Group 1: General Information - The report focuses on the soybean meal industry [1] - The report date is March 11, 2026 [2] - The research team members are Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review Contract Quotes - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 3006, the opening price was 2987, the highest price was 3004, the lowest price was 2922, the closing price was 2973, with a decline of 33 and a decline rate of -1.10%. The trading volume was 1,570,739, the open interest was 1,887,486, and the change in open interest was -47,932 [6] - For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2934, the opening price was 2912, the highest price was 2914, the lowest price was 2851, the closing price was 2884, with a decline of 50 and a decline rate of -1.70%. The trading volume was 102,710, the open interest was 528,101, and the change in open interest was 460 [6] - For the soybean meal 2609 contract, the previous settlement price was 3083, the opening price was 3050, the highest price was 3058, the lowest price was 2994, the closing price was 3022, with a decline of 61 and a decline rate of -1.98%. The trading volume was 384,313, the open interest was 930,973, and the change in open interest was 30,341 [6] External Market and Influencing Factors - The US soybean futures contract in the external market declined, with the main contract approaching 1190 cents. There were few changes in the external market's news. In South America, Brazil's harvest progress was slightly slow, and there were reports of congestion and delays at some ports, which was relatively bullish. In Argentina, there was sufficient rainfall during the holiday, and the soybean - producing areas still had rainfall in the past week, so the overall reduction in production might not be large [6] - The focus of the market was in the Middle East. After Israel and the US launched a war against Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the continuation of the war led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical product prices, which affected soybean prices through three paths: cost increase of fertilizers, increase in freight rates, and rising inflation expectations. Although the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America remained unchanged, due to the unexpected development of macro - events and the difficult - to - falsify easing of Sino - US trade frictions under the expectation of Trump's visit to China, the CBOT soybean price might be supported, and future attention should be paid to when the strait could be unsealed [6] Group 3: Industry News - The USDA Annual Outlook Forum predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with analysts' expectations. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year would reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total demand was expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels, including an increase of 125 million bushels in exports to 1.7 billion bushels and an increase of 85 million bushels in crushing to 2.655 billion bushels. The ending inventory would remain basically flat at 355 million bushels. The chief economist of the US Department of Agriculture warned that the production cost was expected to remain high, which would continue to squeeze the planting profit margin [7] - US President Trump would visit China from March 31 to April 2, 2026, for a meeting with China's top leaders. This would be the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since their meeting in South Korea in October last year, when they reached a trade truce agreement [15] - According to BAGE, as of the week of February 18, rainfall in the central and northern agricultural areas of Argentina, although unevenly distributed and of varying intensities, significantly improved the moisture conditions of soybean crops. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops were rated normal to good, higher than 68% a week ago and 68% in the same period last year; 66% of the planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions, higher than 56% a week ago and 70% in the same period last year. The proportion of poorly rated soybeans was 25%, down from 32% a week ago and 32% in the same period last year [15]

Group 1: General Information - The report is about the soybean meal industry, dated March 10, 2026 [1][2] - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - The current prices of different soybean meal contracts are as follows: for the 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3052, the opening price, highest price, and closing price were all 3148, with a rise of 96 and a rise rate of 3.15%, and the trading volume was 672939, and the open interest was 50; for the 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2893, the opening price was 2925, the highest price was 3066, the lowest price was 2919, the closing price was 2995, with a rise of 102 and a rise rate of 3.53%, the trading volume was 2567487, the open interest was 1935418, and the change in open interest was -154205; for the 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2839, the opening price was 2852, the highest price was 3009, the lowest price was 2852, the closing price was 2904, with a rise of 65 and a rise rate of 2.29%, the trading volume was 242428, the open interest was 527641, and the change in open interest was -1745 [6] - The US soybean futures contracts in the outer market are running strongly, with the main contract approaching 1220 cents. In South America, Brazil's harvest progress is slightly slow and there are reports of congestion and delays at some ports, which is relatively bullish; in Argentina, the rainfall during the holiday was acceptable, and there was still rainfall in the soybean - producing areas in the past week, so the overall reduction in production may not be large [6] - The focus of the market is in the Middle East. After Israel and the US launched a war against Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the continuation of the war have affected soybean prices through three paths: an increase in fertilizer prices, an increase in shipping costs, and an increase in inflation expectations. Although the South American harvest is expected to be good, due to unexpected macro - events and the difficult - to - falsify easing of Sino - US trade frictions under the expectation of Trump's visit to China, the CBOT soybean may continue to run strongly, and future attention should be paid to when the strait can be unsealed [6] Group 3: Industry News - According to the USDA Annual Outlook Forum, the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with analysts' expectations. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total demand is expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels, including an increase of 125 million bushels in exports to 1.7 billion bushels and an increase of 85 million bushels in crushing to 2.655 billion bushels. The ending inventory will remain basically flat at 355 million bushels [7] - The chief economist warns that the production cost is expected to remain high, which will continue to squeeze the planting profit margin [8] - US President Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2, which will be the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since their meeting in South Korea last October, when they reached a trade truce agreement [15] - As of the week of February 18, in Argentina, the rainfall in the central and northern agricultural areas significantly improved the moisture conditions of soybean crops. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, higher than 68% a week ago and 68% in the same period last year; 66% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, higher than 56% a week ago and 70% in the same period last year; the proportion of poor - rated soybeans is 25%, down from 32% a week ago and 32% in the same period last year [15] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [12][14][17]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the outer - market US soybean futures contract declined, with the main contract approaching 1050 cents. Yesterday, the USDA released a bearish January supply - demand report. The 2025 US soybean yield remained at a high of 53 bushels, and the overall production changed little. Although the crushing demand continued to improve, the export was poor, especially other countries outside China preferred to buy Brazilian soybeans. The new - season ending stocks increased from 290 million bushels in December to 350 million bushels, higher than last year's 325 million bushels. Brazil's production estimate increased slightly due to good weather. After the report, the potential bullish expectation was shattered, and the previous strong support at 1050 cents may weaken, possibly testing the 1000 - cent support in the future [6]. - Domestic soybean meal was differentiated. The 03 contract was stronger than the 05 contract because of the logic of soybean shortage at the end of the first quarter. Today, over 1 million tons of imported soybeans were auctioned and all were sold, indicating potential spot tightness at the end of March. The 03 contract may not remain strong if there are continuous auctions of over 1 million tons. The 05 contract, mainly corresponding to Brazilian soybeans, has no current bullish factors and should be treated as bearish after rebounds [6]. Operation Suggestions - Continuously monitor the situation of imported soybean auctions. If there are continuous auctions of over 1 million tons, the 03 contract may not maintain its strength. The 05 contract should be treated as bearish after rebounds [6]. Market Data | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3124 | 3124 | 3310 | 3124 | 3154 | 30 | 0.96% | 1101456 | -74 | | | Soybean Meal 2603 | 3095 | 3119 | 3138 | 3091 | 3117 | 22 | 0.71% | 205862 | 551279 | -15977 | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 2786 | 2799 | 2805 | 2756 | 2761 | -25 | -0.90% | 1180639 | 2258105 | -34267 | [6] Group 3: Industry News - The USDA report raised the 2025/2026 US soybean area to 81.2 million acres (previously 81.1 million), production to 4.262 billion bushels (previously 4.253 billion), exports to 1.575 billion bushels (previously 1.635 billion), and ending stocks to 350 million bushels (previously 290 million). Brazil's soybean production was raised to 178 million tons (previously 175 million), and exports to 114 million tons (previously 112.5 million). Global soybean production increased to 425.68 million tons (previously 422.54 million), and ending stocks to 124.41 million tons (previously 122.37 million). China's soybean imports remained unchanged at 112 million tons [8]. - AgRural reported that the 2025/2026 Brazilian soybean harvest had started. As of January 8, 0.6% of the harvest was completed, slightly higher than last year's 0.3%. The agency expected the annual Brazilian soybean production to reach a record 6.51 billion bushels. The harvest start was slightly later than expected due to the extended growth cycle in some areas, but there was no obvious delay in the progress [8]. - On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1,139,605.33 tons of soybeans from 2022 - 2025, located in Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi. All were sold at an average price of 3809.55 yuan/ton, with delivery dates from January 15 to April 30, 2026 [9]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: December 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 3. Core View - Short - term, after a short - term rally, the soybean meal market may be slightly weak, but a significant decline is unlikely [6] 4. Summary by Sections 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market data**: For contract "doupo2601", the previous settlement price was 3009, the opening price was 3000, the highest price was 3051, the lowest price was 2994, the closing price was 3044, the increase was 35, the increase rate was 1.16%, the trading volume was 528804, the open interest was 722842, and the change in open interest was - 28136; for "doupo2603", the corresponding data were 2955, 2940, 3003, 2932, 2987, 32, 1.08%, 219356, 584669, and 41240; for "doupo2605", they were 2771, 2755, 2761, 2736, 2754, - 17, - 0.61%, 1083237, 1933888, and 14351 [6] - **External market**: The US soybean futures contract declined, with the main contract falling close to 1080 cents. The USDA's December monthly supply - demand report had few highlights, and estimates such as US soybean yield, exports, ending stocks, and South American production remained the same as in November. The US market is worried about China's procurement progress, and there are rumors that China's procurement of 12 million tons of US soybeans before January may be postponed to February. Argentina plans to cut soybean export taxes. South American new crops have no positive news, with favorable rainfall in Brazil and dry conditions in Argentina, but it's not the critical growth stage yet. The external market may face some pressure, but the neutral ending stocks limit the decline [6] - **Domestic market**: The domestic market showed a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. There are rumors that the soybean clearance process may be delayed, potentially affecting supply, but considering the high inventory of soybean meal and the relatively high quantity of port soybeans, the short - term rally is not expected to be sustainable. The state reserve is auctioning imported soybeans, ensuring sufficient supply [6] 4.2 Industry News - The USDA's December oilseed report shows that the US 2025/2026 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 290 million bushels, unchanged from November. Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 48.5 million tons (market expectation: 48.57 million tons), and Brazil's is expected to be 175 million tons (market expectation: 175.35 million tons). The global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 1.2237 billion tons, up from 1.2199 billion tons in November [7][9] - Farmers participating in the US crop subsidy program reported the areas of crops that could not be planted before December 1. The non - plantable areas of corn, soybeans, and wheat were 1.839 million acres, 1.268 million acres, and 284,000 acres respectively. The planted areas (including failed sowing areas) reported by producers participating in the December 1, 2025 subsidy program were 97.244 million mu of corn, 80.303 million mu of soybeans, and 48.886 million mu of wheat [9] 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [10][12][18]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Contract details**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3043, the highest price was 3055, the lowest price was 3025, the closing price was 3030, with a decline of 5 and a decline rate of -0.16%. The trading volume was 609,632, the open interest was 840,915, and the open interest change was -78,817. For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3010, the opening price was 3011, the highest price was 3022, the lowest price was 2971, the closing price was 2978, with a decline of 32 and a decline rate of -1.06%. The trading volume was 166,459, the open interest was 553,792, and the open interest change was -8,090. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2828, the opening price was 2821, the highest price was 2826, the lowest price was 2770, the closing price was 2778, with a decline of 50 and a decline rate of -1.77%. The trading volume was 1,089,811, the open interest was 1,890,767, and the open interest change was 107,247 [6] - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract falling below 1100 cents. The main reasons were the US concerns about China's procurement progress. Although there was a large - order purchase of 460,000 tons over the weekend, it was reported that the previous claim of China's full - scale purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans before January might be postponed to February. Meanwhile, February is the season when Brazilian soybeans start to be exported, leading to a negative market sentiment. Additionally, there were no positive factors in the new South American crops. Brazil had basically completed most of its sowing, and above - average rainfall was expected in the central and southern regions in the next two weeks, which was conducive to a high - yield expectation. Argentina was a bit dry, but it was still in the middle - late sowing stage and not yet in the critical weather - growth stage, exerting some downward pressure on the market [7] - **Domestic situation**: Domestic soybean meal followed the weak trend of CBOT soybeans but with a smaller decline. Due to the previously low overall crushing profit and the difficulty of significant cost reduction in the external market while China was still purchasing, the support below the soybean meal price was relatively strong. However, there was still inventory pressure, and additional positive factors such as weather or procurement were needed for the price to rise. The state reserve began to auction imported soybeans, and it was expected that the newly purchased US soybeans would be used for inventory rotation, so the sufficient supply situation would continue [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, the price will be slightly weak but is unlikely to decline significantly. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA's December supply - demand report on the market [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA monthly report forecast**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release the December crop supply - demand report at 1:00 on December 10, Beijing time. Analysts' average forecast shows that the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 302 million bushels, higher than the 290 million bushels estimated in the November 14 report. The global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 122.41 million tons, higher than the 121.99 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.857 million tons, higher than the 4.85 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 175.35 million tons, higher than the 175 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. The USDA predicts that farmers will plant 95 million acres of corn in the 2026/27 season, less than the 98.7 million acres in the 2025/26 season. The soybean planting area is expected to increase from 81.1 million acres to 85 million acres. The USDA forecasts that the US 2026/27 corn ending stocks will be 2.019 billion bushels and the soybean ending stocks will be 314 million bushels [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][19][16]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 1.1 Market Review - **Domestic Soybean Meal Futures**: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts (2601, 2603, 2605) declined. For example, the closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3022, down 35 points or 1.14% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 969,051, and the open interest decreased by 48,610 to 1,597,855 [6]. - **US Soybean Futures**: The US soybean futures contracts were weak, with the main contract at 1140 cents. The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report adjusted the production and crushing of the previous year. The ending stocks for the 24/25 season decreased from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the 25/26 season, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was further reduced by 0.5 bushels to 1.635 billion bushels [6]. 1.2 Operation Suggestions - Monitor the data of China's imports of US soybeans. If the data improves, soybean meal may regain an upward trend; if it remains sluggish, it may return to the previous range - bound state [6]. 2. Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report**: As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [9]. - **USDA Private Exporter Report**: On November 18, private exporters reported the sale of 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - **Abiove Forecast**: The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) forecast that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 177.7 million tons (previously estimated at 178.5 million tons), higher than the previous year's 172.1 million tons. The soybean crushing volume is expected to be 60.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than the previous year's 58.5 million tons. The export volume in 2026 is expected to reach 111 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than the 2025 level of 109 million tons [10]. 3. Data Overview The report includes figures such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][14][15]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - **Contract performance**: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3081, the opening price was 3090, the highest price was 3107, the lowest price was 3024, the closing price was 3043, with a decline of 38 and a drop - rate of 1.23%. The trading volume was 1396215, the open interest was 1661229, and the open interest change was - 38917 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3031, the opening price was 3039, the highest price was 3050, the lowest price was 2980, the closing price was 3003, with a decline of 28 and a drop - rate of 0.92%. The trading volume was 114304, the open interest was 479925, and the open interest change was 14832 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2841, the opening price was 2850, the highest price was 2858, the lowest price was 2795, the closing price was 2814, with a decline of 27 and a drop - rate of 0.95%. The trading volume was 396874, the open interest was 1147563, and the open interest change was 35521 [6]. - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract at 1125 cents. The USDA released the November monthly supply - demand report early on Saturday, which adjusted the production and crushing of the previous year. The ending inventory for the 24/25 season decreased from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the 25/26 season, the yield per acre was adjusted down from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export volume was further adjusted down by 50 million bushels to 1.635 billion bushels [6]. - **Market impact**: The ending inventory of 290 million bushels given in this report is lower than the 300 million bushels in September but higher than market expectations. The export signal is not positive, so CBOT soybeans may have a short - term adjustment. Domestic soybean meal was weak today due to the decline in the external market. The future trend depends on China's import data of US soybeans [6]. Group 3: Industry News - **US 2025/26 soybean data**: The expected yield per acre in November was 53 bushels/acre, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 bushels/acre compared to September; the expected production was 4.253 billion bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 48 million bushels; the expected crushing volume was 2.555 billion bushels, the same as in September; the expected export volume was 1.635 billion bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 50 million bushels; the expected ending inventory was 290 million bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 10 million bushels [7][8]. - **Global 2025/26 soybean meal data**: The expected production was 286.418 million tons, a downward revision of 1.32 million tons; the expected ending inventory was 18.271 million tons, an upward revision of 117,000 tons; the expected export volume was 81.548 million tons, a downward revision of 620,000 tons. Argentina's expected export volume was 29 million tons, a downward revision of 1.1 million tons; Brazil's expected export volume was 24 million tons, an upward revision of 800,000 tons [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][14][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry - The report focuses on the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The agreement between China and the US on soybean procurement is expected to reduce the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year from oversupply to a tight balance, leaving room for the US CBOT soybeans to rise. The increase in China's import cost of soybeans will drive up the price of soybean meal. In the short term, CBOT soybeans are well - supported, and soybean meal can be treated with a moderately bullish view [6] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2603, and 2511 all declined slightly on the day. The US soybean futures contracts on the external market fell, with the main contract at 1125 cents. If China purchases 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually in the next three years as the US stated, it will have a significant impact on the soybean market [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, CBOT soybeans are well - supported, and soybean meal can be treated with a moderately bullish view. However, the uncertainty lies in the implementation of the policy [6] 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The report was not released in October due to the government shutdown. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 [9] - According to analysts' estimates, as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate reached 91%, and the corn harvest rate reached 83%. It is expected that the US will have a record - high corn harvest this year, and soybeans will also have a good harvest [10]

Report Information - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Quotes - **Domestic Soybean Meal Contracts**: The prices of domestic soybean meal contracts such as M2601, M2603, and M2511 showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the M2601 contract closed at 2994, up 20 points or 0.67% [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market pulled back, with the main contract at 1080 cents. After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the CBOT soybean futures contract pulled back significantly [6]. 1.2 Market Analysis - **International Situation**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, a partial framework agreement was reached, and subsequent additional tariffs were cancelled. Regarding US soybean purchases, Trump said that China would start purchasing, but China has not made a clear response. The agreement does not specify the amount of US soybean imports, and it is more likely to be a spontaneous market purchase after comparing with Brazilian soybeans, which is weaker than expected [6]. - **South American Situation**: In South America, the new - season soybeans in Brazil are being sown normally and orderly, with the progress faster than last year and few topics [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean meal rebounded significantly today. Previously, it was weak due to the expectation of US soybean imports. Since the agreement was less than expected, it rebounded. If it is only a spontaneous market purchase behavior in the future, the support below soybean meal is still obvious. Pay attention to the clear conclusion of future tariffs [6]. 2. Industry News - **US Crop Harvest Progress**: As of Sunday, the US soybean harvest is expected to be 84% complete, and the corn harvest is 72% complete. Analysts' forecasts for the US harvest progress range from 80% - 88% for soybeans and 67% - 80% for corn. Last year, the soybean harvest progress was 89%, and the corn harvest progress was 81% [9]. - **Brazilian Soybean and Soybean Meal Exports**: Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's forecast of 7.34 million tons. Brazilian soybean meal exports in October are expected to reach 2.08 million tons, down from 2.09 million tons the previous week [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the M01 contract, the spread between M1 - 5, the spread between M5 - 9, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][20][21]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - **Contract performance**: - For the "Doupo 2601" contract, the previous settlement price was 2961, opening at 2972, with a high of 2973, a low of 2930, and closing at 2937, down 24 or -0.81%, with a trading volume of 1050116 and an open interest of 1986148, an increase of 48684 [6]. - The "Doupo 2509" contract had a previous settlement of 2870, opened at 2877, high of 2877, low of 2855, and closed at 2858, down 12 or -0.42%, with a volume of 6058 and an open - interest of 43565, an increase of 343 [6]. - The "Doupo 2511" contract had a previous settlement of 2934, opened at 2942, high of 2946, low of 2898, and closed at 2905, down 29 or -0.99%, with a volume of 86345 and an open - interest of 454900, a decrease of 24736 [6]. - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market oscillated, with the main contract at 1010 cents [6]. - **Policy change**: The Argentine government announced on Monday to suspend export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. The previous export tariff for Argentine soybeans was 26%, and for soybean oil and soybean meal was 24.5%. After reducing the tariff to 0, the CIF price of Argentine soybeans to China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US without considering tariffs [6]. - **Supply analysis**: Some domestic oil mills have started to actively purchase Argentine soybeans, and there have been successive orders for Argentine soybean meal since mid - to - late August. The procurement volume for September and October is sufficient, indicating overall supply security until the end of November. The potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentine soybean procurement. Argentina and Brazil's remaining soybeans can make up for the approximately 1200 million tons of US soybeans purchased during the November - January shipping period last year. However, two points need attention: the Argentine export tariff reduction policy lasts until October 31, and the 12 - 1 January shipping period may rely on Brazilian soybeans; also, the Sino - US negotiation situation [6]. - **Price trend**: The previous logic of soybean shortage has loosened. With frequent consultations between China and the US and high inventory in reality, prices have dropped significantly. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential positive factors and the technical indicators are weak. It is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. Some potential positives, such as the expected reduction of US soybean yield per unit and dry weather in Brazil, are unlikely to be reflected in the market in the short term. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level after a rapid decline before the holiday [6]. Group 3: Industry News - **USDA quarterly inventory report**: Analysts' average estimate of US soybean inventory on September 1 is 323 million bushels, with an estimated range of 295 - 360 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year. The USDA on September 12 reported an estimated year - end inventory of 330 million bushels for the 2024/2025 US soybean season. Analysts expect the report to show that the 2024 US soybean production will be revised to 4366 million bushels, with an estimated range of 4350 - 4391 million bushels [7][8]. - **USDA export sales report**: As of the week ending September 18, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 724,500 tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in current - market - year US soybean export sales was 724,500 tons, and the market expected a net increase of 600,000 - 1,600,000 tons. The net increase in next - year's US soybean export sales was 0 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 512,400 tons. The new sales of current - market - year US soybeans were 727,600 tons, and the new sales of next - market - year soybeans were 0 tons [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report mentions multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the "Doupo 01" contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Center of CCB Futures [14][16][13]