Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns that US tech stocks are not an ideal safe haven amid economic slowdown, highlighting the risks of overly optimistic sentiment on a "soft landing" by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The S&P experienced a rebound in April, but the forward P/E ratio remains at 21, based on profit growth expectations of 10% to 14% over the next two years, which may not adequately account for recession risks [4]. - Economists are increasingly concerned that the Federal Reserve may not have enough time to prevent a severe economic slowdown, with recession probability expectations rising from 22% at the beginning of the year to 53% [6]. - Recent supply chain data shows a sharp decline in import and export volumes at some US ports, and the American Consumer Expectations Index has dropped to its lowest point since 2011, indicating a bleak economic outlook [6]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Kevin Gordon from Charles Schwab emphasizes that relying on US stock P/E ratios for analysis is imprecise due to profit uncertainty, and the current market has not fully absorbed the possibility of a recession [8]. - The uncertainty in trade policies is translating into actual economic pain, and delaying recognition of recession risks could exacerbate economic weakness, making it difficult to reverse the situation even with significant tariffs or trade agreements [8].