金价回升至每盎司5,000美元上方，此前弱于预期的美国通胀数据带来提振。澳新 银行分析师写道，这 加大了对美联储将降息的押注。较低的借贷成本通常会支撑 黄金等非生息资产。他们补充说，互换交 易员预计到12月进行第三次降息的可能性约为50%。他们表示，降息将支撑资金流入该贵金属，而地缘 政治和经济不确定性将助推额外的需求。在纽约市场，黄金 期货下跌0.4%，报每盎司5,024美元。 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures are expected to be volatile and moderately strong; for stock index options, the rating is volatile; for treasury bond futures, the rating indicates a moderately strong trend in the medium - term and a need for short - term caution [5][6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Stock index futures followed the external market rebound. The A - share market's rise was related to the global risk - asset sentiment repair on Friday. Before the holiday, the probability of a rapid rebound is low. After the holiday, it is expected to rise moderately but with a slower slope than in January [5] - Stock index options have a warm market sentiment. The trading volume was relatively stable after the market's rise. Considering the approaching holiday and exercise date, it is recommended to use call options for defense [5] - Treasury bond futures saw an increasing bullish sentiment. Supply decreased, the central bank continued net injections, and the market's expectation of loose money increased. The bond market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium - term, but short - term caution is needed [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the equity market opened high and fluctuated at a high level, with the All - A index rising nearly 2%. Communication, media, and electronics were strong. The A - share rebound was related to the global risk - asset sentiment repair on Friday. Before the holiday, the low participation rate and risk - averse capital preference limit a rapid rebound. The weakening dollar index is a favorable factor. After the holiday, during the important meeting window period, the market is expected to rise moderately [5] - The operation suggestion is to hold IM long positions [5] Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety declined significantly. After the market's rise, the trading volume was relatively stable. The strengthening of the option sentiment indicator (position PCR) and the decline in implied volatility suggest a warm market sentiment. It is recommended to use call options for defense to protect the overall portfolio's systematic risk [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Although the equity market was strong, the stock - bond seesaw effect did not occur. The bullish sentiment in the bond market increased due to the decline in supply and the central bank's net injection. The market's expectation of loose money also rose. In the first quarter, the bond - market allocation power may increase, supporting the bullish sentiment. In the medium - term, the bond market may be moderately strong, but short - term factors may cause disruptions [6] - Operation suggestions include a volatile trend strategy, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, a basis - volatile basis strategy, appropriately paying attention to the convergence of the 30Y - 10Y spread, and being aware of the downward momentum of the inter - period spread and the change in the inter - period transfer window due to the Spring Festival [6]

美国政府部分停摆问题暂时缓解。特朗普签署支出法案，使国防、医疗、教育等部门恢复拨款，国土安全部资金延长至2月13日。这降低短期政策不确定 性，但对黄金影响有限。 数据层面，本周市场关注美国ADP私营部门就业数据和ISM非制造业PMI指数。1月非农就业报告不会公布，这两项数据将提供劳动力市场和经济活动参 考。若数据偏弱，可能强化降息预期，对美元施压，为黄金提供上行动能。若数据偏强，可能带来阶段性波动。 技术结构上，黄金突破自5600美元历史高点回调以来的50%回撤位，多头正在测试H4图50周期均线，若价格站稳该位置，多头信心增强。MACD位于零轴 上方，快线在信号线上，柱状图正值扩大，显示多头动能积累。RSI在55.83，处于中性偏强区间，温和上行，未出现超买信号。 近期国际金价出现明显反弹，背后是宏观预期、地缘风险和技术面共同作用。黄金在触及约4400美元低点后，已经反弹超过650美元，市场关注度明显回 升。 美国降息前景是支撑本轮黄金上涨的重要因素。市场普遍预期，美联储今年仍可能进一步降息，这压制美元反弹动能。美元指数此前接近四年低位，短线有 所企稳，但整体承压。在这种环境下，不具备利息收益属性的黄金获得相 ...

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 严晓菲）1月29日日间盘，国内商品期货主力合约多数收涨，其中贵金属板 块持续活跃。 截至15:00收盘，沪银涨超8%，沪金、国际铜涨超7%，沪铜涨超6%，燃油涨4%，焦煤、原油、沥青等 涨超3%，沪锌、纯苯、苯乙烯等涨超2%，菜粕、沪镍、铁矿石等涨超1%，短纤、菜籽、尿素等微涨； 跌幅方面，多晶硅跌超4%，碳酸锂跌超3%，生猪、鸡蛋、胶合板等微跌。 大有期货研报认为，尽管美联储本次议息会议选择按兵不动，但内部支持降息的声音依然存在，这继续 强化了市场对未来美国货币政策转向宽松的预期。美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上试图淡化政治影响并强 调政策独立性，但"加息非基本假设"的表态仍被解读为偏鸽。综合来看，降息预期与避险情绪对金价构 成底层支撑，但短期暂停利率调整与通胀黏性则令上行空间受限，预计贵金属短期将延续偏强，但走势 或减缓，市场需等待更明确的政策信号与经济数据指引。 ...

受益于地缘政治动荡以及对美国降息的预期，共同推动投资者涌入避险资产。 北京时间1月26日亚市早盘，现货黄金价格飙升至历史新高，突破每盎司5000 美元大关，最高逼近5031美元/盎司，延续了此前的历史性涨势。现货白银首次突破106美元/盎司，日内涨近3%。 据格隆汇，此番涨势一方面源于美国总统唐纳德・特朗普的政策对国际关系格局的重塑。美国与北约盟友就格陵兰岛问题不断升级的摩擦，进一步推高了今 年以来的金价，原因是市场预期未来金融和地缘政治的不确定性将进一步加剧。 另一方面则是因为投资者纷纷撤离主权债券与外汇市场。受美国宽松货币政策、各国央行需求以及ETF资金流入创纪录等因素支撑，黄金价格在2025年上涨 逾64%。 此外，疲软的美元进一步提振了市场对贵金属的需求。 来源：读创财经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surpassed $100 per ounce for the first time, while gold approaches $5,000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Silver Market Insights - Current spot silver price is above $101 per ounce, indicating strong demand [1] - Philip Newman from Metals Focus suggests that silver will continue to benefit from multiple factors that also support gold investment demand [1] - Concerns over tariffs and tight physical liquidity in the London market are expected to provide additional support for silver [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Spot gold price is at $4,986 per ounce, reflecting its role as a safe haven during times of economic and political uncertainty [1] - Tai Wong, an independent metal trader, notes that the milestone of $100 for silver was achieved through steady trading, and the focus will now be on whether silver can maintain this level [1] - Wong emphasizes that gold's role as a strategic asset in investment portfolios is underscored by the current economic and political climate, indicating a fundamental shift rather than a temporary situation [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective surge in non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable gains including Xianglu Tungsten Industry hitting the daily limit, Hunan Silver rising over 9%, and Antai Technology increasing by over 8% [1] - Several companies, including Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Hailiang Co., and Antai Technology, reached historical highs in their stock prices [1] - The rise in precious metal prices, including tin and silver, is attributed to increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. and a rise in safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - The LME tin price surpassed $51,000, reaching a record high, while spot silver rose to $89.48 per ounce, also a new record [1] - The market is experiencing divided expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with some investors anticipating two or three cuts this year [2] - Geopolitical risks remain high, particularly concerning potential U.S. intervention in Iran's political situation, which has heightened market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence [2] Group 3 - Notable stock performances include Xianglu Aluminum with a 10.03% increase, Hunan Riyin at 9.20%, and Antai Technology at 8.45%, with total market capitalizations of 5.742 billion, 27.8 billion, and 32.2 billion respectively [3] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains for many companies, with Hunan Riyin up 42.34% and Antai Technology up 46.03% [3] - Other companies such as Hailiang Co. and Xiyang Mining also reported substantial increases, contributing to the overall positive trend in the non-ferrous metals sector [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable gains including Xianglu Tungsten reaching the daily limit, Hunan Silver up over 9%, and Antai Technology increasing by over 8% [1] - Several companies, including Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Hailiang Co., Antai Technology, and Jiangxi Copper, reached historical highs in stock prices [1] - The surge in precious metal prices, including tin futures surpassing 410,000 and LME tin prices exceeding $51,000, is attributed to increasing expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and rising safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - U.S. inflation data for December indicates a potential easing of price pressures, leading to mixed expectations among investors regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with some anticipating two or three cuts this year [2] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased due to a criminal investigation into Chairman Powell's June testimony, alongside ongoing geopolitical risks related to potential U.S. intervention in Iran [2] Group 3 - Specific stock performance data shows significant percentage increases for various companies, with Xianglu Aluminum up 10.03%, Hunan Silver up 9.20%, and Antai Technology up 8.45%, among others [3] - The total market capitalization for these companies varies, with Hunan Silver at 27.8 billion and Jiangxi Copper at 206.8 billion, reflecting their market positions and year-to-date performance [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the non-ferrous metal sector experienced a significant increase of 8.56% from January 5 to January 9, ranking among the top in all primary industries [1][2] - Within the non-ferrous metal sector, the sub-industry performance was notable, with small metals rising by 11.67%, new metal materials by 9.02%, industrial metals by 8.52%, precious metals by 7.28%, and energy metals by 6.30% [1][2] Group 2 - In the industrial metals segment, the US labor market showed signs of slowing down, leading to optimistic market sentiment with expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, resulting in a general increase in industrial metal prices [2] - For copper, supply disruptions have emerged, with the London copper price reaching $12,998 per ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.1%, and Shanghai copper at 101,410 yuan per ton, up 3.23% [3] - The aluminum market is supported by the rising copper-aluminum price ratio, with LME aluminum closing at $3,136 per ton, a 3.81% increase, and Shanghai aluminum at 24,330 yuan per ton, up 6.13% [4] - Gold prices also saw an increase, with COMEX gold closing at $4,518.40 per ounce, a 4.07% rise, and SHFE gold at 1,006.48 yuan per gram, up 2.96% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a significant increase of 8.56% from January 5 to January 9, ranking among the top in all primary industries [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The sub-sectors within the non-ferrous metal industry showed strong performance, with the small metals sector rising by 11.67%, metal new materials by 9.02%, industrial metals by 8.52%, precious metals by 7.28%, and energy metals by 6.30% during the same period [1][2]. - Industrial metals saw a broad increase due to a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, maintaining an optimistic sentiment in the market [2][3]. Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices strengthened, with LME copper closing at $12,998 per ton (up 4.1% week-on-week) and SHFE copper at 101,410 yuan per ton (up 3.23% week-on-week) [3]. - Supply disruptions occurred, including a strike at a small copper mine in Chile and delays in production at the Mirador mine in Ecuador due to political changes [3]. - The overall macro sentiment remains bullish, supported by an increase in registered warehouse receipts for copper, which is expected to maintain a strong price trend in the short term [3]. Group 3: Aluminum Market Insights - The copper-aluminum price ratio's upward trend provided upward support for aluminum prices, with LME aluminum closing at $3,136 per ton (up 3.81% week-on-week) and SHFE aluminum at 24,330 yuan per ton (up 6.13% week-on-week) [4]. - New production capacity in Inner Mongolia increased theoretical operating capacity to 44.265 million tons, while demand showed a slight decline in utilization rates for aluminum products [4]. - Market sentiment remains bullish, with increased trading activity in the spot market and expectations for aluminum prices to trend upward [4]. Group 4: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices increased, with COMEX gold closing at $4,518.40 per ounce (up 4.07% week-on-week) and SHFE gold at 1,006.48 yuan per gram (up 2.96% week-on-week) [5]. - U.S. labor market data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, contributing to the bullish sentiment in precious metals, with expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [5]. - The upcoming BCOM rebalancing is anticipated to amplify market volatility, with a shift in silver leasing rates indicating a reduction in overseas spot tightness [5].