Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight rebound today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% to 3836.77 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.37% to 12585.08 points. The total trading volume decreased slightly to 1.7 trillion yuan, indicating a market that has released previous gains but still faces some adjustment pressure [1] - The gaming sector showed strength today, with the gaming ETF (516010) increasing by 3.22%. Despite a recent pullback, the industry's fundamentals remain strong, and the cost reduction through AI continues, suggesting a favorable entry point for investors [1] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded significantly, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.97% to 25716.50 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.78% to 5545.56 points. Despite previous concerns over high valuations in the AI sector, the current low valuations present a buying opportunity for investors [2] Gold Market - In the gold market, the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate increased, leading to fluctuating interest rate expectations. Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine, and ongoing tensions between China and Japan, have increased demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The outlook for gold remains supported by the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, and a global trend towards de-dollarization, suggesting a strategic opportunity for investors to accumulate gold ETFs (518800) [2] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The newly established commercial insurance innovative drug catalog provides a potential funding pool of approximately 20 billion yuan for innovative drugs. The innovative drug sector is showing positive growth, with revenues reaching 48.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.41%, and a significant reduction in net profit losses [3] - The increasing approval of domestic innovative drugs and their international market expansion indicate a promising future for the innovative drug industry, with investment opportunities available through innovative drug ETFs (517110) and the Guotai Science and Technology Innovative Drug ETF (589720) [3]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月19日电 本周伊始，国际现货金价震荡企稳。尤其是周一（11月18日），国际金价盘 中跌破4000美元关口后企稳回升，日涨0.54%。随着金价日K线走出带有长下影线的小阳线形态，短期 暂时守稳4000美元整数，预计或将维持震荡反复行情。 基本面上分析来看，美国政府停摆结束已告一段落，美联储降息预期降温成为抑制当前金价的最大影响 因素。近期，美联储官员的表态显示内部分歧进一步加深，美联储降息概率从早期的80%以上降至60% 左右，而随着多位美联储官员先后发表鹰派表态，市场对12月降息的预期进一步降低，特别是美联储副 主席杰斐逊明确表示"进一步降息需要缓慢推进"之后，市场对12月降息的押注一度降至40%左右。目前 虽有部分美联储官员仍然支持降息，但或仍将是"风险管理式"的预防性降息。 与此同时，地缘政治方面再现不确定性，特朗普暗示可能扩大在拉丁美洲的军事行动范围，这一表态可 能推升市场的避险需求。 综合而言，降息预期继续对短期金价形成压制作用，而地缘局势的紧张限制了金价的下行空间。从基本 面看短期金价将继续维持震荡横盘格局。不过，部分央行持续增持黄金，全球去美元化的货币重构背景 没 ...

美国长期以来就是坚持翻脸如翻书的政策，如今美国总统已经公开强调，美国要制裁与俄罗斯有贸易往来的 国家，并且是要用课税500%的方式。 2025年11月，美国政府宣布给予匈牙利为期一年的能源制裁豁免，允许其继续进口俄罗斯石油，理由是"匈牙 利作为内陆国家高度依赖俄能源"。 就在同一时间段，美国国会却在积极推动一项针对与俄罗斯维持贸易往来经济体的制裁法案，明确提出要加 征500%的关税，而印度因为持续从俄罗斯进口石油并出口成品油，正成为这项法案的重点针对对象。 这种截然不同的待遇，赤裸裸地暴露了美国所谓"基于规则的国际秩序"不过是服务于自身利益的工具，双标 的底色早已昭然若揭。 美国对俄罗斯的制裁早已不是新鲜事，自2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来，西方国家对俄罗斯实施的制裁措施已超 过1.5万项，其中美国主导的就有3500多项。 但到了2025年，美国似乎觉得这些手段还不够，又想出了加征500%关税的"狠招"。 据路透社报道，美国国会在2025年初就开始酝酿相关法案，声称要"切断俄罗斯通过第三方国家获取战争资 金的渠道"，而印度被美国视为"重点关注对象"。 美国总统在公开场合多次抨击印度，称其在俄乌冲突期间"攫取了巨大 ...

相关机构表示，上周四起，多名美联储官员表态对通胀的担忧，鹰派言论打压降息预期；美国政府停摆 结束，降低黄金短期避险吸引力。但美国政府仍然面临多重问题，宏观环境也存在不确定性，地缘紧张 局势或持续刺激资金的避险需求。预计短期内金价或延续震荡；中长期"美联储开启降息周期+海外宏 观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价构成一定支撑，或可考虑逢低分批布局。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 ...

一、基本面： 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特明确表示，预计第四季度GDP将因政府停摆而下降1.5%，这一显著的经济增长预期下 修，直接指向经济动能放缓，这无疑会削弱美元的强势基础，并提升黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。更重要的是，他直言"看 不到不降息的太多理由"，这一罕见的鸽派表态与市场对货币政策转向的期待形成共振，暗示未来利率水平有望下移，而黄 金作为无息资产，其持有成本将随之下降，这对金价构成根本性支撑。 其次，经济数据的混乱与不确定性为金价提供了温床。特朗普承认政府停摆造成了1.5万亿美元的巨大损失，但其全面影响 需数周甚至数月才能厘清，同时关键的经济报告如就业数据将缺失失业率这一核心指标。这种数据层面的"真空"与失真， 使得市场和经济学家难以准确评估美国经济的真实健康状况，不仅加剧了市场波动，也迫使投资者寻求黄金这类不依赖于 单一国家经济数据的硬资产来对冲不确定性风险。 上图为白银15分钟图，图中可见，价格前期上行趋势多头动能充足，短期虽有回落，但尚未改变整体上行结构，目前再次 上行，显示多头优势强于空头，同时价格上穿均线MA20和MA60，显示行情多头或将有所延续。布林带拐头向上，或预示 行情将继续上 ...

11月11日，盘中黄金又经历了震荡的一天。在经历了前期的暴涨暴跌后，近期的金价可谓是实现了另类 的稳定，一直不上不下地震荡于4000美元/盎司附近。而伴随着金价的来回波动，不少本来坚定的朋 友，都开始动摇。打开微博，隔几天就能看到类似"黄金的长期逻辑变了吗"的提问登上热搜。今天，同 样作为一名黄金投资者，我们不聊基金，聊聊黄金，当下形势还能否长期持有。 其中，相较于传统实物黄金，类似上海金ETF（159834）及其联接基金（联A类018391，C类： 018392）这类跟踪金价的ETF，或将能够更好的助力投资者分享机遇。而与国内传统黄金ETF不同的 是，传统黄金ETF挂钩上海黄金交易所Au99.99现货价格，上海金ETF（159834）主要投资标的为上海 金合约。 相较于传统黄金ETF，该产品具有四大优势：一是可进行货币管理增厚收益。上海金ETF是保证金交 易，意味着基金管理人可以进行一定的货币管理。 二是可投资品种更丰富。相较大部分黄金ETF，上海金ETF可投资范围更广，可以投资于所有的黄金现 货合约，还可以参与黄金租赁。宽广的投资范围，意味着基金管理人可以更好的管理基金，有更多的玩 法。 首先先来看近期震 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in gold and gold stocks are primarily due to a temporary easing of risk aversion, leading to some profit-taking, but the long-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged [2][4] Group 1: Market Performance - After a significant rise since August, COMEX gold peaked at $4,398 per ounce in late October and has since consolidated around the $4,000 mark, closing at $4,007.8 on November 7, with a slight increase of 0.42% [2] - As of November 7, domestic gold ETFs have seen a total net subscription of 27.3 million shares in November, with the largest being Huaan Gold ETF, which gained 6.97 million shares [3] Group 2: Investment Trends - Several funds have begun recommending gold ETFs, with a notable allocation of 15% to Huaan Gold ETF by a wealth management product, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold amid increased market volatility [4] - The fund managers believe that the recent gold price adjustments are indicative of a temporary easing of geopolitical risks, and they anticipate a new cycle for gold driven by its monetary attributes in response to dollar credit issues [4] Group 3: Tax Implications and Investment Strategy - The recent tax changes on gold do not directly affect gold prices but increase the transaction costs for physical gold, while gold ETFs remain unaffected as they do not involve physical delivery [5] - It is recommended to adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy for long-term investments in gold ETFs, with a suggested allocation of 5% to 15% of total assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices, particularly around the $4000 per ounce mark, have raised questions about its investment value, with a notable increase in inflows into gold ETFs despite recent price corrections [3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - After reaching a new high of $4398 per ounce in late October, COMEX gold has since corrected and is currently stabilizing around $4000 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.42% to $4007.8 per ounce on November 7 [1]. - The total net subscription for gold ETFs has reached approximately 273 million shares since the beginning of November, indicating strong investor interest [4]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Performance - Several gold ETFs have experienced a rebound, with some products seeing a cumulative increase of over 3% from November 5 to November 7, 2023 [4]. - The largest domestic gold ETF, Huaan Gold ETF, has seen a net subscription of 69.7 million shares, while another ETF, Huaxia Gold ETF, followed closely with 67 million shares [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Fund managers suggest that the recent adjustments in gold prices are primarily due to a temporary easing of risk aversion, but the long-term investment logic for gold remains intact [5]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to support gold's long-term performance, with recommendations for investors to consider a systematic investment approach in gold ETFs, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5% to 15% [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The global technology sector is under pressure due to concerns over the valuation bubble in US tech stocks, but the Hong Kong tech sector remains attractive for long-term investment due to stable domestic fundamentals, potential continuation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and ongoing innovation in domestic companies [1]. Fund Flow Analysis - Despite recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong tech sector, funds continue to flow into ETFs, with the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) attracting a total of 2.13 billion yuan over three trading days (November 3-5), making it the only ETF tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index to exceed 2 billion yuan in inflows during this period [1]. - On November 5, the Hang Seng Tech ETF saw a record single-day net inflow of 1.2 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception on May 24, 2021, with a trading volume of 6.809 billion yuan, up 26% from the previous day [1]. Fund Performance - The Hang Seng Tech ETF has experienced positive growth in fund shares for eleven consecutive trading days (October 21 - November 5), with a net subscription of 1.572 billion shares on November 5, bringing the total fund size to 55.188 billion shares, a new record since its inception [1]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index, closely tracked by the ETF, includes 30 strong R&D internet and manufacturing tech companies, showcasing a significant "global valuation gap" with current P/E and P/B ratios at approximately 53% and 44% of those of the Nasdaq Index, respectively [1]. Market Dynamics - According to CICC, the Hong Kong market has been active and leading globally this year, characterized by a highly structured rotation, with capital inflows driven by both global "de-dollarization" narratives and domestic investors seeking higher returns amid a lack of investment opportunities [1]. - The Hang Seng Tech ETF is positioned as a key tool for investors looking to allocate to core assets in the Hong Kong tech sector, benefiting from its large scale, superior liquidity, and low management fee of 0.2% per year [1]. Management and Experience - The manager of the Hang Seng Tech ETF, Huatai-PB Fund, is one of the first ETF managers in China, with over 18 years of experience in ETF operations, having launched several leading ETFs in the A-share market [1].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal mining sector is experiencing a correction, but the mining ETF (561330) has shown a year-to-date increase of over 80%, indicating potential for re-entry after the pullback [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Insights - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with Antofagasta, a major Chilean copper producer, announcing that its 25-year copper production may only meet the lower guidance limit due to inflation-related capital expenditure cuts [3]. - Several projects, including Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg, have lowered their medium-term production guidance by nearly 500,000 tons, leading to a significant reduction in copper supply growth compared to last year [3]. - The mid-term copper supply is expected to remain tight, providing upward support for copper prices [3]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - After a rapid increase over the past two months, gold prices are experiencing heightened volatility, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [3]. - Factors such as excessive money supply, fiscal deficit monetization, and global geopolitical instability are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The combination of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, increased macroeconomic uncertainty abroad, and a global trend towards de-dollarization is expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - According to Dongfang Securities, the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, resource strategic importance, and the transformation of old and new industries [4]. - Industrial metals like copper are gaining attention due to improved supply-demand dynamics, while strategic resources such as lithium and rare earths are seeing sustained demand growth amid the energy transition [4]. - Overall, the non-ferrous metals industry is benefiting from structural supply-demand contradictions and the overlapping demands of new and old industries, exhibiting independent operational characteristics [4]. Group 4: Mining ETF (561330) Performance - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Non-Ferrous Index by nearly 10% year-to-date as of October 31, 2025, due to its concentrated holdings in leading companies [5]. - The ETF tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which consists of 37 components, with the top ten stocks accounting for 7.26% of the index, indicating a more precise capture of market trends compared to the broader index [5]. - The higher concentration of gold, copper, and rare earths in the mining ETF, which makes up 54.9% of the index, enhances its responsiveness to favorable catalysts in these sectors [8].