美豆期货合约
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建信期货豆粕日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:36
021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 今日外盘美豆期货合约偏弱,主力在 1140 美分。周六凌晨 USDA 公布了 11 月月度供需报告,报告对上一年度的产量及压榨做了调整,24/25 年度的期末库 存由 3.3 亿蒲下降至 3.16 亿蒲。另外对 25/2 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:58
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20251105
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry - The report focuses on the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The agreement between China and the US on soybean procurement is expected to reduce the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year from oversupply to a tight balance, leaving room for the US CBOT soybeans to rise. The increase in China's import cost of soybeans will drive up the price of soybean meal. In the short term, CBOT soybeans are well - supported, and soybean meal can be treated with a moderately bullish view [6] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2603, and 2511 all declined slightly on the day. The US soybean futures contracts on the external market fell, with the main contract at 1125 cents. If China purchases 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually in the next three years as the US stated, it will have a significant impact on the soybean market [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, CBOT soybeans are well - supported, and soybean meal can be treated with a moderately bullish view. However, the uncertainty lies in the implementation of the policy [6] 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The report was not released in October due to the government shutdown. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 [9] - According to analysts' estimates, as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate reached 91%, and the corn harvest rate reached 83%. It is expected that the US will have a record - high corn harvest this year, and soybeans will also have a good harvest [10]
建信期货豆粕日报-20251031
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:03
Report Information - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Quotes - **Domestic Soybean Meal Contracts**: The prices of domestic soybean meal contracts such as M2601, M2603, and M2511 showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the M2601 contract closed at 2994, up 20 points or 0.67% [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market pulled back, with the main contract at 1080 cents. After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the CBOT soybean futures contract pulled back significantly [6]. 1.2 Market Analysis - **International Situation**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, a partial framework agreement was reached, and subsequent additional tariffs were cancelled. Regarding US soybean purchases, Trump said that China would start purchasing, but China has not made a clear response. The agreement does not specify the amount of US soybean imports, and it is more likely to be a spontaneous market purchase after comparing with Brazilian soybeans, which is weaker than expected [6]. - **South American Situation**: In South America, the new - season soybeans in Brazil are being sown normally and orderly, with the progress faster than last year and few topics [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean meal rebounded significantly today. Previously, it was weak due to the expectation of US soybean imports. Since the agreement was less than expected, it rebounded. If it is only a spontaneous market purchase behavior in the future, the support below soybean meal is still obvious. Pay attention to the clear conclusion of future tariffs [6]. 2. Industry News - **US Crop Harvest Progress**: As of Sunday, the US soybean harvest is expected to be 84% complete, and the corn harvest is 72% complete. Analysts' forecasts for the US harvest progress range from 80% - 88% for soybeans and 67% - 80% for corn. Last year, the soybean harvest progress was 89%, and the corn harvest progress was 81% [9]. - **Brazilian Soybean and Soybean Meal Exports**: Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's forecast of 7.34 million tons. Brazilian soybean meal exports in October are expected to reach 2.08 million tons, down from 2.09 million tons the previous week [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the M01 contract, the spread between M1 - 5, the spread between M5 - 9, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][20][21]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250929
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 04:21
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - **Contract performance**: - For the "Doupo 2601" contract, the previous settlement price was 2961, opening at 2972, with a high of 2973, a low of 2930, and closing at 2937, down 24 or -0.81%, with a trading volume of 1050116 and an open interest of 1986148, an increase of 48684 [6]. - The "Doupo 2509" contract had a previous settlement of 2870, opened at 2877, high of 2877, low of 2855, and closed at 2858, down 12 or -0.42%, with a volume of 6058 and an open - interest of 43565, an increase of 343 [6]. - The "Doupo 2511" contract had a previous settlement of 2934, opened at 2942, high of 2946, low of 2898, and closed at 2905, down 29 or -0.99%, with a volume of 86345 and an open - interest of 454900, a decrease of 24736 [6]. - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market oscillated, with the main contract at 1010 cents [6]. - **Policy change**: The Argentine government announced on Monday to suspend export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. The previous export tariff for Argentine soybeans was 26%, and for soybean oil and soybean meal was 24.5%. After reducing the tariff to 0, the CIF price of Argentine soybeans to China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US without considering tariffs [6]. - **Supply analysis**: Some domestic oil mills have started to actively purchase Argentine soybeans, and there have been successive orders for Argentine soybean meal since mid - to - late August. The procurement volume for September and October is sufficient, indicating overall supply security until the end of November. The potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentine soybean procurement. Argentina and Brazil's remaining soybeans can make up for the approximately 1200 million tons of US soybeans purchased during the November - January shipping period last year. However, two points need attention: the Argentine export tariff reduction policy lasts until October 31, and the 12 - 1 January shipping period may rely on Brazilian soybeans; also, the Sino - US negotiation situation [6]. - **Price trend**: The previous logic of soybean shortage has loosened. With frequent consultations between China and the US and high inventory in reality, prices have dropped significantly. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential positive factors and the technical indicators are weak. It is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. Some potential positives, such as the expected reduction of US soybean yield per unit and dry weather in Brazil, are unlikely to be reflected in the market in the short term. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level after a rapid decline before the holiday [6]. Group 3: Industry News - **USDA quarterly inventory report**: Analysts' average estimate of US soybean inventory on September 1 is 323 million bushels, with an estimated range of 295 - 360 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year. The USDA on September 12 reported an estimated year - end inventory of 330 million bushels for the 2024/2025 US soybean season. Analysts expect the report to show that the 2024 US soybean production will be revised to 4366 million bushels, with an estimated range of 4350 - 4391 million bushels [7][8]. - **USDA export sales report**: As of the week ending September 18, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 724,500 tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in current - market - year US soybean export sales was 724,500 tons, and the market expected a net increase of 600,000 - 1,600,000 tons. The net increase in next - year's US soybean export sales was 0 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 512,400 tons. The new sales of current - market - year US soybeans were 727,600 tons, and the new sales of next - market - year soybeans were 0 tons [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report mentions multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the "Doupo 01" contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Center of CCB Futures [14][16][13]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250926
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:29
Report Summary - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The previous logic of soybean shortage has loosened due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on soybeans and their by - products, and some domestic oil mills have started to actively purchase Argentine soybeans, shaking the shortage logic for the fourth quarter. With sufficient purchases for September and October, the supply until the end of November is generally worry - free. However, the potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentine soybean purchases, Argentine policy continuity, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. - The market is currently affected by Argentina's policy change and high inventory, leading to a significant price decline. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential bullish factors, and the technical trend is weak. The market is expected to experience low - level fluctuations after a rapid decline [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Contract Performance**: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 2922, the opening price was 2958, the highest price was 2976, the lowest price was 2951, the closing price was 2967, with a rise of 45 and a gain of 1.54%. The trading volume was 1,262,657, the open interest was 1,937,464, and the open interest decreased by 97,619. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 2851, the opening price was 2858, the highest price was 2875, the lowest price was 2858, the closing price was 2870, with a rise of 19 and a gain of 0.67%. The trading volume was 13,790, the open interest was 43,222, and the open interest increased by 4,295. - For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 2895, the opening price was 2929, the highest price was 2950, the lowest price was 2922, the closing price was 2940, with a rise of 45 and a gain of 1.55%. The trading volume was 75,971, the open interest was 479,636, and the open interest decreased by 17,194 [6]. - **External Market and Policy Impact**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract at 1015 cents. Argentina suspended export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. After the tax reduction, the CIF price of Argentine soybeans in China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US. Some domestic oil mills have started to purchase Argentine soybeans, and there have been orders for Argentine soybean meal since mid - to - late August [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Argentina's government announced on Monday that it would suspend export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal until October 31 or until the total export volume reaches 7 billion dollars. Previously, the export tax on Argentine soybeans was 26%, and that on soybean oil and soybean meal was 24.5% [6][7]. - Since Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans and grain by - products this week, Chinese buyers have purchased about 20 ships (about 1.3 million tons) of Argentine soybeans, an increase from the previously reported 10 - 15 ships. In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Among them, the year - on - year growth rates of formula feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed were 3.4%, 8.3%, and 7.9% respectively [18]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 contracts, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the Soybean Meal 01 contract. The data sources are Wind and the Research Center of CCB Futures [11][13][14]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:47
Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The logic of soybean shortage after the fourth quarter has been shaken due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on soybeans and its by - products, and some domestic oil mills have started to purchase Argentine soybeans, with orders for Argentine soybean meal starting in mid - to late August. The supply from September to November is sufficient, and the potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentina's soybean procurement and policy continuity, as well as the progress of Sino - US negotiations [6]. - With the loosening of the previous soybean shortage logic, frequent consultations between China and the US, and high inventory in reality, soybean meal prices have dropped significantly. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential positive factors and the technical indicators are weak. It is advisable to reduce positions to avoid risks. Potential positive factors such as the expected decline in US soybean yield and dry weather in Brazil are unlikely to be reflected in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level after a rapid decline [6]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Soybean meal futures contracts**: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all declined. The decline rates of 2601, 2509, and 2511 were - 3.37%, - 1.73%, and - 3.66% respectively. The trading volume of 2601 was 2372830, and the trading volume of 2511 was 167642 [6]. - **External market**: The US soybean futures contracts declined, with the main contract at 1020 cents. Argentina suspended export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal, reducing the previous 26% soybean export tax and 24.5% soybean oil and soybean meal export taxes to 0. After the tax reduction, Argentina's soybean CIF price to China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US [6]. 2. Industry News - On Monday, the Argentine government announced the suspension of export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. The measure will last until October 31 or until the total export volume reaches $7 billion [7]. 3. Data Overview - **USDA crop growth report**: As of the week of September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and the previous week was 63%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the market expectation of 12%. The defoliation rate was 61% [15]. - **Rosario Grain Exchange**: Argentina's grain and by - product exports in the 2025/26 season may reach a record 105.1 million tons, with grain and oilseed shipments expected to be 64.7 million tons (62% being corn), and oil and oilmeal exports estimated at 40.4 million tons, mostly from soybeans [15].
建信期货豆粕日报-20250922
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:00
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 22, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: For September 22, 2025, the main domestic soybean meal futures contracts showed varying trends. The closing prices of contracts 2601, 2509, and 2511 were 3014, 2899, and 2985 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.43%, 0.35%, and 0.57%. The trading volumes were 895,606, 5,531, and 63,022 respectively, and the open interest changes were -50,756, 1,848, and -3,744 respectively [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The weather for the new - season US soybeans continued to deteriorate, with the latest good - to - excellent rate dropping to 63%, lower than the same period last year, and the drought - affected area rising from 22% a week ago to 33%. The current weather pattern is similar to last year, and there may be adjustments to the yield per unit in the October report [6]. - **Market Focus**: The market focused on the Sino - US economic and trade relations negotiation. From the 14th - 17th, Sino - US representatives held talks in Spain, reaching a general framework agreement on the TikTok incident. However, no further news was reported later in the week. In Brazil, there was sporadic rainfall this week, and the sowing time of new - season soybeans may still be delayed [6]. Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the CBOT price lacks drivers and maintains a narrow - range fluctuation. Externally, attention should be paid to weather and economic and trade negotiations. Domestic soybean meal has been significantly weaker than the external market this week. Due to the slightly bearish USDA report in September and the relatively smooth Sino - US negotiations, the market's long - position risk - aversion sentiment is strong. It is recommended that investors reduce their positions to avoid risks before the National Day. Under the assumption of unchanged tariffs, the long - position window may be in the fourth quarter [6]. Group 3: Industry News - USDA: In September, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season was 4.301 billion bushels, the expected ending stocks were 300 million bushels, and the expected yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, all slightly higher than market expectations [7]. - USDA Crop Growth Report: As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, and the defoliation rate was 41% [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - There are multiple data charts including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][13]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:51
Report Overview - Report Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is weak due to strong market risk - aversion sentiment and near - end spot pressure. Although the USDA's September monthly supply - demand report is slightly bearish, the market reaction is limited. With the relative stability of CBOT soybeans, the domestic soybean meal market is affected by external news. In the short term, it may have difficulty rebounding due to poor technical performance, but considering the complexity of Sino - US negotiations, the price cannot be expected to drop significantly. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Under the assumption of unchanged tariffs, the time window for long positions may be in the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: The prices of domestic soybean meal contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 declined. The main contract of US soybean futures on the outer market oscillated at 1045 cents. The USDA's September report slightly adjusted the planting area, yield per unit, and demand of soybeans, with a final ending inventory of 300 million bushels, slightly higher than the previous 290 million bushels, showing a slight bearish signal [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic soybean meal market is weak because of strong risk - aversion sentiment and spot pressure. The news of Trump's potential visit to China and a possible purchase agreement of US goods has led to early risk - aversion by market bulls. There is currently a relative lack of positive news, and the market is easily influenced by external news. The short - term technical performance is poor, but considering the complexity of Sino - US negotiations, the price will not drop significantly. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the long - position time window may be in the fourth quarter [6]. 3.2 Industry News - USDA: The expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season in September is 4.301 billion bushels, higher than the market expectation of 4.271 billion bushels. The expected ending inventory is 300 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 288 million bushels. The expected yield per unit is 53.5 bushels per acre, higher than the market expectation of 53.3 bushels per acre. - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the same as the market expectation; the harvest rate was 5%, the same as the market expectation; and the defoliation rate was 41% [9][10]. - Abiove: The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2024/25 season remains at 170.3 million tons. The estimated soybean export volume in 2025 remains at 109.5 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume in 2025 is adjusted up to 58.5 million tons. The estimated soybean meal production in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 45.1 million tons, and the estimated export volume remains at 23.6 million tons. The estimated soybean oil production in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 11.7 million tons, and the estimated export volume remains at 1.35 million tons [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][12][18]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250908
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:46
Industry Information - The industry under research is the soybean meal industry [1] - The report date is September 8, 2025 [2] - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Market Review - **Contract Performance**: The settlement prices, opening prices, highs, lows, closing prices, changes, change percentages, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of contracts such as soybean meal 2601, 2609, and 2611 are presented. For example, the soybean meal 2601 contract had a previous settlement price of 3063, an opening price of 3043, a high of 3072, a low of 3042, a closing price of 3067, a change of 4, and a change percentage of 0.13%. Its trading volume was 767,878, and the open interest was 1,996,647 with a decrease of 46,634 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1030 cents. The external environment has stabilized this week, with limited fundamental information interference. The weather conditions for the new US soybean crop have worsened, showing dry conditions in mid - to late August. The current weather pattern is similar to last year's, where the early growth period had good weather, and the USDA adjusted the yield per unit area to a high level in August. However, the weather turned dry starting in August. There is a possibility that the final excellent - good rate this year may be significantly lower than the August forecast, but the September report is less likely to change, and more adjustments to the yield per unit area can be expected in the October report [6] - **Market Focus**: The recent unfavorable weather has not brought significant bullish sentiment to CBOT soybeans. Instead, the market is mainly focused on the pessimistic outlook for new - season exports. As the US soybean harvest approaches, China has not started purchasing US soybeans, increasing the pressure on US soybeans. Although China may stop purchasing US soybeans, due to the significant reduction in planting area and the expected decrease in yield per unit area, the pressure on ending stocks is not as great as last year. Overall, the CBOT price remains in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with the possibility of being weak first and then strong in the medium term [6] - **Domestic Situation**: China's soybean meal market is in a fundamental situation of wide current supply and tight future expectations. In the medium term, with a 23% tariff on imported US soybeans remaining unchanged, China will mainly import Brazilian soybeans in the fourth quarter to replace US soybeans, supplemented by some Argentine soybeans. However, there may still be a small import gap, which may be filled by state - reserve auctions. Due to recent state - reserve soybean auctions and the weakening of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal lacks upward momentum. However, the problem of low imported soybean volume may gradually emerge in the fourth quarter after the National Day. Weather issues also need to be monitored in the October USDA report. After short - term oscillations, the medium - term outlook for soybean meal is bullish after corrections [6] Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report**: As of the week ending August 31, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, down from 69% the previous week, and the same as the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 94%, up from 89% the previous week, higher than 93% in the same period last year, and in line with the five - year average. The defoliation rate was 11%, up from 4% the previous week, slightly lower than 12% in the same period last year, and slightly higher than the five - year average of 10% [7] - **USDA Export Inspection Report**: As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, meeting expectations. The previous market forecast was between 200,000 - 500,000 tons, and the revised figure from the previous week was 393,189 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 29, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 502,934 tons. Since the beginning of this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume has reached 49,763,188 tons, compared with 44,717,223 tons in the same period last year [15] - **USDA Monthly Crushing**: The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 6.14 million short tons (204.7 million bushels), up from 5.91 million short tons (197 million bushels) in June and 5.8 million short tons (193 million bushels) in July 2024 [15]