在资本市场狂欢的同时，贵金属领域也迎来了"过山车"式的极致反转。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，金 银价格的反复拉扯反映了交易者对于宏观流动性预期的极度敏感。事实数据表示，白银上周在经历 92 进入本周，市场焦点将完全锁定在因政策延迟而延后发布的美国 1 月非农就业报告上。目前市场共识预 期新增就业人数约为 7 万人，失业率预计维持在 4.4% 的高位。考虑到周二即将公布的美国零售销售数 据以及周五的核心 CPI 通胀读数，这三大支柱数据将共同构筑市场对美联储下一步政策导向的终极预 期。此外，RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，地缘政经局势也带来了新的波动点，高市早苗在日本选举中的 绝对优势促使日元同步走强，日经 225 指数对此反应积极，相关货币对的联动效应或将在本周外汇市场 持续发酵。 综上所述，尽管短期内受政府关停及解密文件等突发因素干扰，但全球主要资产的底部支撑已初步显 现。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，本周将是宏观政策与经济数据共振的超级周，非农报告的超预期表现 可能成为美元及大宗商品走势的分水岭。在当前高波动率的环境下，投资者应密切关注本周四英国 GDP 数据的发布及日本施政方向的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum 2025" held in Guangzhou focuses on the theme "New Pattern, New Path," gathering global political, business, and academic elites to explore changes and development opportunities [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - Northeast Securities Chief Economist Fu Peng emphasizes that market traders should pay more attention to real-time economic data rather than the Federal Reserve's dot plot [1] - Fu Peng warns that the political inclinations within the Federal Reserve, due to new appointments, may lead to discrepancies between forward guidance and actual data [1] - He uses a metaphor to explain that while the U.S. government will not overtly intervene in the Federal Reserve, it may gradually shift power through subtle methods akin to corporate governance [1] Group 2: Financial Order and Stability - Fu Peng suggests that actions by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen in the stablecoin sector may indicate the quiet construction of a new financial order that operates alongside the old system [1]