Core Viewpoint - U.S. stocks are expected to continue the rally observed on Tuesday, with significant gains in blue-chip indexes across Asia and Europe, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1] Group 1 - U.S. stocks are poised to extend the rally from Tuesday [1] - Blue-chip indexes in Asia and Europe have surged, reflecting strong market performance [1] - Investors are anticipating an address from Trump for updates on the ongoing conflict, which may influence market dynamics [1]

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - Methanol closed at 3296.00 with a weekly increase of 5.24%;焦煤 closed at 1219.00 with a 4.10% increase; PTA closed at 6876.00 with a 3.40% increase; copper closed at 95930.00 with a 1.26% increase; palm oil closed at 9768.00 with a 0.51% increase; rebar closed at 3124.00 with a 0.03% increase. Aluminum closed at 23935.00 with a -0.35% decrease; iron ore closed at 812.00 with a -0.43% decrease; corn closed at 2369.00 with a -0.75% decrease; silver closed at 17489.00 with a -0.77% decrease; glass closed at 1041.00 with a -1.23% decrease; ethylene glycol closed at 5279.00 with a -1.38% decrease; live pigs closed at 9965.00 with a -2.50% decrease; soybean meal closed at 2937.00 with a -3.04% decrease; gold closed at 998.66 with a -4.16% decrease; crude oil closed at 740.80 with a -4.24% decrease; PVC closed at 5615.00 with a -4.43% decrease; polysilicon closed at 35680.00 with a -5.52% decrease [2] A-shares - CSI 500 closed at 7737.61 with a -0.29% decrease; SSE 300 closed at 4502.57 with a -1.41% decrease; SSE 50 closed at 2837.31 with a -1.61% decrease [2] Overseas Stocks - FTSE 100 closed at 9967.35 with a -1.29% decrease; France CAC40 closed at 7701.95 with a 0.47% increase; Nikkei 225 closed at 53373.07 with a 0.49% increase; Hang Seng Index closed at 24951.88; S&P 500 closed at 6368.85 with a -2.12% decrease; Nasdaq Index closed at 20948.36 with a -3.23% decrease [2] Bonds - China's 5-year treasury bond yield was 1.56 with a 0.67bp increase; 10-year treasury bond yield was 1.82 with a 0.39bp increase; 2-year treasury bond yield was 1.31 with a -0.28bp decrease [2] Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index closed at 100.17 with a 0.67% increase; US Dollar mid-price was 6.91 with a 0.35% increase; Euro to US Dollar was 1.15 with a -0.50% decrease [2] Commodity Views Macro-financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: 1-2 month industrial enterprise profits increased by 15.2% year-on-year, high-tech manufacturing profits grew by 58.7%, policies are releasing signals for stable growth, and stock index valuations are at a low historical level. Bearish logic: Uncertainty in the Middle East, rising Fed rate hike expectations, decreased trading volume, and potential weak terminal demand [3] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Safe-haven sentiment supports bonds, loose liquidity, and policy support. Bearish logic: Strong economic resilience, rising inflation expectations, and reduced short-term rate cut expectations [3] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Military confrontation between Iran and the US, disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, slow inventory reconstruction, and supply-demand imbalance. Bearish logic: Release of strategic reserves, increased Russian oil supply, OPEC+ production increase plan, and potential for a ceasefire [4] Agricultural Products Sector Soybean Meal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: High US soybean export inspections, rising fertilizer prices, slow Brazilian soybean arrivals, and increased feed demand. Bearish logic: Increasing soybean arrivals in April, faster Brazilian soybean harvest, expected increase in new-season soybean planting area, and long-term supply surplus [4] Non-ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Attacks on aluminum plants in Bahrain and UAE, strong LME spot premium, rising domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates, and a strong technical rebound. Bearish logic: Global inflation, potential recession trading, high domestic aluminum inventories, and low aluminum rod processing fees [5] Chemical Sector Methanol - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 1 expects a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Decreased Iranian methanol plant operating rates, improved downstream enterprise profits, increased downstream olefin demand, and accelerated inventory reduction. Bearish logic: Uncertainty in the conflict and potential price corrections [5] Precious Metals Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Geopolitical risks, high oil prices, and potential capital inflows. Bearish logic: Reduced market liquidity, unclear Fed rate cut path, strong US Dollar, and gold sales by some countries [6] Black Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Rising energy prices, increased blast furnace operating rates, increased downstream inventory replenishment, and a favorable supply-demand pattern. Bearish logic: High domestic coking coal production, high Mongolian coal imports, and intense futures market competition [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and declined. The uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is relatively high. There is still a possibility of an escalation of the situation, which could lead to a global energy crisis and severely impact the macro - economy. In this context, stock market investors' risk preference tends to be cautious, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has been below 2 trillion yuan for many days, indicating weak trading willingness [3]. - In terms of domestic fundamentals, the export data from January to February exceeded expectations, and the data on social retail and industrial added value were also better than expected. Domestic policies may focus more on structural adjustment compared to last year, with fiscal efforts mainly for support, and the emphasis on promoting consumption and technological breakthroughs. Policy - side benefits form the medium - to - long - term logic for the upward movement of stock indices, and stock indices have strong support [3]. - Overall, it is expected that stock indices will mainly fluctuate and consolidate within a range in the short term. In the options market, the PCR of open interest has rebounded from a low level, and the at - the - money implied volatility of options has returned to stability, indicating that market sentiment has stabilized. Since there is still support for stock indices, a bull spread or covered call strategy can be used [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Related Charts - **上证 50ETF Option**: The report presents charts of the 上证 50ETF's price trend, historical volatility, open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [5][6]. - **上交所 300ETF Option**: Charts of the 上交所 300ETF's price trend, historical volatility, open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone are shown [7][8]. - **深交所 300ETF Option**: There are charts of the 深交所 300ETF's price trend, historical volatility, open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [15][16]. - **沪深 300 Stock Index Option**: The report includes charts of the 沪深 300 stock index's price trend, historical volatility, open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [26][27]. - **中证 1000 Stock Index Option**: Charts of the 中证 1000 stock index's price trend, historical volatility, open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone are provided [35][36]. - **上交所 500ETF Option**: There are charts of the 上交所 500ETF's price trend, historical volatility, open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [46][47]. - **深交所 500ETF Option**: The report shows charts of the 深交所 500ETF's price trend, historical volatility, open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [61][62]. - **上证 50 Stock Index Option**: Charts of the 上证 50 index's price trend, historical volatility, open - interest PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone are presented [72][73].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From March 23 to March 27, the Middle - East situation continued to affect the prices of major asset classes. Globally, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds continued to decline, and commodities showed relatively strong performance. In China, stocks and commodities declined, while the bond market fluctuated. Overall, in dollar terms, commodities > bonds > stocks globally, and bonds > commodities > stocks in China. The Middle - East situation remains highly uncertain and will continue to impact major asset prices in the short term [3][6][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Global Major Asset Performance 1.1 Global Stock Market Overview - Most major global stock markets declined in the week from March 23 to March 27. US stocks had the largest decline, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index rose weekly. For specific regions, in the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region dropped 1.52%, and the South Korean Composite Index fell 5.92%. In the European market, the ASCI Europe rose 0.12%. In the American market, the MSCI US declined 2.11%. In other markets, the Tel - Aviv 125 Index fell 5.22% [8][9][10] 1.2 Global Bond Market Overview - In the week of March 23 - 27, the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 5BP to 4.44%. The bond market declined weekly, with the performance order globally being credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds. The global bond index fell 0.49%, the global government bond index dropped 0.58%, and the global credit bond index decreased 0.38% [12] 1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From March 23 to March 27, the market's risk - aversion sentiment continued, and the US dollar index rose weekly, with a 0.67% increase. Most major non - US currencies declined against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly [12] 1.4 Global Commodity Market Overview - Geopolitical factors supported the weekly increase in international oil prices. Most prices of major international precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products rose. The CRB spot index: comprehensive rose 1.41%, Brent crude oil increased 1.80%, and WTI crude oil rose 3.15% [14][15] 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance 2.1 Domestic Stock Market Overview - Investor sentiment remained cautious. Major A - share broad - based indices generally declined, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. The CSI 500 index was more resilient. The basic chemicals and non - ferrous metals sectors rose, while the non - banking and computer sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% [18][19] 2.2 Domestic Bond Market Overview - From March 23 to March 27, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively stable, and the bond market fluctuated slightly stronger. Overall, government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds. The ChinaBond - Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.09% [20][21] 2.3 Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the chemical and non - ferrous sectors had the largest increases, while precious metals performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.25% [22][23] 3. Outlook for Major Asset Prices - Overall, the Middle - East situation remains highly uncertain and will continue to have a certain impact on major asset prices in the short term. It is necessary to closely monitor its changes [27]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is experiencing a "stagflation-like" environment, characterized by rising inflation and stagnant economic growth, primarily driven by increasing oil prices and tightening dollar liquidity [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The U.S. stock market has entered a correction phase, with the Nasdaq index down over 10% from its January peak, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also falling more than 10% [2][3]. - **Oil Price Impact**: Oil prices have surged past $83 per barrel, reaching $100, negating the effects of fiscal tax cuts and significantly impacting consumer purchasing power [3][4]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: Recent macroeconomic indicators, including a decline in the composite PMI and rising import price indices, suggest a slowdown in economic growth, with Q1 GDP growth projected at only 1% [4][5]. - **Tightening Dollar Liquidity**: There are signs of tightening dollar liquidity, as evidenced by the overnight repo rates consistently exceeding excess reserve rates, indicating a shift towards a more restrictive monetary environment [1][6][7]. - **Credit Market Conditions**: High-yield bond spreads have widened, and there are emerging restrictions in private credit markets, indicating a tightening of credit conditions [7][8]. Additional Important Content - **Consumer Confidence**: The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has been revised downwards, reflecting consumer concerns over rising inflation and economic uncertainty [4][5]. - **Comparison with Historical Context**: The current stagflation risks differ from the 1970s due to reduced reliance on imported energy and improved energy efficiency, but the impact is expected to be more severe than during the 2022 Ukraine crisis due to a lack of substantial policy support [5][9]. - **Asset Performance**: Traditional safe-haven assets like gold have underperformed, with the market now favoring the dollar and oil as primary safe assets [8][9]. - **Investment Strategy for 2026**: Given the current economic and market conditions, a defensive investment strategy is recommended, focusing on risk reduction and waiting for more stable market conditions before making significant investment decisions [9].

Market Reactions to Oil Prices - The inverse correlation between Brent oil prices and the S&P 500 index has continued, with high oil prices persisting during the ongoing conflict [2] - Traders are betting on a potential asymmetry in oil prices, anticipating a gradual increase if the conflict continues, but a swift decline if a resolution occurs [3] Impact of Geopolitical Events - The market appears to be less concerned with the details of ongoing talks regarding de-escalation, indicating a level of optimism that the situation may not be as prolonged as previously feared [4][5] - The current geopolitical situation is unique due to the strategic importance of the Strait, which limits alternative options for oil supply [10] Market Dynamics and Trading Behavior - Short-term traders are influencing market movements, with day-to-day fluctuations driven by positioning rather than fundamental changes [7][8] - The market has shown resilience following social media posts from influential figures, indicating a psychological aspect to trading behavior [9] Economic Implications - The ongoing military crisis has significant implications for oil production and storage, affecting the broader economy, including food costs due to fertilizer supply issues [11][12] - The potential for dislocations in the market could extend beyond the immediate inverse relationship with Brent oil if a resolution is not reached [13]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with New York crude oil dropping to $85.66, a decrease of 12% within the day, and Brent crude oil falling to $94.33, down over 11% [1][2] - The opening price for New York crude was $100.51, reaching a high of $101.67 and a low of $84.37, indicating a volatility of 17.61% [2] - Precious metals prices rebounded, with spot gold's decline narrowing and spot silver turning positive [4] Group 2 - European stock markets quickly rebounded, with the French CAC40 index rising nearly 1.5%, and both the FTSE China A50 index futures and MSCI China A50 interconnect index futures also increasing by nearly 1.5% [6] - U.S. President Trump announced a temporary pause on military strikes against Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on successful ongoing discussions [6] - The Asia-Pacific stock market faced significant declines, with 133 stocks in A-shares hitting the daily limit down, and Hong Kong tech stocks experiencing a sharp drop, exemplified by Hua Hong Semiconductor falling by 5% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in Iran has escalated, impacting global energy markets and financial stability, with Brent oil prices exceeding $110 per barrel and significant volatility in various asset classes [1][5][20]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The conflict has led to a substantial increase in Brent oil prices, which have risen to over $110 per barrel, and a 13% daily increase in TTF natural gas prices [1]. - Financial markets have experienced heightened volatility, with gold prices dropping 15% and U.S. Treasury yields rising to 4.4%, marking the highest volatility since April 2025 [1][3]. - The market's expectation for the conflict's resolution has shifted from a quick end to a prolonged standoff, with the probability of resolution by March dropping from 78% to 4% [5][7]. Group 2: Asset Class Expectations - Different asset classes reflect varying expectations regarding the conflict and oil prices, indicating both risks and opportunities for investors [7]. - Bond markets are pricing in a pessimistic outlook, while equity markets have not fully accounted for the potential prolonged nature of the conflict and sustained high oil prices [7][21]. - Current expectations suggest that if the conflict does not extend into the third or fourth quarter, there may be opportunities to go long on bonds and gold, as their current pricing appears overly pessimistic [45]. Group 3: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Without the Iranian conflict, U.S. inflation is projected to peak at 2.8% in the second quarter, allowing for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year [8][10]. - A sustained oil price above $100 per barrel could push inflation expectations higher, complicating the Fed's ability to cut rates [10][11]. - The market anticipates that if oil prices remain high, the Fed may delay rate cuts, with current expectations pushing the timeline for any cuts to September 2027 [21][34]. Group 4: U.S. and Chinese Market Impacts - U.S. equity markets have shown resilience compared to global markets, but there is a potential for a 10% correction if the conflict escalates further [35]. - In China, markets are experiencing divergence, with sectors sensitive to liquidity, such as Hong Kong and A-shares, reacting more negatively to the situation [41][42]. - The ongoing conflict may lead to a decline in external demand and impact sectors like chemicals and transportation, while defensive sectors in A-shares may provide better protection [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report If the war persists, asset pricing may shift from "inflation" to "imported inflation," and the market needs to distinguish between them. The report reviews three instances of imported inflation triggered by wars in the last century and three inflation patterns in China since 2020, offering insights for trading in imported inflation [6][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Imported Inflation Experiences - **First Oil Crisis (197310 - 197403)**: "Stagflation" emerged for the first time, with commodities leading in gains and smooth price transmission. The macro - trading clue shifted from "weak dollar" to "stagflation" trading. Commodities and the dollar rose, while U.S. stocks and bonds declined. Commodity price performance was energy > fertilizer > precious metals > base metals > agricultural products [21][23][26]. - **Second Oil Crisis (1979 - 1980)**: With recession as the cost of aggressive interest - rate hikes, the U.S. got out of the stagflation shadow, and U.S. stocks performed best. The market was more about marginal inflation trading. Stocks > commodities > dollar > U.S. bonds. Inflation transmission was not smooth within commodities [28][31][34]. - **Gulf War (199008 - 199101)**: It was a minor episode of "imported inflation" during the recession and interest - rate cut cycle, with bonds performing best and risk assets declining. Asset pricing was more like "recession" pricing [5][36][38]. Domestic Imported/Supply - Driven Inflation - **Three Phases since 2020**: They are the supply - driven inflation in the second half of 2021, the inflation triggered by the "Russia - Ukraine conflict" around March 2022, and the price rebound driven by "anti - involution" from July to October 2025. Commodities were dominant in all three phases, but the performance order of other assets varied. The impact of domestic imported or supply - driven inflation is relatively small, and it did not change the pricing logic of various assets [6][41][50]. Conclusion - **Asset Performance Patterns**: There is no unified pattern for the performance of major assets during imported inflation. The performance of major assets is related to the macro - environment, and the optimal asset in the portfolio could be stocks or bonds [52]. - **Sub - Asset Performance**: Energy commodities are relatively dominant, but the increase in crude oil prices is narrowing. Inflation transmission often fails to reach agricultural products. The longer the war lasts, the more unfavorable it is for non - ferrous metals. The logic of precious metals is relatively independent, and imported inflation has a catalytic impact on equity assets. Interest rates are affected by inflation expectations and monetary policies, and the domestic bond market is not sensitive to imported inflation [52][53][54].

Market Overview - Crypto markets experienced a slight increase on March 17, 2026, as investors navigated rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East alongside uncertainty before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [1] - U.S. equity futures indicated a cautious market sentiment, with Nasdaq 100 futures initially trending down before rising by 0.16% and S&P 500 futures slipping before rebounding by 0.24% [1] Oil Prices and Impact - The market sentiment was muted following a positive start to the week, where equities rallied due to easing oil prices, but crude oil prices resumed their upward trend [2] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 3.7% to nearly $97 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 3.2% to $103.50 [2] Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.09% over the past 24 hours, trading around $74,038, briefly approaching $76,000 before retracing [2] - Ethereum (ETH) gained 2.2%, and XRP (XRP) climbed 2.9%, while Solana (SOL) saw a slight decrease of 0.1% [3] - Digital assets have demonstrated greater resilience compared to traditional assets like gold and silver amid escalating geopolitical tensions since February 28 [3] Geopolitical Hedge Narrative - Some market participants are increasingly viewing cryptocurrencies as a hedge against geopolitical instability, although analysts caution that crypto remains closely linked to macroeconomic signals, particularly U.S. monetary policy [3] Interest Rate Expectations - Risk appetite in both traditional and digital markets is heavily influenced by expectations surrounding interest rates and liquidity conditions [4] - The FOMC meeting on March 17–18 is critical, with investors previously anticipating multiple rate cuts in 2026, but renewed inflation risks from rising energy prices and conflict-related disruptions have complicated this outlook [5] - Markets are now pricing in a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates within the 3.5%–3.75% range, with potential cuts postponed until at least September [6] - Recent economic data, including a consumer price index showing inflation steady at 2.4% year-over-year, adds to the uncertainty, as it does not fully reflect the recent spike in oil prices [6]