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建信期货豆粕日报-20250929
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 04:21
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 9 月 29 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20250926
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:29
Report Summary - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The previous logic of soybean shortage has loosened due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on soybeans and their by - products, and some domestic oil mills have started to actively purchase Argentine soybeans, shaking the shortage logic for the fourth quarter. With sufficient purchases for September and October, the supply until the end of November is generally worry - free. However, the potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentine soybean purchases, Argentine policy continuity, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. - The market is currently affected by Argentina's policy change and high inventory, leading to a significant price decline. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential bullish factors, and the technical trend is weak. The market is expected to experience low - level fluctuations after a rapid decline [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Contract Performance**: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 2922, the opening price was 2958, the highest price was 2976, the lowest price was 2951, the closing price was 2967, with a rise of 45 and a gain of 1.54%. The trading volume was 1,262,657, the open interest was 1,937,464, and the open interest decreased by 97,619. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 2851, the opening price was 2858, the highest price was 2875, the lowest price was 2858, the closing price was 2870, with a rise of 19 and a gain of 0.67%. The trading volume was 13,790, the open interest was 43,222, and the open interest increased by 4,295. - For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 2895, the opening price was 2929, the highest price was 2950, the lowest price was 2922, the closing price was 2940, with a rise of 45 and a gain of 1.55%. The trading volume was 75,971, the open interest was 479,636, and the open interest decreased by 17,194 [6]. - **External Market and Policy Impact**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract at 1015 cents. Argentina suspended export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. After the tax reduction, the CIF price of Argentine soybeans in China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US. Some domestic oil mills have started to purchase Argentine soybeans, and there have been orders for Argentine soybean meal since mid - to - late August [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Argentina's government announced on Monday that it would suspend export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal until October 31 or until the total export volume reaches 7 billion dollars. Previously, the export tax on Argentine soybeans was 26%, and that on soybean oil and soybean meal was 24.5% [6][7]. - Since Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans and grain by - products this week, Chinese buyers have purchased about 20 ships (about 1.3 million tons) of Argentine soybeans, an increase from the previously reported 10 - 15 ships. In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Among them, the year - on - year growth rates of formula feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed were 3.4%, 8.3%, and 7.9% respectively [18]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 contracts, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the Soybean Meal 01 contract. The data sources are Wind and the Research Center of CCB Futures [11][13][14]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:47
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 9 月 24 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20250922
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:00
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 22, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: For September 22, 2025, the main domestic soybean meal futures contracts showed varying trends. The closing prices of contracts 2601, 2509, and 2511 were 3014, 2899, and 2985 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.43%, 0.35%, and 0.57%. The trading volumes were 895,606, 5,531, and 63,022 respectively, and the open interest changes were -50,756, 1,848, and -3,744 respectively [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The weather for the new - season US soybeans continued to deteriorate, with the latest good - to - excellent rate dropping to 63%, lower than the same period last year, and the drought - affected area rising from 22% a week ago to 33%. The current weather pattern is similar to last year, and there may be adjustments to the yield per unit in the October report [6]. - **Market Focus**: The market focused on the Sino - US economic and trade relations negotiation. From the 14th - 17th, Sino - US representatives held talks in Spain, reaching a general framework agreement on the TikTok incident. However, no further news was reported later in the week. In Brazil, there was sporadic rainfall this week, and the sowing time of new - season soybeans may still be delayed [6]. Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the CBOT price lacks drivers and maintains a narrow - range fluctuation. Externally, attention should be paid to weather and economic and trade negotiations. Domestic soybean meal has been significantly weaker than the external market this week. Due to the slightly bearish USDA report in September and the relatively smooth Sino - US negotiations, the market's long - position risk - aversion sentiment is strong. It is recommended that investors reduce their positions to avoid risks before the National Day. Under the assumption of unchanged tariffs, the long - position window may be in the fourth quarter [6]. Group 3: Industry News - USDA: In September, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season was 4.301 billion bushels, the expected ending stocks were 300 million bushels, and the expected yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, all slightly higher than market expectations [7]. - USDA Crop Growth Report: As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, and the defoliation rate was 41% [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - There are multiple data charts including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][13]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:51
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 9 月 18 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20250908
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:46
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 9 月 8 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20250903
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 02:36
Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts, including 2601, 2509, and 2511, all declined. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 3050, down 10 (-0.33%); the 2509 contract closed at 3006, down 7 (-0.23%); and the 2511 contract closed at 3022, down 11 (-0.36%) [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts were volatile, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The recent decline in soybean meal prices was mainly due to the expected Sino - US trade negotiations and the unexpectedly high excellent - rate of US soybeans [6]. Reasons for the Recent Decline - **Trade Negotiations**: With the approaching US soybean harvest season, US farmers are under increasing pressure. As the largest buyer of US soybeans, China has not purchased new - season US soybeans. The US Soybean Association urged Trump to repair trade relations with China, and Trump said he might visit China this year. There were also rumors of direct state - reserve purchases of US soybeans, causing the market to give back the previous optimistic premium [6]. - **Excellent Rate**: The latest excellent rate of US soybeans announced by USDA this week was 69%, higher than the expected 67%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 67%. The current excellent rate is the highest in the past five years, increasing the pressure of a bumper harvest [6]. Medium - term Outlook - **Import Substitution**: In the fourth quarter, with the 23% tariff on US soybeans remaining unchanged, China may mainly import Brazilian soybeans and supplement with some Argentine soybeans. There may still be a small import gap, which could be filled by state - reserve auctions [6]. - **Cost Trend**: As Brazilian soybeans are being sold out, the marginal price may rise. Considering weather factors, there is little possibility of a significant decline in the Brazilian FOB price in the fourth quarter. The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise steadily in the fourth quarter. With the import of Canadian rapeseed blocked, the medium - term outlook is still bullish after corrections [6]. 2. Industry News - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast**: StoneX predicted that the production of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season (sown in September) would reach a record 178.2 million tons, stable compared with the August forecast. If confirmed, the production would increase by 5.6% compared with the previous year due to the expected increase in planting area and average national yield [8]. - **Pakistan's Purchase Agreement**: Pakistan is expected to sign a major purchase agreement with major US soybean exporters, planning to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans with a total transaction value of about $500 million [8]. - **Brazilian Regulatory Decision**: A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban, temporarily suspending a decision of the Brazilian antitrust regulator CADE, which required global soybean traders to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][13]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250826
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:46
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 豆粕2601 | 3094 | 3094 | 3125 | 3089 | 3117 | 23 | 0.74% | 944017 | 1994689 | -5426 | | 豆粕2509 | 3050 | 3036 | 307 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20250814
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:09
Report Overview - Report Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August supply - demand balance report is unexpectedly bullish for US soybeans. With a reasonable and stable area estimate, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. The potential for further increases in yield is limited, and the negative impact of weather has mostly been digested. Although there is still room for a decline in US soybean export demand, the extent is expected to be small. It is estimated that the low point of CBOT soybeans may have been reached, and the future trend will be a slight upward - trending oscillation. [6] - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the foreign market. There are multiple bullish factors in the near term. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has restricted imports, and the high tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil is beneficial for soybean meal. The 23% tariff on US soybean imports may last until early November, and China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans. However, Brazilian soybeans cannot fully replace US soybeans in quantity, and the FOB price is rising, so the cost of imported soybeans is likely to increase. In the medium term, soybean meal is expected to remain bullish. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3074, the opening price was 3110, the highest price was 3190, the lowest price was 3090, the closing price was 3163, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.90%. The trading volume was 1,964,008, the open interest was 1,935,807, and the change in open interest was 178,676. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3017, the opening price was 3055, the highest price was 3131, the lowest price was 3038, the closing price was 3106, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.95%. The trading volume was 589,795, the open interest was 644,227, and the change in open interest was - 78,924. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3051, the opening price was 3102, the highest price was 3166, the lowest price was 3071, the closing price was 3138, with an increase of 87 and a rise rate of 2.85%. The trading volume was 189,770, the open interest was 615,306, and the change in open interest was - 14,046. - The US soybean futures contract in the foreign market was strong, with the main contract at 1035 cents. [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the medium - term upward trend of soybean meal and the relatively stable situation of US soybeans, but no specific operation suggestions are provided. 3.2 Industry News - The USDA's August report shows that for the 2025/26 US soybean season, the estimated harvested area is 80.1 million acres (market expectation: 82.561 million acres), the estimated yield per acre is 53.6 bushels (market expectation: 52.9 bushels), the estimated production is 4.292 billion bushels (market expectation: 4.365 billion bushels), and the estimated ending inventory is 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels, market expectation: 349 million bushels). [6][14] - As of August 1, based on reports from US farmers participating in the crop subsidy program, the unplanted area of US soybeans was 1.199 million acres, corn was 1.818 million acres, and wheat was 0.277 million acres. The sown area (including failed sowing) of soybeans was 79.761 million acres, corn was 96.524 million acres, and wheat was 48.671 million acres. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of the 09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD - CNY central parity rate, and USD - Brazilian real exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is provided. [10][11][19]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:56
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under research is soybean meal [1] 2. Report Date - The report was released on August 6, 2025 [2] 3. Research Team - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 4. Core Viewpoint - The domestic and foreign markets are diverging. The increase in the FOB quotation of Brazilian soybean exports has led to a steady increase in import costs. The view that the mid - term center of soybean meal will move up remains unchanged [7] 5. Content Summary by Section 5.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes** - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3050, the opening price was 3052, the highest price was 3089, the lowest price was 3051, the closing price was 3065, with a gain of 15 and a gain rate of 0.49%. The trading volume was 573,708, the open interest was 1,487,930, and the open interest change was 24,470 [6] - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3021, the opening price was 3022, the highest price was 3047, the lowest price was 3016, the closing price was 3023, with a gain of 2 and a gain rate of 0.07%. The trading volume was 881,233, the open interest was 1,275,203, and the open interest change was - 83,385 [6] - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3060, the opening price was 3059, the highest price was 3084, the lowest price was 3053, the closing price was 3061, with a gain of 1 and a gain rate of 0.03%. The trading volume was 119,894, the open interest was 630,336, and the open interest change was 4,891 [6] - **Market Analysis** - The US soybean futures contract in the external market fluctuated weakly, with the main contract at 995 cents. The Sino - US talks had no new additional news, and the previous tariffs were extended for 3 months, which depressed the demand outlook for US soybeans. The growth of the new - season US soybeans was good, with a good - excellent rate of 69% in the latest week, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. Only 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and the soil moisture had some tolerance. The expectation of a bumper harvest was gradually strengthening [7] - Although the US had reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, China, the largest exporter of US soybeans, still maintained a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. It was expected that the export of new - season US soybeans would decline [7] - Domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market, in a state of wide - present and tight - future. The import window for US soybeans was in the fourth quarter. As time approached, there were topics and themes for soybean meal to rise. However, China had started importing Argentine soybean meal, and the export tax rate of Argentine soybeans had recently decreased. Although the cost of imported soybeans in China was expected to rise in the fourth quarter, the room for imagination might be relatively limited [7] 5.2 Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report** - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. The flowering rate was 85%, 76% in the previous week, 85% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 86%. The pod - setting rate was 58%, 41% in the previous week, 57% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 58% [10] - **USDA Export Inspection Report** - As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, higher than expected. The previous market forecast was 250,000 - 460,000 tons, 427,734 tons in the previous week (revised from an initial value of 409,714 tons). The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 1, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 266,883 tons. So far in this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 47,834,010 tons, compared with 43,037,528 tons in the same period of the previous year [10][11] - **Canadian Rapeseed Situation** - As of the week ending July 30, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 67.84%. As of the week ending July 29, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 60.3%. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages. Late - sown rapeseed was in the mid - flowering stage, and the earliest - sown rapeseed had fully set pods [11] 5.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [15][16][18]