短期拨款提案参议院受阻，美国"政 府关门"风险再起 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 政治两极化发展和利益博弈致使美国重大公共政策制定陷入僵局，美国历史上曾 多次面临"政府关门""财政悬崖"以及债务违约的风险 美国两党因医疗保健支出分歧较大而导致短期拨款提案未能获得参议院通过，美 国政府运转的资金大概率将会在 9 月末耗尽，如果届时两党之间未能就短期拨款 提案达成一致，美国"政府关门"风险将大幅走高 美国两党依旧在为避免"政府关门"而努力，但如果发生政府停摆，将会在短期内 冲击联邦政府机构的运行，导致政府功能受限和资本市场震荡；本次短期支出提案 是否通过并不会影响政府债务的发行和偿付，发生政府债务违约的风险很低 须延长补贴则应附加更严格的收入限制与防欺诈机制。考虑到美国参、众两议院将进 入为期一周的休会，而目前维持美国政府运转的资金大概率将会在 9 月末耗尽，如果 届时两党之间未能就短期拨款提案达成一致，美国"政府关门"风险将大幅走高。 美国两党依旧在为避免"政府关门"努力，但如果发生政府停摆，将会在短期内 冲击联邦政府机构的运行，导致政府功能受限和资本市场震荡； ...

Company News - Tencent Music plans to acquire Himalaya Holdings for a total of $1.26 billion, which will make Himalaya a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Music after the transaction closes [6] - The transaction involves the cancellation of equity securities held by Himalaya's shareholders and employee stock plan participants in exchange for cash and Tencent Music's Class A ordinary shares [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer inflation expectations have significantly changed, with the one-year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May, marking the first decline in 2024 [3] - The three-year inflation expectation also decreased from 3.2% in April to 3.0% in May, indicating a shift in consumer sentiment regarding future inflation [3] Market Performance - As of June 10, the U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.01%, the Nasdaq up 0.33%, and the S&P 500 up 0.22% [1] - TSMC's stock rose over 2% following a 39.6% year-on-year revenue increase in May [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.05% [1] Political Developments - The U.S.-China economic and trade negotiations continued into the second day, indicating ongoing discussions between the two nations [2] - President Trump announced a plan to establish a $1,000 "Trump Account" for every child born in the U.S. between January 1, 2025, and January 1, 2029, funded by the U.S. Treasury [4] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that the U.S. government could run out of funds to meet its obligations as early as mid-August, raising concerns about a potential debt default [5] - Trump expressed that he would not sell his Tesla Model S, which symbolizes his friendship with Elon Musk, despite previous reports suggesting he might [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, asserts that the U.S. will never default on its debt, aiming to alleviate concerns from Wall Street regarding the country's fiscal situation, especially in light of warnings from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon about a potential collapse in the U.S. bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Treasury Secretary's Statements - Yellen emphasizes that the U.S. will not hit a fiscal wall and will remain vigilant regarding its debt obligations [1]. - She refrains from disclosing the "X date," which refers to when the Treasury will exhaust its cash and special accounting measures to meet federal obligations under the debt ceiling [1]. - Yellen predicts that if the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended, the U.S. could run out of borrowing authority before August [1]. Group 2: Response to Wall Street Concerns - Yellen counters Dimon's warning about a potential collapse in the U.S. bond market, stating that such predictions have not materialized in the past [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office has warned that without new budget legislation, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed levels not seen since the 1940s [2]. - Moody's has recently downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, following similar actions by other major rating agencies [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Projections - Yellen argues that many forecasts do not account for significant revenue increases from Trump's new import tariffs, which could generate trillions in government revenue [3]. - She claims that the government's budget deficit this year will be lower than last year's, with further reductions expected in two years [3].

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen reassured Wall Street that the U.S. will never default on its debt, stating that the country is on a warning track but will not hit a "default wall" [1] - Concerns about rising federal debt are heightened as President Trump urges Congress to pass his "beautiful bill," which is expected to increase the federal deficit [1] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that without new budget legislation, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed the peak levels of the 1940s in the coming years [1][2] Group 2 - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warned that Trump's plan could add approximately $3 trillion in debt over the next decade, with the bill already passed in the House and heading to the Senate [2] - Investors are worried about the debt ceiling increase, which is tied to Trump's tax and spending plan, complicating negotiations in Congress [2] - Yellen did not specify the "X date," when the Treasury would run out of cash, indicating that this information is used to push the bill through [2] Group 3 - Musk criticized the large spending bill, expressing disappointment that it undermines government efficiency efforts [3] - The Trump administration claims that the bill will not increase the deficit and that existing forecasts do not account for the economic growth benefits [4] - Yellen stated that this year's deficit will be lower than last year and will continue to decrease in the following years [5] Group 4 - Trump's tariff plan faced obstacles as a court ruled that the president lacked the authority to impose most tariffs, although the ruling was temporarily stayed [6] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce assured that even if certain powers are restricted, alternative methods to impose tariffs will be found [6]

智通财经6月1日电，美国财长贝森特称，美国"永远都不会发生债务违约"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, asserts that the United States will never default on its debt [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the government's commitment to maintaining its financial obligations and ensuring confidence in U.S. debt securities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury data reveals a significant shift in foreign holdings of U.S. debt, with China reducing its holdings while the UK increases its investments, indicating changing dynamics in global debt ownership [1][6]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Holdings - As of March 2025, China has reduced its U.S. debt holdings by $18.9 billion, bringing its total to $765.4 billion, while the UK has increased its holdings by $29 billion to $779.3 billion, surpassing China as the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt [1][2]. - Japan remains the largest holder of U.S. debt, with holdings of approximately $1.13 trillion [2]. - The total foreign ownership of U.S. debt reached a record high of $9.05 trillion by the end of March 2025, with seven of the top ten foreign holders increasing their investments [6]. Group 2: Credit Ratings and Economic Indicators - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124% and annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, with projections indicating this ratio could rise above 135% in the coming years [4]. - Following Moody's downgrade, other rating agencies like Fitch and S&P also removed the U.S. from the highest credit rating category, raising concerns about potential debt default [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Despite the reduction in Chinese holdings, other countries, including the UK and Japan, have shown confidence in U.S. debt by increasing their investments, reflecting a broader trust in the U.S. government's ability to meet its debt obligations [6]. - The Federal Reserve holds over $4.2 trillion in U.S. debt, providing a significant buffer and liquidity support for the U.S. government, which has a total debt of $36.2 trillion [5][9]. - Although the U.S. faces increasing debt challenges, U.S. Treasury securities remain one of the most stable and liquid financial assets globally, maintaining their critical role in the international financial system [9].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the estimated date for the debt ceiling will be announced soon [1] - The U.S. debt ceiling is on a "worrisome track" [1] - The U.S. will never default on its debt [1] Group 2 - The government is still in the process of collecting tax revenue [2]