Group 1: Macroeconomic Dynamics - The expectation of a US interest rate cut is a key driver for the recent rise in gold prices, with the 2-year US Treasury yield declining by 44 basis points from July 16 to September 5, while gold prices increased by 7.5% during the same period[6] - The US employment data has shown a rapid decline, with an average of only 27,000 new jobs added per month from May to August, supporting the Fed's potential rate cut in September[4] - The ICE US Dollar Index's non-commercial net short positions have increased, indicating a growing bearish sentiment towards the dollar, which historically correlates with rising gold prices during periods of rate cuts[2][8] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Factors - The Trump administration's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence has raised concerns about the credibility of the dollar, contributing to upward pressure on gold prices[13] - Asian markets have significantly contributed to gold demand, with over 400 tons added to global gold ETFs this year, of which more than 100 tons came from Asia, increasing its share by 2 percentage points compared to the end of 2024[21] - The Indian market is expected to increase its gold purchases due to deteriorating US-India relations, with India adding 12.2 tons to its official gold reserves from January to September 2025[25] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The gold market is currently described as "hot but controllable," with significant interest but not excessive speculation, as evidenced by lower levels of speculative positions compared to 2024[30][32] - Google search interest in "gold price" has surged since April 2025, indicating heightened global attention towards gold[28] - The largest physical gold ETF's holdings have increased, but the growth rate and absolute levels remain below those seen in 2020, suggesting a more measured investment approach from Western investors[30]