Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week, but the forward guidance may be mixed and carry a mildly hawkish tone [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market's perception of a rate cut in December may be overly optimistic, with the probability of a cut estimated at 60%-70%, compared to the market's expectation of 96% [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation expectations remain high, posing a persistent risk, especially amid ongoing economic uncertainty [1] - In the long term, if economic growth remains resilient, the Federal Reserve may tolerate inflation rates above 2% [1]