来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Wintermute 报告称，自 2024 年底起，加密与美股的零售资金相关性由正转负，零售资金创 纪录流入美股，同时加密市场趋于观望，山寨币市值与零售活跃度同步走弱。数据显示 BTC/NDX 波动 率比持续下行，2025 年上半年一度低于 2 倍，叠加 ETF 等工具与跨平台交易打通，资金在两类资产间 切换更便捷。报告认为，美股零售活跃度已成为加密市场重要前瞻指标，投资需从多资产配置视角审 视。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recovery of the U.S. stock market, particularly the rebound of major indices, has significantly alleviated the tension in the cryptocurrency market, allowing Bitcoin to reclaim the $65,000 mark [1][4] - The collective rebound of the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices, with the Dow gaining 370 points and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.77%, provided crucial macro support for the cryptocurrency market to halt its previous decline [1][4] - A notable "super whale" spot buy of approximately $4.5 million was observed, which, while not massive in absolute terms, exceeded the typical order size for such investors, indicating a defensive positioning by deep market funds [1][4] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently at an extreme oversold level, with the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 25.71, the lowest since July 2022, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [2][5] - The price of Bitcoin is less than 9% away from its 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of approximately $58,855, a level that has historically acted as a significant support [2][5] - Analysts indicate that for a true reversal to occur, Bitcoin must achieve a balance in the risk-reward ratio and confirm mining cost prices, with future monetary policy direction being a critical factor [2][5] Group 3 - Although the current oversold signals present a possibility for a rebound, confirmation of the bottom will require time and sustained liquidity [3][6] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the support strength of the 200-week moving average and any marginal changes in macro liquidity policy, as the market often needs additional positive catalysts to initiate a new upward trend [3][6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/25 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.25%报 5160.50 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.57%报 87.07 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 0.35%，报 66.08 美元/桶；布油主力合约跌 0.06%，报 ...

策略研究 · 全球大类资产配置观察 海外市场有何异动？ ——全球大类资产配置观察 2026 年 2 月 22 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-8092-7696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 孔玥 ：kongyue_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525100001 相关研究 2025-11-22，变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来——2026 年 A 股 市场投资展望 2025-11-06，A 股三季报业绩有哪些看点？2025-10-23， 划重点：二十届四中全会公报对 A 股投资的启示 2025-10-26，布局消费主题投资机遇— "十五五"规划展 望系列 2025-08-20，反内卷中寻投资机会—— "十五五"规划展 望系列 2025-08-06，七部门剑指新型工业化，金融活水锚定新 质生产力 2025-07-31，8 月投资组合报告：政策预期+业绩护航 2025-07-31，7 月决议偏鹰，9 月降息窗口还在吗？ 2025-07-30，7 月政治局会议对 A 股市场的投资指引 2025-07- ...

近期，美国与伊朗刚刚结束了一轮谈判。当谈判尘埃落定，许多国际观察者心中抱有一丝期许，认为这或许是中东这个长期动荡不安的火药桶局势的一个转 折点，能够借此契机得到缓解。然而，现实却无情地打破了这种希望。局势不仅没有得到缓和，反而如同干柴被点燃，火势迅速蔓延，且愈发难以扑灭，似 乎在酝酿着更大的风暴。 金融市场一向是敏感的风向标，它的变化常常先于政治和军事局势作出预警。最近的股市波动就揭示了这一点。由于中国春节假期休市，A股没有参与这一 轮的波动，但欧美股市和日本股市却全线下跌。即便是港股，刚恢复交易的第一天，也迎来了大幅低开，唯有能源股的价格逆势上涨。与此同时，黄金和原 油这类通常与地缘政治紧张局势相对应的大宗商品的价格，却出人意料地逆市上扬。尤其是黄金，在几日前一度跌至4850美元/盎司后，迅速反弹，重新突 破5000美元/盎司大关。这一切都在向市场发出一个隐含的信号——美国可能很快就会对伊朗采取军事行动。 从军事实力对比来看，伊朗无论如何也无法与美国和以色列联手的军队匹敌。美国是全球军事技术最先进、装备最精良的国家，其军队在全球范围内的作战 经验丰富，战斗力异常强大。以色列，作为中东地区的军事强国，其军事科 ...

经济观察网 根据公开市场信息，美国绿星球（PLAG.AM）股票在2026年2月19日的上涨，主要与当日 美股市场的整体氛围及部分板块的活跃表现相关。 股票近期走势 从个股数据看，美国绿星球当日成交金额为73,655美元，量比为2.19，显示其交易活跃度较近期有明显 提升。该股所属的企业集团板块当日亦上涨0.39%。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 888、666、188……专属炒股靓号来了！新年定制福利，开启马年投资好运>> 当日美股市场情绪偏暖，纳斯达克指数收涨0.78%，科技股普遍上涨。同时，市场对地缘政治局势的担 忧（如潜在的美伊军事冲突风险）推升了原油及贵金属价格，带动了相关资产的市场关注度。在这种市 场环境下，部分中小盘股票出现资金流入和交易活跃的情况。 板块表现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial struggles faced by individuals in the current economic climate, highlighting the risks of investment and the erosion of purchasing power due to inflation and market volatility [1][12][21]. Group 1: Market Volatility and Investment Risks - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices has led to significant losses for retail investors, who are often left vulnerable in a volatile market [1][5]. - Historical events, such as the 2018 P2P industry collapse and the 2015 stock market crash, illustrate the recurring nature of financial crises that disproportionately affect individual investors [3][5]. - The shift in financial policies, including the end of guaranteed returns on investments, has left many investors exposed to market fluctuations [11][12]. Group 2: Psychological and Behavioral Factors - Many individuals fall into a "trap of identity," becoming complacent with their financial status and making poor investment decisions based on perceived wealth [14][16]. - The desire for social status can lead to overspending and increased financial risk, further diminishing individuals' ability to withstand economic downturns [16][19]. Group 3: Inflation and Erosion of Wealth - The article emphasizes the impact of inflation on purchasing power, noting that stagnant interest rates on savings accounts fail to keep pace with rising living costs [21][22]. - The hidden nature of inflation acts as a "silent thief," gradually reducing the value of money over time, making it difficult for individuals to achieve financial growth [24][36]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Financial Health - The article advocates for a diversified investment approach, suggesting that individuals should maintain a safety net of liquid funds while cautiously exploring other investment opportunities [31][34]. - Emphasis is placed on investing in personal skills and health as core assets that cannot be taken away, highlighting the importance of self-improvement over speculative financial ventures [36][41]. - The concept of "anti-fragility" is introduced, suggesting that building a resilient financial system is crucial for navigating uncertain economic conditions [46].

当地时间2月18日，欧洲股市迎来普涨行情。英国富时100指数盘中创出历史新高，法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数、欧洲斯托克50指数集体逼近历史新 高。 大宗商品市场方面，国际贵金属价格、油价集体反弹，伦敦金现货价格收复4900美元/盎司关口。 欧洲股市高开高走 国际金价、油价集体反弹 当地时间2月18日，欧洲股市高开高走，多个股指盘中创出历史新高或逼近历史新高。 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间2月18日20:50，英国富时100指数涨逾1%，盘中创历史新高；法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数、欧洲斯托克50指数分别上涨 0.4%、0.73%、0.87%，集体逼近历史新高；意大利MIB指数涨逾1%。 国际油价方面，NYMEX原油期货主力合约、ICE布油期货主力合约均涨逾2%，前者逼近每桶64美元关口，后者逼近每桶70美元关口。 | 伦敦金现 | | 伦敦银现 | COMEX真 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4931.611 | | 75.548 | 4943. | | +54.971 +1.13% +2.055 +2.80% +37.7 +0 | | | | | COMEX白银 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The long-term allocation value of precious metals like gold and silver remains strong, driven by geopolitical events and the changing global political landscape [2][12][21] - Despite a recent historic drop, the removal of inappropriate leverage enhances the safe-haven attributes of gold and silver, making them attractive for long-term investment [3][19][20] - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices, with significant daily fluctuations, highlights the importance of momentum trading strategies [14][15][19] Group 2: Digital Currency - Digital currencies, particularly Bitcoin, follow a four-year cycle characterized by one year of decline followed by three years of growth, with the current year being the final downtrend phase expected to last until September or October 2025 [22][24][26][30] - While there may be technical rebounds during this downtrend, the overall long-term outlook for digital currencies remains bullish [30][89] Group 3: Industrial Metals - A significant shortage of copper is anticipated in the coming years, driven by increased demand in the new energy and AI sectors [5][34][36] - Copper prices have reached $14,000, aligning with previous target prices, and are expected to rise further after a consolidation phase [6][62][97] - The overall commodity sector is not finished rising, as supply shortages and previous price suppression will lead to increased demand [43][102] Group 4: Stock Market Outlook - A-shares are favored in the short term due to clearer policy factors and supportive measures from the Chinese government, while H-shares are more affected by uncertainties in U.S. Federal Reserve policies [8][46][107] - The upcoming Two Sessions and anticipated economic growth targets are expected to bolster A-shares [48][107] Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is believed to have bottomed out, with expectations for upstream profit margins to expand in the coming months due to strong commodity price momentum [9][50][111] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate further, supported by high trade surpluses and improved manufacturing competitiveness, which will aid in the revaluation of Chinese assets [10][52][116]

Macro Events Impacting the Mexican Market - The Mexican market may experience volatility due to macro events that could affect related funds and stocks [1] Industry Policy and Environment - The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is set for a formal review in the summer of 2026, with potential disputes over origin rules, labor, and energy issues possibly increasing market volatility [2] Policy Situation - The Bank of Mexico plans to lower the benchmark interest rate to 7% by December 2025, with expectations of further reduction to around 6.5% in 2026; inflation is projected to return to the 3% target range by the third quarter of 2026, influenced by domestic and external economic data [3] Capital Flow Trends - As of early February 2026, investors are increasingly shifting towards international equity funds, with emerging markets experiencing net inflows for the seventh consecutive week, which may indirectly affect asset allocation in Mexico [4] Future Development - External uncertainties, including the Federal Reserve's policy pace, expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and changes in carry trade structures, may exert short-term pressure on the peso exchange rate and capital flows, impacting the stock market; Mexico's economy is expected to recover moderately in 2026, but attention is needed on trade policies and inflation risks [5]