民生福利面临困境 民生福利领域也面临不少问题。4200万人依赖补充营养援助计划，本以为停摆结束 后能立即拿到福利，但由于各州核算和未支付项的流程复杂，不少人仍需等待。例如，得克萨斯州有 380万受益人，补发福利的发放延迟了两周多，期间许多低收入家庭的食物已经接近耗尽。 可见，停摆 结束只是迈出了第一步，民生领域的后遗症仍需要时间去逐步解决。 当地停摆风险隐现 11月12日晚，美国众议院以222票对209票通过了参议院的拨款法案，特朗普总统在 椭圆形办公室签署了这份法案。这标志着美国历史上持续时间最长的联邦政府停摆，终于画上了句号。 自10月1日以来的这次停摆，持续了整整六周，打破了此前的纪录，这段时间的消耗可谓毫无意义的内 耗，甚至可以说没有给国家带来任何积极的成果。 民生复苏：欠薪补发了，但麻烦依然存在 一旦停摆结束的消息传出，最开心的无疑是联邦政府的雇员 们。67万名被迫休假的员工可以返回工作岗位，73万名未休假的工作人员也能拿到应得的补发工资。按 照规定，大家必须在5天内重新上班，其中70%的欠薪将在24至48小时内到账，其余部分将在一周内结 清。 虽然补发工资的速度看起来很快，但回想起这六周内，许多人 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government has ended its longest shutdown, leading to a backlog of economic data that will be released starting next week, which is crucial for assessing the economic situation and informing the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision [1][2] - Key economic reports, including the September non-farm payrolls and third-quarter GDP, will be published, but the October CPI may be permanently missing due to data collection challenges [1][4] Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Labor will release the September non-farm employment report on November 20, followed by the September real wage data on November 21 [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce will publish the revised third-quarter GDP on November 26, along with personal income, spending, and PCE price index data for October [2][3] Impact on Federal Reserve Decision-Making - The unprecedented data void caused by the 43-day government shutdown has created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve regarding economic conditions [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has indicated that the absence of data may affect the committee's decisions, emphasizing a cautious approach in light of the data gaps [5] Challenges in Data Recovery - While the September employment data is expected to be released, the October data faces significant challenges, with warnings that some key indicators may never be published [6][7] - The collection of consumer price data is particularly problematic, as two-thirds of the price data requires in-person visits to stores, making it impossible to accurately report October CPI [7] Broader Economic Implications - The data void will impact social security payments linked to inflation and influence corporate hiring and inventory decisions ahead of the holiday season [8] - Businesses are already navigating uncertainties related to trade policies and consumer spending, and a return to normal data reporting may take several months [8]

Core Points - The White House has indicated that key government reports on inflation and the labor market for October may never be released due to the prolonged government shutdown [1][4] - The shutdown has severely hindered the ability of economists, investors, and policymakers to access critical government data, which is essential for assessing economic health [1][3] - The Labor Department has not clarified when it will begin processing the backlog of important economic reports, raising concerns about the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment reports [1][3] Summary by Sections Inflation Data - The White House previously suggested that the October inflation data might not be published, marking a potential historical first for such an omission [1] - Analysts had speculated that the Labor Department would attempt to release some October CPI data, albeit with a reduced sample size [2] Labor Market Data - The government shutdown has resulted in a lack of official economic data, forcing economists and investors to rely on private sector reports, which indicate a weakening job market and increasing layoffs [3][4] - The last available unemployment rate was 4.3% in August, with only 22,000 new jobs added, reflecting a significant slowdown in job growth [3] - The Labor Department is expected to quickly release the September employment report once the government reopens, as the data was collected before the shutdown [3] Challenges in Data Collection - The October data collection faced significant challenges due to the shutdown, with many staff unable to gather necessary statistics [4][6] - Some data, such as non-farm employment growth, may still be salvaged, but other metrics will be difficult to ascertain due to the lack of staff to conduct follow-up surveys [4][6] - The unprecedented duration of the shutdown has severely impacted the Labor Department's operations, which were already under budget constraints and political pressures [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government shutdown is perceived as a strategic maneuver rather than a mere administrative halt, with implications for economic data and policy decisions [1][5] - The shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic indicators, leading to uncertainty in market predictions and policy formulation [2][3] Economic Impact - The shutdown resulted in the immediate closure of various departments, halting critical data collection processes, including payroll systems and employment statistics, which are essential for assessing economic trends [2][3] - Non-government sources reported significant job losses, with over 100,000 layoffs in small businesses in October, contrasting sharply with official non-farm payroll figures suggesting only 1,200 jobs added [2][3] - Inflation data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has also been delayed, complicating the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions [2][3] Market Reactions - The absence of reliable data has led to increased speculation and volatility in financial markets, with investors reacting to incomplete information [3][5] - The Federal Reserve is likely to rely on alternative signals, such as market interest rates and sporadic wage data, to guide its decisions, although these indicators may introduce additional noise and uncertainty [3][5] Political Dynamics - The political stalemate in Congress has created an environment where the government may manipulate information to manage public perception and delay the release of unfavorable data [2][5] - The ongoing shutdown has resulted in a strategic delay, allowing stakeholders to reassess their positions and gather more information before making critical decisions [5]

Core Insights - The prolonged 42-day federal government shutdown has led to the potential permanent loss of certain economic data originally scheduled for collection in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1][2] - The shutdown has severely impacted federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, with significant delays in key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment data [1][2] Economic Impact - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, indicated that some statistical surveys were not completed, resulting in an unclear economic picture until statistical agencies resume operations [1] - The anticipated release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for October 3, is expected to be the easiest to rectify, as data collection was completed before the shutdown [1] - Hassett predicts that the U.S. economic growth will return to a rate of 3%-4% by the first quarter of the following year, despite acknowledging the impact of the shutdown on the economy [2] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed a bill to restart the government on November 11, with the House expected to approve it soon, followed by the signature of former President Trump [2]

Group 1 - The unprecedented federal government shutdown has led to the potential permanent loss of certain economic data that was scheduled for collection in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1] - Key statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau, were unable to collect data during the shutdown, severely impacting reports that rely on manual data collection [1] - There is an increasing risk that the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not release the October Consumer Price Index, a crucial inflation indicator, raising concerns among economists regarding the household survey used to calculate unemployment rates [1] Group 2 - The ongoing 42-day government shutdown is expected to impact the economy, but it is predicted that economic growth will return to normal by early 2026, with a recovery in growth rates to 3%-4% anticipated by the first quarter of next year [2] - The Senate has passed a bill to restart the government, with the House expected to approve it soon, which will then be sent to Trump for signing [2]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market displayed a mixed performance with the Dow Jones rising by 1.18%, the S&P 500 slightly up by 0.21%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.25% [1] - Major tech stocks showed varied results: Apple increased by over 2%, Broadcom by more than 1%, while Nvidia dropped nearly 3% following SoftBank's decision to liquidate its holdings in the stock [1] Economic Data Concerns - The prolonged government shutdown has led to significant disruptions in the collection of key economic data for October, raising concerns about the accuracy of economic assessments [2][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a crucial indicator for inflation, is notably missing, complicating market evaluations of price trends [3] Government Shutdown Impact - Economic forecasters are predicting a backlog of data releases once the government resumes operations, with the September employment report likely to be prioritized [5] - Despite the short-term economic impact of the 42-day shutdown, there is an optimistic outlook for a return to 3% to 4% growth by early 2026 [5] Market Sentiment Post-Shutdown - Historical data suggests that the end of government shutdowns typically signals positive market movements, with an average increase of 2.3% in the S&P 500 in the month following such events [7] - The anticipated resumption of government operations, combined with individual stock developments like SoftBank's actions, sets the stage for a new phase in market dynamics [7]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated support for a 25 basis point rate cut at the October FOMC meeting, but emphasized that the subsequent policy path faces high uncertainty due to the government shutdown affecting official economic data and conflicting signals between the labor market and overall economic performance [1] Group 1 - Waller stated that the uncertainty surrounding data evolution necessitates caution in adjusting policy rates to avoid costly mistakes [1] - The government shutdown complicates the policy-making environment, with potential short-term volatility but a quick economic recovery expected once reopened [1] - However, if the shutdown persists, it could weaken economic growth potential and delay recovery, particularly impacting Q4 GDP [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is creating a "blind" situation for policymakers at a critical moment for the economy, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates due to a lack of updated economic data [1] Impact on Economic Data Collection - The government shutdown is significantly affecting the collection of key economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has lost approximately one-third of the October price data due to the shutdown, which could lead to a decline in data quality over time [2][3] - Other economic indicators, such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, will also be impacted, although some data sources like retail sales may be less affected [2] Historical Context - This shutdown marks the 15th federal government shutdown since 1981, with previous shutdowns causing delays in important economic reports [4] - Historical examples include the 1995-1996 shutdown, which delayed the employment report by two weeks, and the 2013 shutdown, which also caused significant delays in various economic data releases [5] Alternative Data Sources - In the absence of government data, private sector economic data is becoming increasingly important as a supplement [6] - Private institutions like ADP Research and Indeed provide alternative employment and job vacancy data, while financial institutions like Carlyle Group and Bank of America offer labor market updates [6][7] - Although these private indicators cannot fully replace the authority of official reports, they can help fill the data void and provide decision-making references for market participants [7] Federal Reserve's Decision-Making Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in making interest rate decisions due to a slowdown in the labor market and inflationary pressures from tariffs [8] - The upcoming CPI report is critical for policy decisions, but the risk of further delays due to the shutdown complicates the situation [8] - The Fed is also considering alternative indicators from the private sector and local governments to inform their decisions, but the overall decrease in data availability is expected to increase the difficulty of their work [8]

Core Insights - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed concerns that the government shutdown will hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to interpret economic conditions due to the lack of official economic data [1] - Goolsbee specifically highlighted the potential absence of crucial inflation data, which poses a significant issue for the Fed [1] Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown, which began on Wednesday, will halt the operations of agencies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data [1] - Key reports that may be affected include the employment report scheduled for October 3 and the Consumer Price Index report set for October 15, both critical for assessing inflation [1] - Additional reports from the Census Bureau regarding retail sales and new residential construction are also at risk of delays [1] Inflation Concerns - Goolsbee reiterated worries about the recent rise in service sector inflation, suggesting that price pressures may persist in parts of the economy least affected by tariffs [1] - The next Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, where policymakers will face challenges in evaluating economic trends with incomplete data [1]