Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 15% for the second time this year, indicating a continuous effort to manage inflation and assess both domestic and external risks [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Central Bank of Russia has now reduced the benchmark interest rate for the seventh consecutive time [1] - The bank anticipates that the inflation rate for the entire year of 2026 will decrease to between 4.5% and 5.5%, with expectations of approaching 4% in the second half of the year, down from the current rate of 5.9% [1] Group 2: External Influences - The Central Bank's Governor, Nabiullina, mentioned that the situation in the Middle East could potentially increase global economic costs, which may eventually impact prices in the Russian market [1] - The assessment of the overall impact of external events on the Russian economy is considered premature at this stage [1] Group 3: Currency and Inflation Outlook - Nabiullina indicated that the conflict in the Middle East might negatively affect Russian export logistics, with the extent of the impact depending on the duration of the conflict [1] - In the short term, the situation may support export revenues and the ruble exchange rate, but could later become a factor driving inflation [1] - The current exchange rate is influenced by low oil prices in January and the suspension of budget rules, making it too early to discuss a clear weakening trend of the ruble [1] - The Central Bank will continue to proceed with rate cuts in a smooth and balanced manner to ensure inflation returns to 4% [1]

Group 1 - The Hungarian central bank has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, aligning with market expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 15.5%, indicating a continued balanced growth in the Russian economy and a forecasted decline in inflation rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Central Bank of Russia announced a reduction in the benchmark interest rate from 16% to 15.5% [1] - This marks a continuation of the rate cuts that began in June 2025, when the rate was first lowered from a historical high of 21% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Central Bank noted that the fundamental indicators of price growth have not changed significantly, and inflation is expected to resume a downward trend after the impact of one-time factors dissipates [1] - The bank forecasts an annual inflation rate of 4.5% to 5.5% for Russia by 2026 [1] Group 3: Future Rate Decisions - Future decisions regarding the benchmark interest rate will depend on the sustainability of domestic inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations [1] - Current inflation risks are primarily associated with geopolitical uncertainties, deteriorating external trade conditions, and fluctuations in international oil prices affecting the local currency exchange rate [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia announced a reduction in the benchmark interest rate to 15.5% on February 13 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Milan has resigned from his position as Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, having been on leave since becoming a member of the Federal Reserve Board in September 2025 [1][2]. Group 1 - Milan joined the Trump administration's Economic Council in January 2025 and was appointed to complete the remaining term of former member Adriana Kugler, who resigned unexpectedly in August 2025 [1][2]. - Milan has consistently advocated for significant interest rate cuts since joining the Federal Reserve Board, voting against the majority in all four Federal Open Market Committee meetings he attended [2]. - In three of those meetings, the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, while Milan pushed for a 50 basis point cut [2]. Group 2 - In the most recent meeting in January, Milan opposed the decision to maintain the interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, advocating for a 25 basis point reduction instead [2].

Group 1 - The National Bank of Ukraine lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 15%, marking the first rate cut since March of the previous year [2] - The decision to cut rates comes as inflation has decreased from 15.9% in May to 8% in December, supported by better harvests and stable exchange rates [2] - The European Union has committed to providing €90 billion in loan support to Ukraine, which has alleviated some risks associated with funding uncertainty [2] Group 2 - Ukraine has reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a four-year aid program exceeding $8 billion, pending approval from the IMF board [3] - The approval of the IMF program is contingent upon the Ukrainian government submitting a bill to increase tax burdens on individual entrepreneurs and expand taxation on overseas packages [3] - The central bank predicts that these measures will boost foreign exchange reserves to a record high of $65 billion by 2026 [3] Group 3 - The GDP growth forecast for Ukraine has been revised down from 2% to 1.8% due to extensive damage to the country's energy infrastructure [4]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have historically surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, just over 100 days after breaking the $4000 mark, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty [1] Group 2 - The Israeli Defense Forces have entered a state of heightened alert, closely monitoring regional tensions and preparing for potential U.S. military actions against Iran [3] Group 3 - Iranian armed forces have entered a state of full readiness in response to perceived military threats, warning of severe consequences for U.S. strategic miscalculations [4] Group 4 - Turkey's Foreign Minister has warned external forces against attempting to influence Iran's internal affairs [5] Group 5 - Russia is closely monitoring U.S. plans to deploy the Iron Dome missile defense system in Greenland, highlighting the strategic importance of the region [6] Group 6 - Rick Riedel from BlackRock has emerged as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with a 50% probability of nomination, due to his alignment with the Trump administration's economic policies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has announced a reduction in the benchmark interest rate from 38% to 37%, marking the first rate cut since 2026 [1] Group 1 - The interest rate was lowered by 100 basis points [1] - This decision reflects a shift in monetary policy by the Central Bank of Turkey [1] - The rate cut is significant as it is the first since 2026, indicating a potential change in the economic environment [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Egypt has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 20%, which was below the market expectation of 21.00% [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia announced a reduction of the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16%, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut [1][3] - The bank aims to maintain a necessary tight monetary policy to restore the inflation rate to its target level, with current inflation at 6.6% as of November [3][5] - The government expects inflation to decrease to between 5.7% and 5.8% by the end of the year, still above the 4% target [3][5] Group 2 - The Central Bank initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in June, lowering the rate from a historical high of 21% to 20% [5] - Subsequent rate cuts have continued, with the most recent adjustment in October bringing the rate down to 16.5% [5] - The next board meeting to review further adjustments to the benchmark rate is scheduled for February 13 of the following year [5]