Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by improved tariff expectations and slightly better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, leading to reduced market risk aversion. However, analysts believe that gold remains a valuable asset class to watch in the second half of 2025 due to ongoing economic risks and central bank gold purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have declined due to U.S. non-farm employment data exceeding expectations, which has lowered market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing the expected 126,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2]. - Consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. have decreased, with one-year inflation expectations dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May, indicating improved consumer confidence [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking a continuous increase for seven months [5]. - Since April 2025, the pace of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China has slowed, which may weaken short-term support for gold prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that despite the slowdown in gold purchases, the ongoing high debt burden in the U.S. could lead to continued central bank gold accumulation globally [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices could range between $2,980 to $3,600 per ounce in the second half of 2025, with Shanghai gold prices expected to range from 720 to 860 yuan per gram [8]. - The relationship between U.S. CPI and gold prices indicates that when CPI exceeds 2.5%, the probability of gold price increases is significantly higher than decreases [8]. - The ongoing economic uncertainties and potential for further central bank gold purchases suggest that gold's long-term investment value remains intact [7][8].