制度性安排提供过渡基础：美联储此前提前完成各地区联储主席重新任命，被视作稳定联邦公开市场委员会结构、维护政策独立的制度举措。关键人事变动 前夕，此举意在强化地区主席与理事共同构成的决策框架，削弱单一职位更替的不确定性。 该举措为继任者设定依赖共识而非绝对权威的决策环境。无论继任者身份，均需在现有委员会结构中争取多数支持，无法单纯推行个人主张。制度设计本身 即构成平稳过渡保障。 分析人士普遍认为，鲍威尔选择彻底离开的可能性较高。 他任职期间，始终将维护美联储的独立性与公信力置于重要位置。若其认为核心的制度"护栏"依然牢固，能够确保政策不受非专业因素过度干扰，那么"功 成身退"无疑是最符合机构利益和个人声誉的选择。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于明年五月结束其主席任期。 理事任期虽持续数年，近期动态显示其卸任主席后大概率彻底离开美联储。此举非仅个人选择，更关乎美联储制度独立与政策连贯深层议题。 彻底交棒，避免以理事身份继续留任可能带来的"影子权威"困扰，被视为对继任者的尊重，也是对美联储内部权力更替惯例的遵循。这种做法有助于确立新 领导的权威，维护决策团队的纯粹性。 最终决定受制于两大变量：接任主席人选若显著偏离现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin supporting a 50 basis point rate cut and predicting a total cut of 150-175 basis points for the year indicate an urgent debt crisis in the U.S., which is a rare occurrence as Treasury Secretaries typically avoid discussing Federal Reserve policies to maintain its independence [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The U.S. faces a staggering $37 trillion in national debt, with annual interest payments reaching $1.2 trillion, which is consuming the federal budget. A 300 basis point rate cut could save nearly $1 trillion annually for the White House, potentially funding several of Trump's policy commitments [3]. - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is unprecedented, with Vice Chair Bowman shifting to support a rate cut cycle, while Trump's nominee Waller publicly questions Powell's leadership, indicating political interference [3][5]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's actions to potentially replace Federal Reserve leadership, including nominating candidates who advocate for presidential control over Fed officials, threaten the independence established since the Fed's inception in 1913, raising concerns in global markets [5][7]. - If Powell is forced to resign, the yield spread on U.S. Treasuries could widen by 200 basis points, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets, with Deutsche Bank simulations predicting a more severe impact than Nixon's interventions in the 1970s [7]. Group 3: Inflation and Global Currency Trends - U.S. inflation is facing new challenges, with the core CPI rising to 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, and 90% of U.S. importers planning to raise prices in the next three months, further exacerbating inflationary pressures [9]. - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating globally, with countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia moving towards alternative currencies for trade, while central banks are increasing gold reserves, indicating a shift in the international financial landscape [11]. Group 4: Global Financial Order - The ongoing struggle between Trump and the Federal Reserve not only impacts the U.S. economy but also has profound implications for the global financial order, as the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency relies on the Fed's independence and the stability of the U.S. financial system [13]. - Continued political interference could hasten the decline of dollar hegemony, leading to significant changes in the global monetary system, presenting both challenges and opportunities for global investors [13].