格隆汇1月30日｜美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，考虑到财政赤字下降，市场利率应当相应 下调。他同时批评美联储本周未选择降息是错误的决定，并指出通胀已接近目标水平。哈塞特强调，政 府的职责在于为美联储创造更有利的政策环境，并对美国在低通胀条件下实现高经济增长抱有信心。此 外，哈塞特也对被美联储主席提名人沃什表达了高度尊重，表示白宫有信心沃什提名会迅速获得确认。 他本人虽未被提名为美联储主席，但对此并未感到失望。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to halt balance sheet reduction on December 1 aims to address liquidity risks in the money market, marking a significant shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1][2]. Background of Policy Adjustment - Signs of liquidity risk are emerging, with overnight rates rising and the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) and Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) showing significant increases, indicating tightening liquidity in the U.S. banking system [2]. - The reserve levels are nearing critical thresholds, with bank reserves dropping to $2.93 trillion, approximately 9% of GDP, close to the liquidity adequacy threshold of $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion [2]. - Economic pressures include a cooling job market and persistent high inflation, with the September CPI at 3% but core inflation remaining above the 2% target due to tariffs and other factors [2][3]. Impact on U.S. and Global Markets - The cessation of balance sheet reduction is expected to stabilize bank reserves, alleviate short-term financing pressures, and reduce volatility in repo rates [5]. - Demand for U.S. Treasuries may increase as the Fed reallocates maturing MBS funds to Treasuries, easing upward pressure on long-term interest rates, particularly benefiting short-term bonds [5]. - The stock market may see limited support from liquidity improvements, as corporate earnings and the pace of interest rate cuts remain dominant factors [5]. - Globally, the end of liquidity withdrawal could stabilize dollar financing costs, reducing capital outflow pressures in emerging markets, which may benefit from capital inflows and narrowing sovereign debt spreads [5]. - Commodity performance may vary, with gold supported by declining real interest rates, while a strong dollar may suppress overall commodity performance [5]. Potential Risks - Risks include the possibility of recurring inflation; if the U.S. economy proves more resilient than expected, rising inflation could compel the Fed to slow down rate cuts, counteracting the effects of liquidity easing [5]. - Political pressures may challenge the Fed's independence, and aggressive rate cuts could impact the credibility of the dollar [5]. Future Outlook - In the short term, the likelihood of further rate cuts in December remains uncertain, depending on employment and inflation data, with current market expectations at about 70% [6]. - In the medium to long term, if reserves continue to deplete, the Fed may initiate structural quantitative easing to provide deeper economic support, primarily to prevent liquidity crises rather than to stimulate the economy actively [6].