Inflation Data - In June, the US CPI increased to 2.7% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from May, while the core CPI rose to 2.9%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase, the first rise in four months[3] - Energy prices contributed significantly, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9% in June, up 1.9 percentage points from May, driving the overall CPI rebound[3] Core CPI Drivers - The core CPI's increase was influenced by three main factors: the penetration effect of rising oil prices, initial signs of tariff impacts, and strengthened wage transmission[4] - Durable goods saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in June, up 0.2 percentage points from May, correlating with the rise in energy prices[4] Economic Outlook - The fiscal stimulus, rising tariff rates, and heated labor market conditions suggest a phase of core CPI recovery in the US, making the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year very low[5] - The anticipated rise in oil prices is viewed as temporary, while the impacts of tariffs and wages are expected to be more sustainable, potentially prolonging inflationary pressures[5] Risks - There are risks associated with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts not meeting expectations and a significant rebound in the dollar index, which could constrain monetary easing in China[6]