Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices declined slightly due to the low - level rebound of the US dollar, rising risks of economic stagflation in the US, intensified geopolitical conflicts leading overseas capital to flee risk assets, and the Fed's hawkish remarks delaying the interest - rate cut, lacking upward macro - drivers. Fundamentally, major global mines' disruptions continued, non - US visible inventories dropped rapidly, the LME 0 - 3 spread hit a new high this year, and domestic social inventories were low, indicating a shortage of concentrate supply gradually spreading to refined copper supply [2]. - Overall, the low - level rebound of the US dollar pressured risk asset prices, the decline in US retail sales data and the sharp rise in crude oil prices increased the risk of US economic stagflation, and the Fed's hawkish stance dampened market risk appetite. Copper prices are hard to find upward momentum in the short term. Fundamentally, the shortage of global concentrates in the second half of the year may far exceed market expectations, with a significant drop in global visible inventories and continuous depletion of LME inventories. Although the supply side provides strong support, short - term macro factors suppress copper price increases. It is expected that LME copper will show a high - level decline, but the adjustment range may be relatively limited [3][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From June 13th to June 20th, LME copper rose by $13.00 to $9660.50 per ton, a 0.13% increase; COMEX copper rose by 8.25 cents to 483.4 cents per pound, a 1.74% increase; SHFE copper fell by 20 yuan to 77990 yuan per ton, a 0.03% decrease; international copper fell by 30 yuan to 69170 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease; the Shanghai - LME ratio dropped to 8.07; the LME spot premium rose by $201.58 to $274.99 per ton, a 274.59% increase; the Shanghai spot premium rose by 85 yuan to 120 yuan per ton [4]. - In terms of inventory, as of June 20th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 461,393 tons. LME inventory decreased by 15,275 tons to 99,200 tons, a 13.34% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 5,151 short tons to 201,197 short tons, a 2.63% increase; SHFE inventory decreased by 1,129 tons to 100,796 tons, a 1.11% decrease; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,700 tons to 60,200 tons, an 8.47% increase [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices declined slightly last week. Overseas macro factors lacked upward drivers for copper prices, while the shortage of concentrate supply gradually spread to refined copper supply. Global visible inventories were low, supporting copper prices. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio was mainly due to the weak US dollar last week [8]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, lowered the expected US economic growth rate from 1.7% to 1.4%. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Three European central banks cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The People's Bank of China maintained the one - year and five - year LPR rates [9]. - This week, the spot TC remained at - 45 dollars per ton. Kamo'a significantly reduced its production guidance by 150,000 tons this year. In China, the electrolytic copper output in May was 1.139 million tons, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. However, domestic smelting capacity faced a bottleneck, and some small and medium - sized smelters might cut production. Overseas deliverable supplies flowed to North America, and the domestic tight - balance pattern was hard to break. In terms of demand, power grid investment project tenders were launched, the weekly operating rate of copper cable enterprises remained above 80%, and orders of refined copper rod enterprises were abundant. The drag on demand came from the expected sharp decline in photovoltaic installation in May, while emerging markets such as data centers, artificial intelligence, and new - energy vehicles brought strong growth expectations [10]. Industry News - In May 2025, China exported 114,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 23.6% year - on - year decrease; from January to May, the cumulative export was 595,000 tons, a 25.2% year - on - year increase. In May, China imported 430,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 16.6% year - on - year decrease; from January to May, the cumulative import was 2.17 million tons, a 6.7% year - on - year decrease. In May, China imported 2.4 million tons of copper ore concentrates, a 6.6% year - on - year increase; from January to May, the cumulative import was 12.41 million tons, a 7.4% year - on - year increase. From January to May, China's cumulative copper product output was 9.537 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase [12]. - India's Adani copper smelter started processing ore last week. Its initial annual capacity is 500,000 tons, expected to expand to 1 million tons by 2028. It may take 18 months to reach full production, and it needs about 1.6 million tons of copper concentrates per year to operate at full capacity. This year, the gap between the smelter's required concentrates and actual supply may reach 1.2 million tons, the largest in at least a decade [13]. - Vale's Bacaba copper project in Brazil obtained a preliminary environmental permit. It is expected to produce about 50,000 tons of copper per year on average during an eight - year operation period, starting production in the first half of 2028. Vale plans to invest about $290 million in the project. After the news, Vale's New York - listed stock rose 3.4% to $9.77, with a market value of about $42 billion [14]. - Last week, the processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 400 - 650 yuan per ton, a 50 - 80 yuan per ton increase. The increase was due to the upward shift of the domestic copper premium center after the contract change and the recovery of terminal demand after the copper price decline. In the East China market, the transaction improved, but the overall delivery progress was not ideal due to poor downstream operation. In the South China market, the transaction changed little, and downstream cable enterprises mostly purchased recycled copper rods [15].