Core Insights - The prolonged 42-day federal government shutdown has led to the potential permanent loss of certain economic data originally scheduled for collection in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1][2] - The shutdown has severely impacted federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, with significant delays in key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment data [1][2] Economic Impact - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, indicated that some statistical surveys were not completed, resulting in an unclear economic picture until statistical agencies resume operations [1] - The anticipated release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for October 3, is expected to be the easiest to rectify, as data collection was completed before the shutdown [1] - Hassett predicts that the U.S. economic growth will return to a rate of 3%-4% by the first quarter of the following year, despite acknowledging the impact of the shutdown on the economy [2] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed a bill to restart the government on November 11, with the House expected to approve it soon, followed by the signature of former President Trump [2]

Group 1 - The unprecedented federal government shutdown has led to the potential permanent loss of certain economic data that was scheduled for collection in October, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economic health [1] - Key statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau, were unable to collect data during the shutdown, severely impacting reports that rely on manual data collection [1] - There is an increasing risk that the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not release the October Consumer Price Index, a crucial inflation indicator, raising concerns among economists regarding the household survey used to calculate unemployment rates [1] Group 2 - The ongoing 42-day government shutdown is expected to impact the economy, but it is predicted that economic growth will return to normal by early 2026, with a recovery in growth rates to 3%-4% anticipated by the first quarter of next year [2] - The Senate has passed a bill to restart the government, with the House expected to approve it soon, which will then be sent to Trump for signing [2]