格隆汇1月9日｜对于怀疑美国股市在经历暴涨后还能走多远的怀疑论者来说，市场的主导力量之一—— 散户投资者——依然坚定看涨。摩根大通证券分析师Arun Jain的分析显示，继2025年创纪录的表现后， 散户投资者的购买热潮已延续至新的一年。该机构的数据显示，1月前四个交易日的购买量达到了近八 个月来的第二高水平，且日购买量始终高于历史观测值的第85百分位，凸显了异常强烈的信心。这种信 心在近期的回撤期间起到了稳定市场的作用。考虑到这一群体对华尔街日益增长的影响力，如果散户继 续抢购股票，美股的涨势很可能会持续下去。盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示："市场似乎更多 地是由资金流而非估值驱动的。因此，只要个人投资者愿意并能够向股市投入资金，这对大盘来说就是 一个积极信号。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson believes that the U.S. stock market still has further upside potential after four consecutive months of gains, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle will resonate with strong corporate earnings [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is entering an "early cycle phase," characterized by a continuous rebound in nominal corporate earnings alongside declining borrowing costs [1] - Small-cap stocks and other interest rate-sensitive equities have underperformed this year, indicating potential for catch-up gains [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Wilson disagrees with the notion that rate cut expectations have been fully priced in [1] - He warns that weak seasonal trends in September and inflation data exceeding expectations could pose risks to the current rally [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - A potential short-term market pullback could actually lay the groundwork for a strong finish to the year [1]