美豆出口好转预期

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建信期货豆粕日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:38
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - **Contract performance**: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3045, the opening price was 3040, the highest price was 3041, the lowest price was 3013, the closing price was 3028, with a decline of 17 and a decrease rate of -0.56%. The trading volume was 519,043, the open interest was 1,326,501, and the change in open interest was 45,129 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3001, the opening price was 2989, the highest price was 2992, the lowest price was 2963, the closing price was 2983, with a decline of 18 and a decrease rate of -0.60%. The trading volume was 1,013,822, the open interest was 1,468,086, and the change in open interest was -92,213 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3027, the highest price was 3029, the lowest price was 3000, the closing price was 3018, with a decline of 17 and a decrease rate of -0.56%. The trading volume was 135,772, the open interest was 620,262, and the change in open interest was -4,598 [6]. - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1015 cents. The new - season US soybeans are growing well. Although the excellent - good rate dropped to 68% in the latest week, it is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean - growing areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. The demand also has a certain improvement expectation. The US has reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US. With one week left before the final tariff increase, the market expects that other small countries may also reach agreements to purchase agricultural products from the US, slightly reducing the previous concerns about US soybean exports. Overall, US soybeans may still fluctuate in the bottom range [7]. - **Domestic market situation**: Domestic soybean meal was strong in the early stage and has corrected in recent days. China still maintains a 23% tariff on imported US soybeans, and the import window for US soybeans is in the fourth quarter. As time approaches, the fact that China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans was the main reason for the market's rise in the previous few days. China and the US will hold talks on Monday and Tuesday this week. With the US gradually reaching trade agreements with many countries recently, the market expects that the issue of US soybean import tariffs may be mentioned in the meeting. If the tariffs return to the previous level, combined with the current high soybean meal inventory, the market price may decline. However, this is only an expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the actual outcome of this week's negotiations, with increased short - term price volatility expected [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA crop growth report**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the previous week's rate was 68%, and the same period last year was 67%. The flowering rate of US soybeans was 76%, compared with 62% the previous week, 75% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 76%. The pod - setting rate was 41%, compared with 26% the previous week, 42% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42% [10] - **Argentina's export tax adjustment**: Argentine President Milei announced on Saturday that at the request of the country's agricultural department, the export withholding tax rates for poultry, beef, soybeans and their derivatives, corn, sorghum, and sunflowers will be reduced. The export withholding tax rate for beef and poultry meat will be reduced from 6.75% to 5%, for corn and sorghum from 12% to 9.5%, for sunflower seeds from 7.5% to 5.5%, for soybeans from 33% to 26%, and for soybean by - products from 31% to 24.5% [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal (yuan/ton), the basis of the Soybean Meal 09 contract (yuan/ton), the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 (yuan/ton), the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 (yuan/ton), the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][18]