节日期间，COMEX期金涨势如虹、再创新高，现货金更是首度冲破每盎司4000美元关口。地缘与经济 风险攀升，叠加市场对美国降息的预期升温，驱动投资者蜂拥买入黄金避险。白银市场同样趋紧，租赁 利率走高，印度季节性需求旺盛助力涨势。多重利好共振助推金银上扬：美降息预期、经济前景不明、 央行大举扫货、ETF资金涌入及政府停摆引发的避险潮。 美国政府停摆持续至第八日，关键数据发布停滞，投资者转而依赖非官方渠道研判美联储政策动向。参 众两院围绕拨款法案激烈博弈却均告失败，共和党方案因未获60票支持而流产，民主党提案亦遭否决。 CME FedWatch工具显示，市场押注美联储10月降息25基点概率高达98%，12月再降25基点的概率达 90%。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 10月9日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 914.32 | 4.82% | 196141 | 251137 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，10月9日上海黄金现货价格报价910.89元/克，相较 ...

周四（10月9日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4020美元/盎司附近，现货黄金周伞首次突破每盎司4000美 元大关，延续破纪录涨势至4059.07美元/盎司。地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧，以及市场对美国降息的 预期，促使投资者涌入避险资产；美原油交投于62美元/桶附近，油价周三创一周新高，交易商预计乌 克兰和平协议缺乏进展将使对俄罗斯的制裁继续有效。 美联储会议纪要谨慎暗示今年将进一步降息。美联储官员对利率未来走向的分歧越来越大，但多数人认 为，今年有必要进一步降息。周三公布的美联储9月会议纪要显示，委员会正在努力应对相互矛盾的经 济信号，并在顽固的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场哪个是最紧迫的问题上难以达成共识。会议纪要显示，美 联储官员一致认为，鉴于近期疲弱的就业数据，有必要降息一次，但对于未来路径官员产生分歧。不 过，会议纪要显示，"大多数人认为，在今年剩余时间里进一步放松政策可能是合适的。"然而，一些政 策制定者"指出，从若干指标来看，金融状况表明货币政政策并非特别具有限制性，他们认为有必要采 取谨慎的态度"。根据9月份的预测，10名美联储官员暗示，他们预计今年还会再降息两次，9人认为应 该会降息一次或更少。 黄金需 ...

渡己者才能渡人，难熬的不是你每天都在盈利，而是处在逆境时如何解决，人的意志会随着时间的流逝、客观事物的影响而动摇，顺境时要内求，自知者才 能明智，才能走向更高点，逆境时更要内求，强大自己才能克敌制胜！一切外在的根，都源自于我们的内在！我们无法改变客观事物的不确定性，但只有从 始而终去遵循客观事物的规律，才能走的更远！而所谓的规律其实就是历史数据中的既成事实！人性难易，所以，历史也会重演！正如春夏秋冬，四季轮 回，生老病死，喜怒哀乐一样！市场也是如此！因为市场的本质就是人性的博弈！ 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周四（北京时间10月9日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4020美元/盎司附近，现货黄金周伞首次突破每盎司4000美元大关，延续破纪录涨势 至4059.07美元/盎司。地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧，以及市场对美国降息的预期，促使投资者涌入避险资产；周三（10月8日）亚欧时段，全球金融市场 见证了一个里程碑式的时刻——现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司4000美元，截止14:57，一度刷新历史记录高点至至4036.98美元，目前交投于4032.16美元/盎 司附近。在这场黄金盛宴背后，是多方力量的共同托举。美联 ...

【市场要闻速递】 受美国降息预期和美元走软支撑，金价在触及纪录高位后持稳，投资者等待美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲 话，以寻求进一步的政策暗示。黄金短期趋势仍维持看涨，但从盘中来看，预计短期回调更多是受技术 因素影响。经济增长放缓、通胀上升、地缘政治格局变化以及美元走软，将使黄金投资需求保持强劲。 只要黄金发光，投资需求也将继续推动银价上涨。 全球最大黄金etf--iSharesSilverTrust持仓报告显示，9月19日黄金etf持有量为1000.57吨，较上一交易日增 加6.01吨。周一(9月22日)截止收盘，现货黄金报3746.36美元/盎司，涨幅1.68%，日内最高上探至 3748.65美元/盎司，最低触3682.79美元/盎司。 摘要全球最大黄金etf--iSharesSilverTrust持仓报告显示，9月19日黄金etf持有量为1000.57吨，较上一交易 日增加6.01吨。周一(9月22日)截止收盘，现货黄金报3746.36美元/盎司，涨幅1.68%，日内最高上探至 3748.65美元/盎司，最低触3682.79美元/盎司。 ...

| | | | | | | | HE SEVERE T | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/16 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 | | - 1000 | | | (元/吨) | | | | | | 6000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and copper are both expected to be strong in the short - term, with a rising trend in the medium - term and a volatile but strong - biased trend in the intraday period. The core reasons are the approaching US interest rate cuts, the approaching industrial peak season for copper, and the increase in market attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last week, gold prices rose and then fell, followed by high - level consolidation. New York gold oscillated below $3700, and Shanghai gold oscillated below 840 yuan. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22nd, gold prices have been on an upward trend, breaking through the high of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent resurgence of the AI boom has led to new highs in the US Nasdaq and China's ChiNext, increasing market risk appetite and being negative for gold prices. In the long run, the approaching US interest rate cuts have given strong upward momentum to gold prices. Short - term gold prices are expected to be supported by the 5 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to Sino - US - Spanish economic and trade talks and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last week, copper prices increased in volume and rose. Shanghai copper reached above 80,000 yuan, and LME copper reached above $10,000. Technically, copper prices are increasing in volume and price, showing a trend of breaking through the oscillation range since the second quarter [4]. - **Driving Factors**: - **Macro - level**: The US August non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, CPI met expectations, and with the approaching September interest - rate meeting, the probability of a rate cut exceeded 90%, and the probability of 3 rate cuts this year increased to 70%. The weak US dollar led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals, which was beneficial to copper prices from a financial perspective [4]. - **Industry - level**: China has entered the industrial peak season. Low domestic copper inventories and the expected replenishment demand before the National Day have increased market optimism about copper inventory reduction, providing inventory support for copper prices. The expected increase in AI's copper consumption and the significant rise in copper - related stocks in the domestic stock market may drive up the price of raw material copper [4]. - **Technical - level**: Copper prices are increasing in volume and price, with a tendency to break through the oscillation range since the second quarter. It is expected that futures prices will run strongly, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the July high [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that packaging paper prices continue to rise, with a focus on companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International as the peak season approaches. It also notes a decline in furniture exports from China, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% in August, and suggests monitoring the recovery of demand from U.S. real estate-related export companies due to the increasing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market with an index increase of 1.88% compared to the 1.38% rise in the CSI 300 index during the week ending September 12, 2025. The paper index rose by 4.49%, while the packaging printing index increased by 2.79% [16]. 2. Home Furnishing Sector - In July, furniture retail sales showed a significant increase of 20.6% year-on-year, while furniture exports in August decreased by 3.2% compared to July. The report indicates that many home furnishing companies are currently valued at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [39][40]. 3. Paper and Packaging - As of September 12, 2025, the prices for various types of paper have shown mixed trends, with white cardboard prices increasing by 24 CNY/ton and corrugated paper prices rising by 23.75 CNY/ton. The report notes that several paper companies have announced price hikes and maintenance plans, which may support paper prices [48][54]. 4. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector experienced a decline in exports, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.05% in August. The report suggests focusing on companies in the sportswear and outdoor segments, such as Anta and Li Ning, as potential investment opportunities [9][25]. 5. New Tobacco Products - The report discusses the tightening regulations on e-cigarettes in the U.S., which may benefit compliant products. It highlights the potential for market share recovery for companies like Smoore International as they adapt to these regulatory changes [6][7]. 6. Consumer Electronics and Packaging - The upcoming launch of the iPhone 17 series is expected to boost demand for consumer electronics, which may positively impact the packaging sector. Companies involved in eco-friendly packaging are recommended for investment consideration [5][6]. 7. Cost Tracking - The report provides insights into the cost trends of raw materials, noting a decrease in prices for certain chemicals and stable copper prices. It also mentions a decline in shipping costs, which could impact overall production costs in the light industry [41][42]. 8. Printing Industry - The printing industry has seen a slight decline in revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in the first seven months of 2025. However, the report notes an increase in express delivery volumes, indicating a potential area of growth [84][88].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock brokerage sector has experienced a significant rebound, with the brokerage index rising 150% over the past decade, reaching a historical high, driven by various market factors and policy changes [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance and Historical Context - The Hong Kong stock market has undergone approximately seven rounds of brokerage rallies from January 2013 to August 2025, showcasing its volatility and recovery capability [1]. - The first major rally from March 2014 to May 2015 saw the Hong Kong Securities Index increase by 162%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 32% [4]. - Subsequent rallies included a 21% increase in the Hong Kong Securities Index from February to April 2016 and a 20% increase from December 2017 to January 2018 [5][6]. - The most recent rally from September 2024 to now has resulted in a 151% increase in the Hong Kong Securities Index, with a 40% rise in the Hang Seng Index, indicating a significant outperformance of 111% [9]. Group 2: Factors Driving the Market - The initial rally was fueled by expectations surrounding the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, increased corporate financing activities, and a loose liquidity environment [1]. - The second rally was supported by rising international oil prices and policy measures such as reserve requirement cuts in mainland China, alongside the anticipation of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [2]. - Major policy reforms in 2017, particularly new listing rules by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, attracted substantial southbound capital and provided new growth drivers for the brokerage sector [3]. - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a significant increase in global liquidity, accelerating the return of Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong, which boosted brokerage business growth [7]. - Recent market improvements have been attributed to favorable policies and enhanced market sentiment, particularly benefiting Chinese brokerages in underwriting and placement activities [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current brokerage market is characterized by significant policy support, active international and domestic capital responses, and rapidly expanding trading volumes [10]. - The valuation of the brokerage sector is recovering quickly, although individual stock performance shows notable divergence, with some stocks still at historical lows and possessing recovery potential [10]. - Future performance of the Hong Kong brokerage sector will be influenced by global liquidity, policy directions, and corporate fundamentals, making it a sector to watch for investment opportunities [10].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Dynamics - The expectation of a US interest rate cut is a key driver for the recent rise in gold prices, with the 2-year US Treasury yield declining by 44 basis points from July 16 to September 5, while gold prices increased by 7.5% during the same period[6] - The US employment data has shown a rapid decline, with an average of only 27,000 new jobs added per month from May to August, supporting the Fed's potential rate cut in September[4] - The ICE US Dollar Index's non-commercial net short positions have increased, indicating a growing bearish sentiment towards the dollar, which historically correlates with rising gold prices during periods of rate cuts[2][8] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Factors - The Trump administration's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence has raised concerns about the credibility of the dollar, contributing to upward pressure on gold prices[13] - Asian markets have significantly contributed to gold demand, with over 400 tons added to global gold ETFs this year, of which more than 100 tons came from Asia, increasing its share by 2 percentage points compared to the end of 2024[21] - The Indian market is expected to increase its gold purchases due to deteriorating US-India relations, with India adding 12.2 tons to its official gold reserves from January to September 2025[25] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The gold market is currently described as "hot but controllable," with significant interest but not excessive speculation, as evidenced by lower levels of speculative positions compared to 2024[30][32] - Google search interest in "gold price" has surged since April 2025, indicating heightened global attention towards gold[28] - The largest physical gold ETF's holdings have increased, but the growth rate and absolute levels remain below those seen in 2020, suggesting a more measured investment approach from Western investors[30]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold market** and its relationship with **U.S. economic indicators**, particularly focusing on interest rate expectations and inflation trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Drivers**: The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts due to weaker economic data, particularly non-farm payrolls, and manageable inflation risks [2][3][4]. 2. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market has largely priced in a rate cut in September, with expectations of 2-3 cuts by the end of the year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3% by the end of 2025 [3][27]. 3. **Employment Market Analysis**: The decline in non-farm payrolls does not necessarily indicate an impending recession; it reflects a complex interplay of factors including economic slowdown, declining labor participation, and increased AI investments [5][10][11]. 4. **Inflation Dynamics**: Oil prices are identified as the primary driver of U.S. inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to decline due to base effects and falling prices in key categories like used cars and rent [15][17][23]. 5. **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical tensions have historically influenced gold prices, but their impact is currently diminishing as the market stabilizes [37]. 6. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings as part of long-term reserve diversification strategies [31][35]. 7. **ETF Influence**: The relationship between gold prices and ETF holdings is significant; as U.S. Treasury yields decline, ETF purchases of gold are likely to increase, further supporting gold prices [32][42]. 8. **Speculative Indicators**: Speculative long positions in gold can provide some insights into price movements, but their reliability is limited, especially at market peaks [34][36]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Labor Market Trends**: The U.S. labor market is characterized by a "three lows" balance (low hiring, low employment, low unemployment), which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [11][12]. 2. **Future Economic Outlook**: The potential for a global monetary easing environment could benefit both stocks and gold, although stocks may outperform in such scenarios [41]. 3. **Risks to Gold Market**: Potential risks include short-term volatility around the September FOMC meeting and geopolitical developments that could alter central bank purchasing behavior [40][43]. 4. **Long-term Economic Indicators**: The inversion of the nominal GDP and federal funds rate suggests a need for rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures, historically indicating a recession [28]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the interconnectedness of economic indicators, interest rate policies, and gold market dynamics, providing a nuanced understanding of current trends and future expectations.