短期拨款提案参议院受阻，美国"政 府关门"风险再起 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 政治两极化发展和利益博弈致使美国重大公共政策制定陷入僵局，美国历史上曾 多次面临"政府关门""财政悬崖"以及债务违约的风险 美国两党因医疗保健支出分歧较大而导致短期拨款提案未能获得参议院通过，美 国政府运转的资金大概率将会在 9 月末耗尽，如果届时两党之间未能就短期拨款 提案达成一致，美国"政府关门"风险将大幅走高 美国两党依旧在为避免"政府关门"而努力，但如果发生政府停摆，将会在短期内 冲击联邦政府机构的运行，导致政府功能受限和资本市场震荡；本次短期支出提案 是否通过并不会影响政府债务的发行和偿付，发生政府债务违约的风险很低 须延长补贴则应附加更严格的收入限制与防欺诈机制。考虑到美国参、众两议院将进 入为期一周的休会，而目前维持美国政府运转的资金大概率将会在 9 月末耗尽，如果 届时两党之间未能就短期拨款提案达成一致，美国"政府关门"风险将大幅走高。 美国两党依旧在为避免"政府关门"努力，但如果发生政府停摆，将会在短期内 冲击联邦政府机构的运行，导致政府功能受限和资本市场震荡； ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the phone conversations between US President Trump, Russian President Putin, and Ukrainian President Zelensky, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][5][6]. - Trump had a phone call with Zelensky before his conversation with Putin, although the specific details of the discussions have not been disclosed [5][6]. - Following the call with Putin, Trump plans to reach out to Zelensky again, suggesting a continuous dialogue between the US and Ukraine [7]. Group 2 - Russian presidential spokesman Peskov mentioned that the scheduling of a meeting between Trump and Putin is under careful consideration, indicating that no preparations are currently underway for such a meeting [3]. - Peskov expressed that Russia would appreciate US involvement in mediating the Russia-Ukraine issue, highlighting the potential for US-Russia cooperation in resolving the conflict [3]. - The Russian and Ukrainian delegations resumed direct negotiations in Istanbul on May 16, reaching a consensus on the exchange of 1,000 prisoners, although no significant breakthroughs were achieved in the talks [3].