Group 1 - The unprecedented federal government shutdown has led to the potential permanent loss of certain economic data that was scheduled for collection in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1] - Key statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau, were unable to collect data during the shutdown, severely impacting reports that rely on manual data collection [1] - There is an increasing risk that the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not release the October Consumer Price Index, a crucial inflation indicator, raising concerns among economists regarding the household survey used to calculate unemployment rates [1] Group 2 - The ongoing 42-day government shutdown is expected to impact the economy, but it is predicted that economic growth will return to normal by early 2026, with a recovery in growth rates to 3%-4% anticipated by the first quarter of next year [2] - The Senate has passed a bill to restart the government, with the House expected to approve it soon, which will then be sent to Trump for signing [2]

Core Insights - The unprecedented government shutdown may result in the loss of economic data that was supposed to be collected in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1] - Some surveys have reportedly not been completed, leading to uncertainty about economic conditions during that month [1] - A period of obscured economic visibility is anticipated until data agencies resume operations [1]