金价飙升之际，全球央行的购金步伐看似放缓，却隐藏着更为复杂的战略布局。 与此同时，中国央行却连续7个月增持黄金，5月末黄金储备增至7383万盎司。 一边是整体购金速度的放缓，一边是主要经济体的持续增持，全球央行对黄金的态度似乎呈现两种不同的趋势。 2025年以来，全球央行购金热情明显较前两年有所降温。 世界黄金协会数据显示，一季度全球央行黄金净购买量为-243.67吨，首次出现净售金的情况。 二季度虽然恢复了净购金，但166吨的购金量比去年同期下降21%，创下自2022年二季度以来的最低季度购金水平。 回顾2024年，全球央行购金量连续第三年超过1000吨，而2025年上半年全球央行购金总量为415吨，相比2024年上半年的525吨减少了21%。 这一数据清晰地表明了央行购金节奏的放缓。 荷兰国际集团(ING)对世界黄金协会数据的分析显示，今年前三个月各国央行购买黄金的速度较上一季度下降了33%。 全球央行的购金热情似乎正逐渐降温。 根据世界黄金协会2025年二季度报告，全球央行购金量达166吨，较去年同期下降21%，这已是连续第二个季度放缓。 金价飙升是抑制央行购金热情的重要因素之一。 尽管整体趋势放缓，但 ...

今日周二（11月25日）亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4140美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4127.63美元/盎司，跌幅0.13%，最高上探至4143.66美元/盎司，最低触及4122.12美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金市场呈现出较为明显的波动态势。自欧盘时段出现弱多信号后，黄金价格便开启了一轮上涨行 情。 【要闻速递】 黄金产量增长态势稳定，价格主要受需求端影响。据世界黄金协会数据，2024年地上黄金总量达21.6万 吨。结合美国地质调查局与Our World in Data的产量数据，1960-2024年黄金总量年复合增长率为1.5%， 近年年产量约3000吨，基本保持稳定。 从需求结构来看，央行购金、投资、珠宝制造是主要需求方，其中央行购金在近几年成为关键驱动力。 2024年，三者分别占黄金总需求的24%、26%、44%，其余为科技需求。2021-2024年，央行购金量从 450吨增至1089吨，占比从11%升至24%；投资需求从1107吨微涨至1181吨，占比从25%略升至26%；珠 宝制造需求则从2252吨降至2027吨，占比从56%下滑 ...

五矿期货表示，美联储宽松货币政策预期在关键票委讲话后显著回升，这令贵金属价格短期得到较为强 力的支撑。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示美联储近期仍存在降息空间，他认为劳动力市场已正在降温，同 时通胀的进展有所停滞。威廉姆斯讲话后，市场对于联储12月议息会议降息25个基点的概率定价大幅上 升至70%。海外降息周期仍将持续，但进一步的驱动将在12月集中释放。基于此，当前贵金属策略上建 议保留底仓，暂时观望为主。 光大期货表示，美政府"停摆"结束后，市场乐观情绪并未延续，且美联储内部分歧仍较大，美股呈现出 疲软态势，加大市场对流动性问题的担忧，黄金上冲乏力，陷入震荡态势。总体来看，美股表现疲软并 未带动黄金避险情绪回归，说明市场对金价后市分歧较大，缺乏可持续性的利多因素催化，短期大幅做 多意愿不足，黄金后市或维持高位震荡甚至再度出现探底行情。 金瑞期货表示，美联储三号人物纽约联储主席发表讲话暗示支持12月降息，市场对降息预期迅速反弹， 带来一定利好，黄金价格未进一步下跌，但白银仍偏弱。中长期来说，宏观上包括主权国家赤字问题、 地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，白银长期供需矛盾导致的缺货也未改变，金银 价格的 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have retreated to around $4000 from a recent peak of $4380, indicating a stable market despite the decline [1][2] - Strong investment demand and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market [1][2] - The U.S. labor market, inflation, and consumer spending risks are balanced, suggesting a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1][2] - Factors such as economic slowdown, high stock market valuations, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to sustain investment demand and central bank gold purchases [1][2] - Silver continues to outperform gold, with the gold-silver price ratio dropping to 80 [1][2] - Retail investment growth in October has tightened the supply in the spot market, contributing to silver's strength [1][2]

作者： 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11. 21」 贵金属市场周报 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：受美联储降息预期反复牵制，贵金属市场本周区间震荡运行。因美政府停摆而延后的9月非农报 告未能提供明确指引，市场不确定性持续高企。就业新增人数大幅超出市场预期，但前期数据下修令数值 略有失色。失业率意外抬升，市场此前预期维持不变，尽管劳动参与率微升表明供应面改善部分推高了失 业率，但该数据仍创下四年以来的最高水平，预示美联储在实现"充分就业"政策目标方面仍面临挑战。 美联储官员在降息立场上呈现严重分歧，多数官员支持年内维持利率不变，或因前期持续性的数据缺失以 及通胀的潜在抬升，亦有部分官员支持较为宽松的利率基调，12月降息概率较前期大幅下滑,虽表观数据显 示就业需求韧性犹存，但市场仍将前值下修以及失业率上升视作降温信号。利率期货显示，12月降息概率 ...

第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 对金价影响的主要压力： 后续重点关注： 美联储的政策信号：这是黄金市场的核心驱动力。务必关注12月FOMC会议前各位美联储官员的讲话，任何关于利率路径的暗示都可能引起市场波动。 美国9月非农数据强劲 (新增11.9万，远超预期5万) ，美联储12月降息预期大幅降温 (概率从上周的45%降至约30%-40%) ，美元走强，利空黄金 潜在支撑：全球科技股暴跌引发避险情绪 ，央行购金的长期趋势仍在 ，金价大跌可能刺激实物黄金需求，利多黄金 关键点位与看法 阻力位：关注 4110美元 和 4130-4140美元 区域。如果金价反弹至这些位置附近并出现上涨乏力迹象，可以考虑轻仓试空。 支撑位：重点关注4020美元。若金价在此企稳并出现看涨K线形态，可考虑轻仓博取反弹。 突破策略：如果金价有效跌破4020美元的支撑，短期下跌空间可能会打开，届时可考虑反弹时轻仓跟进空单。反之，若金价强势突破4140美元，则可能引发 进一步的上行，但当前基本面支持这种走势的概率相对较小。 短期来看，黄金预计会继续在4000美元以上的区间内震荡盘整。一方面，4000美 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillating [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [6] - Edible oils: Range-bound [6] - Meal: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Widely oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex trend with different commodities having various performances, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations. For example, the iron and steel industry is affected by supply and demand and production reduction policies; the financial market is influenced by macroeconomic data and policies; the agricultural and forestry products market is affected by weather, trade policies, and consumption demand [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas shipments increased by 4474000 tons to 35164000 tons, while domestic port arrivals continued to decline. Daily average hot metal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 236280 tons. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with new construction dropping to the 2005 level. The supply-demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target and the heating season supply guarantee meeting, the upward driving force weakened. Although the fourth round of price hikes has been implemented, the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and there are obvious differences in sentiment for the fifth round of price hikes. The supply-demand relationship has become looser again, and it is in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price is mainly oscillating. The key lies in steel demand, and the steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - **Glass**: The spot quotation is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The enterprise inventory has been increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and macro - and production reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors showed capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation, and the medium - term trend is still upward, suggesting long - holding of stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding, suggesting light - position long - holding of treasury bonds [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors, while the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The port daily average shipment decreased, and the import volume decreased year - on - year. The inventory pressure is large, and the spot price is weak. It is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price is weakly adjusted, the cost support is weakened, and the demand is poor. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the market expectation is cautious. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Edible oils**: The overall supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue range - bound operation [6]. - **Meal**: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and domestic supply is abundant while demand is cautious. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Live pigs**: The trading weight fluctuates, the settlement price may face downward pressure, and the slaughter enterprise start - up rate is expected to continue to increase, with the average price expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: Different regions have different production situations due to weather. The demand side shows some improvement, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to be widely oscillating [10]. - **PX**: Supply is strong, and downstream polyester load has rebounded, with the price mainly oscillating [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by raw materials, the supply - demand relationship has improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost end [10]. - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be widely adjusted in the short term [10]. - **PR**: Lack of support from crude oil and raw materials, with weak downstream demand, the market may continue to be sluggish [10]. - **PF**: The demand side is average, and the supply is relatively loose, with the market expected to be weakly sorted [10].

6年狂飙219%：黄金为何"停不下来"？ 2025年的黄金市场，用"疯狂"二字形容毫不为过：伦敦现货金价年内飙涨超50%，10月冲上4380美元/盎司的历史峰值，截至11月19日仍稳居4100美元上 方，创下1979年以来最强年度表现。更令人惊叹的是，自2019年启动第三轮上涨周期以来，黄金已连续6年走强，累计涨幅达219%，成为全球资产中"最 亮的星"。然而，站在历史高位，一个关键问题萦绕在投资者心头：黄金的上涨势头还能持续吗？地缘政治、央行购金、实际利率三大变量，将如何左右 未来走势？ 3. 实际利率：金价的"隐形推手" 黄金与实际利率呈负相关关系：实际利率越低，持有黄金的机会成本越低，金价越易上涨；反之则承压。2024年，美联储开启降息周期，实际利率下 行，成为金价上涨的重要推手。然而，未来利率路径存在不确定性：若美联储因通胀反弹而暂停降息，甚至重启加息，实际利率可能上行，对金价构成 压制。 未来展望：黄金还能"飞"多高？ 黄金的这轮上涨，堪称"教科书级"的慢牛行情。2019年，全球贸易摩擦升级、美联储开启降息周期，黄金从1200美元/盎司起步，开启第一波攻势；2020 年疫情冲击下，全球经济停摆，黄金 ...

| < W | COMEX黄金 | | | a | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | 4040.2 | 昨结 4074.5 | | 开盘 | 4045.6 | | -34.3 -0.84% | 总手 9.30万 | | 现于 | 7 | | 最高价 4055.4 | 持 仓 24.74万 | | 外盘 | 4.55万 | | 最低价 3997.4 | 增 仓 3707 | | 内 盘 | 4.74万 | | 分时 | 5日 日K 周K 月K | | 自治 | (0) | | 晉加 | | | 盘口 | | | 4151.6 | | 1.89％ 卖1 4040.3 | | 2 | | | | | 6607 Lis | 3 | | | | | 04:53 4040.7 | 1 | | 4074.5 | | | 04:53 4040.6 | 1 | | | | 0 00% 04:53 4040.7 | | T | | | | | 04:53 4040.3 | 1 | | | | | 04:53 4040.2 | 1 | | | | | 04:5 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 11月19日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 937.00 | 1.09% | 239515 | 82838 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，11月19日上海黄金现货价格报价931.40元/克，相较于期货主力价格（937.00元/克）贴水5.06 元/克。 外交部亚洲司司长刘劲松与日本外务省亚大局局长金井正彰进行磋商，刘劲松对结果不满且气氛严肃。 国务院总理李强在上合会议上强调经贸壁垒冲击国际秩序，呼吁减少壁垒拥抱自由贸易。 沙特王储访美确认对美国投资增至1万亿美元，特朗普称已选美联储主席人选。 美国10月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数为23.2万，"小非农"ADP就业数据显示四周内私营部门就业人 数每周减少2500人。 【机构观点】 金瑞期货：上一个交易日贵金属价格普遍下跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.17%报4067.40美元/盎司， COMEX白银期货跌0.34%报50.54美元/盎司。目前市场出现普遍的降杠杆抛售，主因此前 ...