当地时间1月9日，美股三大股指集体上涨，道指、标普500指数均创收盘新高。板块及个股方面，美股芯片股大涨，其中英特尔单日涨近11%，盘中股价 创阶段新高；美股大型科技股多数上涨，热门中概股多数走软。 据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普9日下午在白宫与大型石油企业高管举行会议。特朗普说会议将讨论"委内瑞拉的安全和人民"，称会议将有助于降低美国 油价，并阻止毒品和罪犯进入美国，其还表示，他领导的美国政府将决定哪些油企获准在委内瑞拉投资。 英特尔单日大涨近11% 道指、标普500指数创收盘新高 当地时间1月9日，美股三大股指集体上涨，道指、标普500指数齐创收盘新高。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指、纳指、标普500指数分别上涨0.48%、 0.81%、0.65%。从全周表现看，美股三大股指全周均涨逾1%。 美股芯片股迎普涨行情，英特尔股价大涨近11%，盘中一度创2024年3月以来新高，截至收盘报45.55美元/股，总市值合计2173亿美元；拉姆研究涨逾 8%，应用材料、阿斯麦均涨逾6%，三只股票盘中均创历史新高。 | 英特尔(INTEL) ( 日 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | INTC.O | ...

黄金到底涨到什么时候是个头？跟历史上这种级别的行情有什么区别？现在进场还来的及吗？ 今天我从投资的视角来聊一下这个话题，声明一下，我这里没有标准答案，但你看完了肯定会有一个自 己的答案。 黄金的价格纯粹是由供需决定的存量博弈。 先来看供给，黄金被称为贵金属之王，就是在于它的稀缺性，现在全球开采出来的黄金总量大概21万 吨，把这些黄金全部融化之后，铺开在一个标准的足球场上，它大概只能垒到1.5米，还没有一个成年 人高，是不是感觉也没有想像中的那么多？ 这在一定程度上是因为黄金开采量都十分稳定，这十几年来黄金每年开采量在3000吨左右，金矿主不会 因为金价上涨就多开采一点，下跌就少挖一些，这是黄金非常重要的一个特征，它在供给侧几乎没有波 动！ 在需求端呢，最大的消费来自女性买家和婚嫁需求的首饰，每年用来打造首饰的黄金占到黄金供给的 60%，比如去年金饰消费量是1877吨。其中，印度和中国一数二的人口规模，让这两个国家每年要消化 了掉全球60%的黄金饰品需求。 按照这种说法，既然个人消费才是黄金的主流，那么决定金价的走势是不是中印两国买买买的热情呢？ 也并不是这个样子，金饰消费和避险投资这种两种需求，往往是相反的， ...

据交易所数据显示，截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为1001.82元/克，上涨0.21%。 美国疲软就业数据强化了2026年至少两次降息的市场预期，低利率环境利好无息资产黄金。1月9日即将 公布的12月非农就业报告成为关键节点，市场预期新增就业岗位降至6万个。若数据符合或弱于预期， 将巩固降息预期支撑金价；若超预期强劲，则可能引发短期回调。 地缘冲突持续叠加央行购金托底金价 全球地缘不确定性升温，美国在委内瑞拉的军事行动、特朗普威胁对哥伦比亚动武，推动避险资金流入 黄金。各国央行持续购金支撑金价，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金，2025年12月末储备环比增3万盎 司至7415万盎司，通过增持优化外储结构成为长期趋势。 国际黄金价格报4479.7美元/盎司，上涨0.43%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 美联储降息预期与非农数据即将揭晓 机构长期看涨叠加短期技术面承压 机构普遍长期看涨金价，汇丰预计上半年金价触及5000美元/盎司，摩根士丹利认为四季度将升至4800 美元/盎司。但短期彭博商品指数权重调整引发基金被动抛售，给金价带来下行压力，高盛提示库存偏 紧或先引发剧烈波动 ...

摘要今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价994.30元/克，较前一交易日下跌6.67美元，跌幅 0.69%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1000.71元/克，最高价1003.35元/克，最低价993.37元/克。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价994.30元/克，较前一交易日下跌6.67美元，跌幅 0.69%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1000.71元/克，最高价1003.35元/克，最低价993.37元/克。 【要闻速递】 自2025年以来，美元指数持续走弱，主要原因是美债规模不断扩大。特朗普未能兑现竞选承诺，《大而 美法案》反而将联邦债务上限提高至41万亿美元。截至2025年9月，美债规模突破37万亿美元，利息支 出超过1万亿，到期债务及借新还旧压力巨大。对美债信用的担忧，使各国央行自2022年起加大黄金储 备，成为推动金价上涨的重要因素。 世界黄金协会数据显示，1964年以来，全球黄金存量因开采技术进步增加约1.5倍。若各国央行按此比 例增持，应持有全球黄金存量的50%，但实际仅持有约17.5%(21万吨中的比例)。中国央行黄金储备到 2025年末约为0.74亿盎司，占全球央行总储备 ...

贵金属日报 | 2026-01-08 央行黄金储备持续增长 美国"小非农"数据升温 市场分析 国内方面，我国外汇储备创十年新高，黄金储备14个月连增。截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美 元，环比上升115亿美元，再创2015年12月以来新高；黄金储备规模为7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第 14个月增加。海外方面，美国去年12月"小非农"温和复苏。ADP数据显示，美国企业12月私营部门就业人数增加 4.1万，扭转了前月的下滑趋势，但低于市场预期。另外，美国2025年11月JOLTS职位空缺降至714.6万个，远低于 市场预期的760万个，创2024年9月以来最低水平。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-07，沪金主力合约开于1006.00元/克，收于998.90元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.61%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于999.40元/克，收于1002.20元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.33%。 2026-01-07，沪银主力合约开于19460.00元/千克，收于19290.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.83% ...

中经记者 秦玉芳 广州报道 元旦节后，黄金价格大幅度波动上行。截至2026年1月7日，伦敦现货黄金开盘4494.59美元/盎司，盘中 最高再次突破4500美元/盎司关口，一个月内涨幅超过9%。 苏商银行特约研究员张思远进一步强调，从市场运行逻辑看，黄金作为零息资产，其价格与实际利率呈 现显著负相关关系。当前美国劳动力市场疲软特征持续显现，消费者信心指数回落至2022年6月以来低 位，市场对美联储连续降息的预期显著升温，这直接降低了黄金的持有机会成本，成为推动金价上行的 核心动力。 中信证券在最新研报中也强调，在基本面因素没有出现明显变化时，基本可以断定黄金价格的大幅变动 是投机性交易驱动的。在现货市场，2025年12月上海黄金交易所的持仓量和交易量均未出现大幅抬升。 在ETF市场，截至12月19日一周，全球ETF净增持也仅有小幅增长，明显低于2025年8月底至10月中的 增持幅度，显示出机构投资者在本轮行情中参与度不高，散户也并不是上行的主要推手。因此，投机性 资金的短期买入才是黄金快速上涨的重要原因。 不过，中国房地产数据研究院院长陈晟指出，金价连续突破关键点位的核心原因，与黄金作为避险贵金 属的属性紧密相 ...

相比之下，截至10月，海外官方持有的美国长短期国债总值接近3.88万亿美元。 据报道分析指出，若各国央行黄金储备规模年底保持不变，按年底金价计算其价值已达3.93万亿美元， 这意味着黄金储备价值已超越海外官方持有的美债规模。 截至北京时间周三(1月7日)16:49，现货黄金报4469.68美元/盎司，跌幅0.54%。 摘要黄金有望超越美国国债，成为美国以外全球官方储备中的最大资产类别。这一转变主要得益于过去 一年金价的大幅上涨以及各国央行的持续积极购金。 黄金有望超越美国国债，成为美国以外全球官方储备中的最大资产类别。这一转变主要得益于过去一年 金价的大幅上涨以及各国央行的持续积极购金。 世界黄金协会本月数据显示，截至11月底(部分国家数据截至10月底)，美国以外的全球官方黄金储备总 量已超过9亿金衡盎司，按11月30日金价计算，价值约3.82万亿美元。 ...

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫周一表示，该国国家石油基金通过增持黄金已实现超过 100亿美元 的收益。去 年，阿塞拜疆做出战略决策，在地缘政治局势变化的背景下大幅增加黄金储备，基于对金价大幅上涨的 预期。阿利耶夫指出，地缘政治事件的发展态势清晰可见，他坚信黄金价格会持续攀升，而事实证明金 价确实显著上涨。 今日周二（1月6日）亚盘时段，COMEX黄金期货最新报价4470.60美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨10.50 美元，涨幅0.24%，成功站稳4500美元/盎司关口。当日开盘价4459.80美元/盎司，最高价4472.00美元/盎 司，最低价4437.90美元/盎司。 另一方面，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至12月30日当周，COMEX黄金投机者将净多 头头寸减少 10,668手，至 126,873手，显示部分投机资金在高位选择获利了结。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 2月黄金期货（COMEX GC.1）在2026年1月上旬延续强势震荡格局，价格围绕4450–4470美元/盎司运 行，1月5日收报4459.70美元，日内涨幅3%。技术面显示，多头下一关键目标 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, buy on dips; treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish [1][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum to strengthen observation; nickel to observe or sell short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound oscillations [1][11][13][15] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see; polyolefins to oscillate weakly [1][19][21][24] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, apples are expected to be slightly bullish; red dates to rebound from the bottom [1][27][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, short - term contracts to sell short on rallies, long - term contracts to be cautiously bullish; for eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; for corn, short - term to be cautious about chasing highs, grain holders to hedge on rallies; for soybean meal, short - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, long - term contracts to be treated weakly; for oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1][29][31][32] Core Views - The A - share market has a positive start in 2026, with high trading volume and broad - based gains. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027. The bond market is affected by low yields and high supply, and treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [5] - In the black building materials market, the coking coal market is in a game between bearish and bullish factors, and rebar is affected by supply and demand and policies [8] - The non - ferrous metals market is complex. Copper has long - term supply support but short - term over - priced risks; aluminum is affected by fundamentals and policies; nickel is expected to remain in surplus; tin is affected by supply and demand; precious metals are affected by the US economic situation [11][13][15] - The energy chemicals market is generally weak. PVC, caustic soda, and other products are affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [19][21] - In the cotton textile and agricultural livestock markets, products such as cotton, apples, and red dates are affected by supply, demand, and policies; live pigs, eggs, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality [27][29][31] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: On the first trading day, A - shares opened and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027, expecting annual growth of 15% - 20%. The market is expected to develop further, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market has quickly digested the positive news about fund fees and bank EVE indicators. Due to low bond yields and high supply, treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between bearish factors (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and bullish factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price was weak on Monday. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: Supply - side factors such as production line cold repairs are positive, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and there are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a high level, but there are short - term over - priced risks. The supply is expected to be sufficient in January, and the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Long positions should be held cautiously [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is in a weak situation, and the aluminum price is driven by expectations and funds. The upward pressure is large in January, and observation is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to decrease, but the overall nickel market is in surplus. The price may rebound in the short term, and investors can observe or sell short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and range trading is recommended [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic situation, the prices are expected to move sideways. Long positions in silver can be held, and range trading is recommended for gold [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [19] - **Caustic Soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the alumina market. Temporary observation is recommended [21] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the price is expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [21] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [22] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [23] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and range trading is recommended [24] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the LP spread is expected to widen [25] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by downstream industries. Temporary observation is recommended [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand situation and policies, the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the price is oscillating due to supply - demand games. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is under pressure. Short - term contracts can be sold short on rallies, and long - term contracts can be cautiously bullish [29] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is at a low level. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term price increase is limited, and long - term demand is gradually released but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Short - term caution is needed when chasing highs, and long - term there is strong support at the bottom [34] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports and South American weather. Range trading is recommended, with short - term contracts treated strongly on dips and long - term contracts treated weakly [35][36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated. In the long term, there are potential positive factors [41][42]

从中期来看，倘若后续美国进一步加大对委内瑞拉的军事介入力度，而委内瑞拉方面采取更为强硬的应 对举措，相关局势可能出现阶段性升级，则或将支撑黄金和原油价格。而长期来看，若美国或美元衰 落，或将支撑黄金价格。 中信建投证券研究分析也指出，地缘冲突或再增贵金属上涨筹码。在海外监管上调保证金抑制多头资金 抱团投资的背景下，2025年最后一周，贵金属特别是白银市场经历了一场过山车行情。美国3日凌晨对 委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭首都加拉加斯并抓走委总统马杜罗及夫人。委内瑞拉黄金资源潜力 预估或有3500吨，2024年黄金生产量为31吨，在全球各国黄金生产量中处于中游水平。美国挑起新的战 争，令国际局势更为紧张，避险配置及央行购金行为延续，强化贵金属牛市格局。 王文虎建议，关注伦敦金价4150-4250美元/盎司附近支撑位及4450-4550美元/盎司附近压力位。 证券时报此前报道称，2026年美联储的降息预期以及持续发酵的地缘政治紧张局势，成为推动本轮黄金 价格走高的两大核心因素。 宏源期货研究所分析师王文虎此前认为，从短期来看，美国对委内瑞拉的军事攻击暂时停止，对黄金价 格影响或将有限，短期更需关注1月8日至14 ...