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建信期货豆粕日报-20250826
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:46
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 豆粕2601 | 3094 | 3094 | 3125 | 3089 | 3117 | 23 | 0.74% | 944017 | 1994689 | -5426 | | 豆粕2509 | 3050 | 3036 | 307 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20250814
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:09
Report Overview - Report Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August supply - demand balance report is unexpectedly bullish for US soybeans. With a reasonable and stable area estimate, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. The potential for further increases in yield is limited, and the negative impact of weather has mostly been digested. Although there is still room for a decline in US soybean export demand, the extent is expected to be small. It is estimated that the low point of CBOT soybeans may have been reached, and the future trend will be a slight upward - trending oscillation. [6] - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the foreign market. There are multiple bullish factors in the near term. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has restricted imports, and the high tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil is beneficial for soybean meal. The 23% tariff on US soybean imports may last until early November, and China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans. However, Brazilian soybeans cannot fully replace US soybeans in quantity, and the FOB price is rising, so the cost of imported soybeans is likely to increase. In the medium term, soybean meal is expected to remain bullish. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3074, the opening price was 3110, the highest price was 3190, the lowest price was 3090, the closing price was 3163, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.90%. The trading volume was 1,964,008, the open interest was 1,935,807, and the change in open interest was 178,676. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3017, the opening price was 3055, the highest price was 3131, the lowest price was 3038, the closing price was 3106, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.95%. The trading volume was 589,795, the open interest was 644,227, and the change in open interest was - 78,924. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3051, the opening price was 3102, the highest price was 3166, the lowest price was 3071, the closing price was 3138, with an increase of 87 and a rise rate of 2.85%. The trading volume was 189,770, the open interest was 615,306, and the change in open interest was - 14,046. - The US soybean futures contract in the foreign market was strong, with the main contract at 1035 cents. [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the medium - term upward trend of soybean meal and the relatively stable situation of US soybeans, but no specific operation suggestions are provided. 3.2 Industry News - The USDA's August report shows that for the 2025/26 US soybean season, the estimated harvested area is 80.1 million acres (market expectation: 82.561 million acres), the estimated yield per acre is 53.6 bushels (market expectation: 52.9 bushels), the estimated production is 4.292 billion bushels (market expectation: 4.365 billion bushels), and the estimated ending inventory is 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels, market expectation: 349 million bushels). [6][14] - As of August 1, based on reports from US farmers participating in the crop subsidy program, the unplanted area of US soybeans was 1.199 million acres, corn was 1.818 million acres, and wheat was 0.277 million acres. The sown area (including failed sowing) of soybeans was 79.761 million acres, corn was 96.524 million acres, and wheat was 48.671 million acres. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of the 09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD - CNY central parity rate, and USD - Brazilian real exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is provided. [10][11][19]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:56
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under research is soybean meal [1] 2. Report Date - The report was released on August 6, 2025 [2] 3. Research Team - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 4. Core Viewpoint - The domestic and foreign markets are diverging. The increase in the FOB quotation of Brazilian soybean exports has led to a steady increase in import costs. The view that the mid - term center of soybean meal will move up remains unchanged [7] 5. Content Summary by Section 5.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes** - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3050, the opening price was 3052, the highest price was 3089, the lowest price was 3051, the closing price was 3065, with a gain of 15 and a gain rate of 0.49%. The trading volume was 573,708, the open interest was 1,487,930, and the open interest change was 24,470 [6] - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3021, the opening price was 3022, the highest price was 3047, the lowest price was 3016, the closing price was 3023, with a gain of 2 and a gain rate of 0.07%. The trading volume was 881,233, the open interest was 1,275,203, and the open interest change was - 83,385 [6] - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3060, the opening price was 3059, the highest price was 3084, the lowest price was 3053, the closing price was 3061, with a gain of 1 and a gain rate of 0.03%. The trading volume was 119,894, the open interest was 630,336, and the open interest change was 4,891 [6] - **Market Analysis** - The US soybean futures contract in the external market fluctuated weakly, with the main contract at 995 cents. The Sino - US talks had no new additional news, and the previous tariffs were extended for 3 months, which depressed the demand outlook for US soybeans. The growth of the new - season US soybeans was good, with a good - excellent rate of 69% in the latest week, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. Only 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and the soil moisture had some tolerance. The expectation of a bumper harvest was gradually strengthening [7] - Although the US had reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, China, the largest exporter of US soybeans, still maintained a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. It was expected that the export of new - season US soybeans would decline [7] - Domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market, in a state of wide - present and tight - future. The import window for US soybeans was in the fourth quarter. As time approached, there were topics and themes for soybean meal to rise. However, China had started importing Argentine soybean meal, and the export tax rate of Argentine soybeans had recently decreased. Although the cost of imported soybeans in China was expected to rise in the fourth quarter, the room for imagination might be relatively limited [7] 5.2 Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report** - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. The flowering rate was 85%, 76% in the previous week, 85% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 86%. The pod - setting rate was 58%, 41% in the previous week, 57% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 58% [10] - **USDA Export Inspection Report** - As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, higher than expected. The previous market forecast was 250,000 - 460,000 tons, 427,734 tons in the previous week (revised from an initial value of 409,714 tons). The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 1, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 266,883 tons. So far in this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 47,834,010 tons, compared with 43,037,528 tons in the same period of the previous year [10][11] - **Canadian Rapeseed Situation** - As of the week ending July 30, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 67.84%. As of the week ending July 29, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 60.3%. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages. Late - sown rapeseed was in the mid - flowering stage, and the earliest - sown rapeseed had fully set pods [11] 5.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [15][16][18]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:38
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - **Contract performance**: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3045, the opening price was 3040, the highest price was 3041, the lowest price was 3013, the closing price was 3028, with a decline of 17 and a decrease rate of -0.56%. The trading volume was 519,043, the open interest was 1,326,501, and the change in open interest was 45,129 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3001, the opening price was 2989, the highest price was 2992, the lowest price was 2963, the closing price was 2983, with a decline of 18 and a decrease rate of -0.60%. The trading volume was 1,013,822, the open interest was 1,468,086, and the change in open interest was -92,213 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3027, the highest price was 3029, the lowest price was 3000, the closing price was 3018, with a decline of 17 and a decrease rate of -0.56%. The trading volume was 135,772, the open interest was 620,262, and the change in open interest was -4,598 [6]. - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1015 cents. The new - season US soybeans are growing well. Although the excellent - good rate dropped to 68% in the latest week, it is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean - growing areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. The demand also has a certain improvement expectation. The US has reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US. With one week left before the final tariff increase, the market expects that other small countries may also reach agreements to purchase agricultural products from the US, slightly reducing the previous concerns about US soybean exports. Overall, US soybeans may still fluctuate in the bottom range [7]. - **Domestic market situation**: Domestic soybean meal was strong in the early stage and has corrected in recent days. China still maintains a 23% tariff on imported US soybeans, and the import window for US soybeans is in the fourth quarter. As time approaches, the fact that China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans was the main reason for the market's rise in the previous few days. China and the US will hold talks on Monday and Tuesday this week. With the US gradually reaching trade agreements with many countries recently, the market expects that the issue of US soybean import tariffs may be mentioned in the meeting. If the tariffs return to the previous level, combined with the current high soybean meal inventory, the market price may decline. However, this is only an expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the actual outcome of this week's negotiations, with increased short - term price volatility expected [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA crop growth report**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the previous week's rate was 68%, and the same period last year was 67%. The flowering rate of US soybeans was 76%, compared with 62% the previous week, 75% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 76%. The pod - setting rate was 41%, compared with 26% the previous week, 42% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42% [10] - **Argentina's export tax adjustment**: Argentine President Milei announced on Saturday that at the request of the country's agricultural department, the export withholding tax rates for poultry, beef, soybeans and their derivatives, corn, sorghum, and sunflowers will be reduced. The export withholding tax rate for beef and poultry meat will be reduced from 6.75% to 5%, for corn and sorghum from 12% to 9.5%, for sunflower seeds from 7.5% to 5.5%, for soybeans from 33% to 26%, and for soybean by - products from 31% to 24.5% [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal (yuan/ton), the basis of the Soybean Meal 09 contract (yuan/ton), the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 (yuan/ton), the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 (yuan/ton), the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][18]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250724
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:37
Report Overview - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The external market of US soybeans is oscillating, with the main contract at 1030 cents. Due to favorable weather and a slightly bearish July USDA report, CBOT soybeans declined weakly at the beginning of last week, testing the previous low of 1000 cents. Subsequently, positive news emerged, such as the US reaching a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes Indonesia's plan to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, slightly alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. Overall, US soybeans may continue to oscillate in the bottom range. The growth of new - season US soybeans is good, with a surprisingly high excellent - good rate of 70% in the latest week, a 4% increase from the previous week, and only 7% of the planting area affected by drought, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. If China, the largest importer of US soybeans, still cannot purchase due to high tariffs, CBOT soybeans are expected to lack sustained improvement [6]. - Domestic soybean meal continued to be strong this week. On one hand, the risk preference in the commodity market has recovered, and the prices of most industrial products at the bottom have risen, driving the bullish sentiment in the market. On the other hand, the fundamental situation of soybean meal is solid. Although the current spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, considering that China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans for the fourth quarter, the current pressure is insignificant. During the week, CBOT soybeans recovered, the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans increased, and the import cost gradually rose. The far - month soybean meal should generally be treated with a low - buying strategy, with the risk being whether there will be positive news from the Sino - US peace talks, such as a mutual reduction of tariffs without an agreement for China to purchase additional US agricultural products [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3098, the opening price was 3100, the highest price was 3136, the lowest price was 3098, the closing price was 3116, with a rise of 18 and a rise rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 413,570, the open interest was 1,236,007, and the open interest change was 22,460 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3076, the opening price was 3080, the highest price was 3121, the lowest price was 3077, the closing price was 3095, with a rise of 19 and a rise rate of 0.62%. The trading volume was 1,166,151, the open interest was 1,838,499, and the open interest change was - 12,733 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3111, the opening price was 3096, the highest price was 3155, the lowest price was 3096, the closing price was 3133, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.71%. The trading volume was 126,795, the open interest was 623,289, and the open interest change was 1,122 [6]. - **External Market**: The external market of US soybeans is oscillating. Favorable factors include the trade agreement with Indonesia and potential agreements with other small countries, while bearish factors include good weather, a high excellent - good rate of new - season soybeans, and China's non - purchase due to tariffs [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal is strong, driven by market sentiment and its own fundamentals. The far - month contract should be treated with a low - buying strategy, with risks related to Sino - US trade negotiations [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **USDA Pressing Weekly Report**: As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was $2.58 per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average pressing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $257.28 per short ton, equivalent to $5.98 per bushel. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 56.15 cents per pound, equivalent to $6.63 per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.28 per bushel, up from $10.23 per bushel last week [7][9]. - **Anec Forecast**: Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.11 million tons (previously estimated at 12.19 million tons), soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.4 million tons (previously estimated at 2.25 million tons), and corn exports are expected to be 4.14 million tons (previously estimated at 4.6 million tons) [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][14]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250718
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:43
Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Core View - If the weather is normal, the domestic soybean meal market will be treated as slightly bearish in a volatile pattern. If there are changes in the weather, there will be upward potential [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all rose, with increases ranging from 1.36% - 1.71%. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,468,250, and the trading volume of the 2601 contract was 463,074. The external market of US soybean futures contracts was strong, with the main contract at 1020 cents [6] - **External Market Factors**: Last week, the external market was weak. Trump initiated a new round of trade disputes, which worried the market about the impact on US soybean exports. The growth of new - season US soybeans was smooth, with a growth excellent - good rate of 66% as of July 6, and only 9% of the area affected by drought. The 7 - month USDA report had limited impact, and the demand side was still highly variable [6] - **Domestic Market Factors**: Domestic soybean meal was relatively strong compared to the external market last week, with a rebound after bottom - grinding. Nationally, soybean meal was in a inventory - accumulation cycle, with a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, and some oil mills reported full storage. However, downstream buyers were willing to make safety purchases at relatively low spot prices, providing some support. The upward elasticity mainly came from the transmission of CBOT soybean prices and US weather [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending July 10, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 350,000 - 1,000,000 tons, with 200,000 - 600,000 tons in the 2024/25 season and 150,000 - 400,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 23,000 tons [7] 3. Data Overview - **Renewable Fuel Credit Quotas**: In June, the US ethanol (D6) blending credit quota was about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May. The biodiesel (D4) blending credit quota increased from 602 million gallons in the previous month to 629 million gallons in June [9]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250704
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 03:07
Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The USDA area report slightly favors the market as the estimated 2025 US soybean planting area is 83.38 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate. If the harvest area is adjusted down to 82.6 million acres and the yield per unit remains at 52.5 bushels, the new US soybean production is expected to be 4.337 billion bushels, a 0.7% decrease from this year. The ending inventory in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop from 350 million bushels this year to 290 million bushels, reaching a relatively balanced supply - demand state. However, the inventory report shows that the current US soybean inventory has increased year - on - year, with a higher - than - expected increase, making the overall impact of the report neutral [6]. - The market will gradually focus on US soybean weather conditions. Currently, the 66% good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than last year but still at a moderately high level. The weather forecast for the next two weeks indicates that most production areas are expected to receive above - average rainfall, which is beneficial for potential yield [6]. - In the domestic soybean meal market, there are rumors that China has started purchasing Argentine soybean meal, reducing the dependence on US soybeans in the fourth quarter. In terms of futures operations, soybean meal prices continue to be priced according to CBOT soybeans, with short - term sensitivity to weather increasing. Considering the expected increase in the cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, the fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious optimism after corrections [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 2990, the opening price was 2990, the highest price was 3021, the lowest price was 2987, the closing price was 3008, with a gain of 18 and a gain rate of 0.60%. The trading volume was 332,791, the open interest was 1,062,964, and the open interest decreased by 10,344. Similar data are provided for the soybean meal 2509 and 2511 contracts [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts rose, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The USDA area and inventory reports were released at 1 am. The estimated 2025 US soybean planting area is 83.38 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate. Different scenarios of yield per unit will lead to different supply - demand situations [6]. - **Domestic Market**: There are rumors that China has started purchasing Argentine soybean meal, reducing the dependence on US soybeans in the fourth quarter. Futures operations should be based on the price of CBOT soybeans, with short - term sensitivity to weather increasing. The fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious optimism after corrections [6]. 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending June 26, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 30 - 100 tons, with 30 - 70 tons in the 2024/25 season and 0 - 30 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 10 - 65 tons, with 10 - 40 tons in the 2024/25 season and 0 - 25 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean oil export sales are expected to decrease by 10,000 tons to an increase of 26,000 tons [7]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of the week ending June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 23.8259 million tons. They also sold 49,900 tons of 2025/26 season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 264,400 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250702
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 03:52
1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 2.1 Market Quotes - **Domestic soybean meal futures**: For the contracts of soybean meal 2507, 2509, and 2511, the closing prices were 2822, 2961, and 2998 respectively, with changes of -21, +3, and +1, and percentage changes of -0.74%, +0.10%, and +0.03% [6]. - **US soybean futures**: The main contract of US soybean futures on the outer - market fluctuated around 1020 cents [6]. 2.2 USDA Reports - **Area report**: The estimated planting area of US soybeans in 2025 was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate. With an estimated harvest area of 82.6 million acres and a yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, the new - crop US soybean production is expected to be 4.337 billion bushels, a 0.7% decrease from this year's 4.366 billion bushels [6]. - **Inventory report**: The current US soybean inventory increased year - on - year, with the increase exceeding expectations. The combined effect of the area and inventory reports was neutral [6]. 2.3 Impact of Weather on Yields - **Current situation**: The current excellent - good rate of US soybeans is 66%, slightly lower than last year but still at a moderately high level. Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate above - average rainfall in most production areas, which is beneficial for potential yields [6]. - **Yield and inventory scenarios**: If the yield rises to 53.2 bushels per acre, the ending inventory will remain at 350 million bushels; if it drops below 51.9 bushels per acre, the ending inventory is expected to fall below 250 million bushels, tightening the supply - demand balance [6]. 2.4 Domestic Market Situation - There are rumors that China has started purchasing Argentine soybean meal, reducing its dependence on US soybeans in the fourth quarter [6]. 2.5 Operational Suggestions - Soybean meal pricing continues to follow CBOT soybeans. In the short term, it is more sensitive to weather. For fourth - quarter contracts, a cautious and bullish approach is recommended after price corrections, with risks related to weather improvement and tariff policies [6]. 3. Industry News 3.1 USDA Quarterly Inventory and Planting Area Survey Report - As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of old - crop US soybeans was 1.01 billion bushels, a 4% year - on - year increase. Farm inventories were 412 million bushels, a 12% year - on - year decrease, and non - farm inventories were 596 million bushels, an 18% year - on - year increase [7]. - From March to May, soybean consumption was 903 million bushels, a 3% year - on - year increase. The estimated planting area of US soybeans in 2025 was 83.4 million acres, lower than the market expectation of 83.655 million acres and the March planting intention of 83.495 million acres [7]. 3.2 USDA Crop Growth Report - As of the week of June 29, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The emergence rate was 94%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [9]. 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract [11][13][14]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250626
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 01:26
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Domestic soybean meal futures contracts: The settlement prices of soybean meal 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased by -1.05%, -1.19%, and -1.27% respectively, with trading volumes of 26,867, 1,342,168, and 77,065, and open interest changes of -18,048, -59,986, and -4,441 respectively [6] - International soybean market: U.S. soybean futures contracts declined, with the main contract at 1045 cents. After a rebound last week, the price turned to consolidation. The biodiesel policy is relatively positive for U.S. soybean crushing, but there is still uncertainty due to an upcoming hearing in early July. U.S. soybean exports are approaching the end of the season, and the market is entering the weather - sensitive period. New - season soybean planting is progressing, with uneven rainfall distribution in the产区, and the overall good - to - excellent rate is at a medium level [6] Operation Suggestions - Short - term: There may be profit - taking pressure on the rebound. For the fourth - quarter contracts, they should be treated with cautious optimism after pullbacks, with risks related to weather improvement and tariff conditions [6] Group 3: Industry News - Imea: From June 16 - 20, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso was 493.39 reais/ton, down from 515.08 reais/ton the previous week. The soybean meal price was 1561.35 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 5,771.88 reais/ton [9] - Argentina: In May, the soybean crushing volume was 3,878,549 tons, soybean oil production was 763,045 tons, and soybean meal production was 2,821,060 tons. As of June 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in factories was 3,515,610 tons, soybean oil inventory was 223,426 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 647,658 tons [9][10] - EU: As of June 22, the 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.76 million tons (vs. 3.41 million tons last year), soybean imports were 13.79 million tons (vs. 12.89 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 18.88 million tons (vs. 14.93 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 7.16 million tons (vs. 5.59 million tons last year) [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price difference between soybean meal 1 - 5, 5 - 9, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the US dollar against the Brazilian real exchange rate, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]