场预期的7万人，创下2025年4月以来的最大单月增幅；失业率降至4.3%，较前值下降0.1个百分 点，低于市场预期的4.4%。这份报告不仅打消了市场对美国就业疲软的担忧，更直接推动美联储降息预期大幅后移。 值得注意的是，报告对历史数据进行了惯性下修：2025年就业人数累计下修89.8万人，调整后当年月均新增就业仅1.5万人，远 低于初始公布的4.9万人。这既反映出美国就业市场仍处于低增长、高韧性的平衡状态，也让投资者在解读美国就业数据时更为 谨慎。 降息预期明显降温 超预期的就业数据直接冲击了市场对美联储政策宽松的定价。数据发布前，市场普遍预期首次降息或于6月落地，而当前首次降 息时间已推迟至7月，且对全年降息幅度的预期同步下调。市场预计2026年美联储将降息50个基点，较此前预期减少10个基点。 据CME美联储观察工具显示，3月降息25个基点的概率从19.6%骤降至6%，维持利率不变的概率飙升至94%；4月降息概率也从 36%降至不足19%。受此影响，美元指数短线 ...

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000 jobs[9] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4%, with a labor force participation rate increase to 62.5%[14] - Average weekly hours worked rose to 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, surpassing the expected 0.3%[17] Annual Revision - The non-seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure for March 2025 was revised down by 862,000 jobs, close to the previous estimate of 911,000[22] - The total annual job additions for 2025 were revised down from 584,000 to 181,000, resulting in an average monthly addition of approximately 15,000 jobs[23] Federal Reserve Outlook - The stronger-than-expected employment data has reduced market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a less than 6% probability of a rate cut in March[28] - The Federal Reserve may have room to pause rate cuts before June, with potential cuts expected in June and September[28] Risks - Inflation exceeding expectations could limit the space for rate cuts, and political pressures may threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[29]