Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides views on the futures of two agricultural products: soymeal and palm oil. For soymeal, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". For palm oil, both the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", with an "oscillating weakly" intraday view [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is strengthening, and export demand is decreasing, putting short - term pressure on US soybean futures prices. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade, the impact on domestic soybeans is limited, and the divergence between domestic and international soybean futures prices will continue. The domestic market's trading logic has shifted to the weak industrial chain, with continuous accumulation of soymeal inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, causing short - term weakness in soymeal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: As the benchmark of the oil market, when other varieties fluctuate around trade topics, the palm oil industrial chain environment has weakened. Pay attention to the impact of weather - related factors. In the short term, market sentiment drives the market, and palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Recent soybean harvest season in the US is approaching, with favorable weather conditions in the production areas, gradually realizing the expected high - yield, and the global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern. The China - US negotiation is the main focus for the future market. The consumption of palm oil during the two festivals has limited driving force, and the overall price of edible oils will continue to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9384.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.73% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8348.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9801.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9310.00 yuan/ton, a change of +110.00 yuan or +1.20%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 74.00, a change of +42.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8470.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was Y01 + 122.00, a change of +10.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.10%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 99.00, a change of -2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary - As of August 29, 2025 (Week 35), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 61.01 tons, an increase of 2.80 tons or 4.81% compared to the previous week [2] - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high, and it is expected that oil mills will maintain a high operating rate, with the monthly soybean crushing volume around 9.5 million tons [2] - In August, Argentina's agricultural exports dropped by 25% year - on - year, and the total export value of the agricultural sector was 1.82 billion US dollars, a significant decrease of 55% compared to July [2] - Last week, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased again, reaching a high in more than two months. As of the end of Week 35 (August 30), the average operating rate of domestic major soybean oil mills was 67.26%, an increase of 3.23% compared to the previous week's 64.03%. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 2.5148 million tons, an increase of 120,900 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the crushing volume of domestic soybeans was 16,900 tons, and the crushing volume of imported soybeans was 2.4979 million tons. This week, the expected soybean processing volume will remain high at 2.5213 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.44% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Volatile in the short term, with a high probability of stronger performance in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Volatile with an internal-weak and external-strong pattern. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies for hedging, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Volatile, with a short-term rebound and a long-term expectation of price decline due to increased supply [7][8] - **Pigs**: Volatile. The spot and near-term contracts are expected to remain weak, while the far-term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term [9][10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term [11] - **Cotton**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term, with a price range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] - **Sugar**: Volatile and tending to weaken in the long term, with a short-term trading range of 5,550 - 5,750 yuan/ton [13] - **Pulp**: Volatile, with the main contract remaining weak [15] - **Logs**: Volatile and tending to weaken, with the option to buy the far-month 11 contract on dips in the range of 790 - 840 [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The continuous expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US exerts pressure on the oils and fats market, but factors such as increased biodiesel demand and potential reduction in US soybean yield may support the market in the medium term [5] - The rapid decline in soybean import crushing margins has led to a focus on the support at the integer level for soybean meal. The market shows an internal-weak and external-strong pattern [7] - The increase in forward orders has led to a rebound in the corn futures market, but the long-term expectation is for prices to decline due to increased supply [7][8] - The pig market is under inventory pressure, with the spot and near-term contracts remaining weak. The far-term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] - The natural rubber market is in a seasonally rising period, with support from both macro and fundamental factors, and is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen in the short term [9][10] - The synthetic rubber market follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the tight supply of its raw material, butadiene [11] - The cotton market has strong support at the current stage due to low inventory and improved demand, but may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] - The sugar market is under pressure from increased supply, with a long-term expectation of price decline and short-term volatility [13] - The pulp market shows a divergence between the near and far contracts, with the main contract remaining weak [15] - The log market has a marginal improvement in fundamentals but faces pressure from new warehouse receipts and low buyer willingness [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Situation**: US soybean futures were volatile and bearish on Wednesday due to the expectation of a bumper harvest, and domestic oils and fats continued to adjust downward on Thursday, with palm oil being relatively weak [5] - **Macro Environment**: The market is concerned about the impact of US economic data on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. The US dollar rose and then fell on Wednesday, and crude oil prices rose due to a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories [5] - **Industry Analysis**: US soybeans are growing well, and the market is sensitive to weather. The new US biodiesel policy is expected to benefit US soybean oil demand, but the demand has decreased year-on-year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, and soybean oil inventory may peak. Malaysian palm oil is likely to continue to accumulate inventory in August, and the demand for palm oil from Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high year-on-year [5] - **Outlook**: The adjustment pressure on oils and fats remains large in the near term, but there is a high probability of stronger performance in the medium term [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - **Market Data**: On August 28, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 89.69 yuan/ton, with a significant week-on-week decline [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans has recovered, and the weather in the US soybean-producing areas is generally favorable. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has been falling. Domestically, the import crushing margin has declined rapidly, and the state reserve will auction 164,000 tons of imported soybeans on August 29. The supply gap risk before December has significantly decreased, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7] - **Outlook**: The market maintains an internal-weak and external-strong pattern. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies for hedging, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Market Information**: The average price of domestic corn was 2,351 yuan/ton, with a slight decline. The closing price of the main contract was 2,185 yuan/ton, with a 0.97% increase [7] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of old corn is tightening, but the supply of new corn will gradually increase. The demand side has some replenishment needs, and there is a risk of a late rebound. The long-term expectation is for prices to decline due to increased supply [7][8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in the destocking of old corn, and there is an expectation of price decline during the peak period of new corn listing. In the long term, the expectation of tight supply supports the idea of low-price buying [7][8] 3.4 Pigs - **Market Information**: On August 28, the price of live pigs in Henan was 13.64 yuan/kg, with a 0.59% increase. The closing price of the futures contract was 13,590 yuan/ton, with a 1.13% decrease [8] - **Logic Analysis**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the inventory pressure is high. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to guide the industry to eliminate excess capacity, but the implementation needs to be observed [8] - **Outlook**: The market is volatile, with the spot and near-term contracts remaining weak and the far-term contracts supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Situation**: The natural rubber futures market was strong on Thursday, with prices rising [9] - **Logic Analysis**: The natural rubber market is in a seasonally rising period, with various speculative themes. The short-term supply of ships may decrease, and the demand is rigid. The supply increase may be postponed due to heavy rainfall in the producing areas [9][10] - **Outlook**: The macro sentiment is favorable, and the fundamentals are supportive in the short term. The rubber price is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen [9][10] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Situation**: The BR futures market rebounded following the trend of natural rubber [11] - **Logic Analysis**: The synthetic rubber market follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the tight supply of its raw material, butadiene. The supply of butadiene has decreased due to some device maintenance and production reduction, and the demand from the main downstream industries is stable [11] - **Outlook**: The price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly in the short term, and the futures market is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen [11] 3.7 Cotton - **Market Information**: As of August 28, the number of registered warehouse receipts for the 24/25 cotton year was 6,720. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts showed a decline [12] - **Logic Analysis**: The current commercial inventory of cotton is at a relatively low level, and the demand is improving. The expected increase in the purchase price of seed cotton by upstream ginneries will support the futures price. However, the expected increase in production in the new year may put pressure on prices [12] - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen in the short term, with a price range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] 3.8 Sugar - **Market Information**: As of August 28, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts showed a decline [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the new sugar season is expected to have an oversupply situation, with Brazil's sugar production increasing and Thailand and India also expected to have higher yields. Domestically, the import volume of sugar has increased, leading to an increase in supply [13] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the sugar price is expected to decline due to the expected oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile within the range of 5,550 - 5,750 yuan/ton [13] 3.9 Pulp - **Market Information**: The prices of some pulp varieties in Shandong showed a decline [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The pulp futures market showed a divergence between the near and far contracts, with the main contract continuing to decline. The decline is mainly attributed to the delivery pressure of the 09 contract. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, with the broadleaf pulp market showing a marginal improvement [15] - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract remaining weak [15] 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market was weak this week, with the 09 contract adjusting downward [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The fundamentals of the log market have improved marginally, with a reduction in supply pressure and an increase in cost. However, the new warehouse receipts and low buyer willingness may put pressure on the market [16] - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to be volatile and tend to weaken. It is recommended to buy the far-month 11 contract on dips in the range of 790 - 840 [16]

Group 1 - The current price of soybean meal is critical as it approaches the key level of 3000 yuan/ton, raising questions about its stability [2] - There is a divergence between spot and futures markets, with spot prices remaining stable while futures have retreated [2][3] - The retreat in futures prices indicates a change in market expectations for future conditions, influenced by factors such as the return of U.S. soybeans to the Chinese market [3][9] Group 2 - Recent developments suggest urgency from the U.S. side regarding soybean exports to China, highlighted by Trump's social media post and the U.S. Soybean Association's call for action [6][8] - The expectation of a high yield for U.S. soybeans adds pressure for them to re-enter the Chinese market, which could alleviate supply tightness in the fourth quarter [9] - There are rumors of a potential government release of 3 million tons of soybeans, which, regardless of its truth, contributes to market sentiment affecting soybean meal prices [9][11] Group 3 - Despite the recent retreat in prices, the decline is expected to be limited due to cost support and seasonal demand increases in the fourth quarter [11] - The overall trend for soybean meal is anticipated to be a slow upward movement, with a higher likelihood of price increases compared to declines [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - New - season US soybeans are growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, but there are concerns about Sino - US policies. In China, the supply of soybeans is sufficient and the bean meal inventory is rising, but the increase in import costs provides some support to bean meal prices. For corn, the remaining grain in the market is less than last year, but market sentiment is weak and demand is still low [3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3091 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.62%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2653 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton (-2.61%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2260 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.09%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2645 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (+0.11%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] 3. Recent Market Information - US soybean: As of August 10, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71%. The growth is at a high level in the past five years [2] - Ukraine oilseeds: APK - Inform lowered Ukraine's 2025 oilseed production, including an 800,000 - ton reduction in sunflower seed production to 13.8 million tons, a 300,000 - ton reduction in sunflower oil production to 5.9 million tons, a 160,000 - ton reduction in rapeseed production to 3 million tons, and a 400,000 - ton reduction in soybean production to 5.8 million tons [2] - US corn exports: As of August 7, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.492 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16% and a year - on - year increase of 51%. From the 2024/25 season to date, the export inspection volume was 63.127 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, reaching 90.4% of the USDA export target [4] 4. Market Analysis - Bean Meal: New - season US soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest, but Sino - US policies are uncertain. In China, the supply of soybeans is sufficient, the bean meal inventory is rising, but the increase in import costs supports prices [3] - Corn: In China, the remaining grain in the market is less than last year, but market sentiment is weak, and downstream demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The future focus is on the new - season corn yield [5] 5. Strategy - The strategy for both bean meal and corn is cautiously bearish [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [8] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating with a bearish bias [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a bearish bias in the long - term; short - term view is to sell on rebounds [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating widely [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating, with an operating range of 800 - 850 [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. For oils and fats, the MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise. Protein meal shows an internal - strong, external - weak, near - weak, far - strong pattern. Corn and starch markets continue to oscillate weakly. Hog supply and demand remain loose, with prices oscillating narrowly. Natural rubber prices rise due to strong raw material support, and synthetic rubber prices go up due to tight raw materials. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, while sugar prices are under pressure. Pulp presents opportunities for low - buying in the far - month contracts, and log prices oscillate with potential low - buying opportunities [7][8][9][11][12][14][15][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday [7] - **Industry Information**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.07% [7] - **Logic**: The market awaited MPOB and USDA monthly reports. Under the influence of the bullish MPOB report, domestic palm oil led the rise. Macro - environment factors include the focus on US monetary and tariff policies, the decline of the US dollar and crude oil prices. From the industrial side, US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and domestic soybean imports may decline seasonally. Malaysian palm oil production in July was slightly lower than expected, exports were higher, and inventory was lower. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still high [7][2] - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance of rapeseed oil [7][3] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment disturbs, and the price fluctuation intensifies [8] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes for US Gulf soybeans, US West soybeans, and South American soybeans changed week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also changed week - on - week and year - on - year [8] - **Logic**: Internationally, the expectation of a good US soybean harvest is strong. Domestically, in the short term, inventory pressure and expected Argentine soybean meal arrivals restrict the rise of spot prices. In the long term, there may be a supply gap in the fourth quarter, and the cost supports the far - month contracts [8] - **Outlook**: The pattern of internal strength, external weakness, near - term weakness, and long - term strength continues. Spot and basis may adjust, but prices will stabilize and rise. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on volatility [8] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The market continues to oscillate weakly [9] - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, the domestic average corn price is 2384 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2255 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% [9] - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight decline. On the supply side, inventory has been digested, and the arrival of grain at deep - processing enterprises has decreased. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grain is low. Policy - wise, the import corn transaction rate has declined. The new - season corn production is normal [9][10] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking. After the new - crop is on the market, supply pressure will be released, and prices will decline [10] 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices oscillate narrowly [11] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, the price of Henan live hogs (external ternary) was 13.66 yuan/kg, with no change; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [11] - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August will increase. In the medium term, the number of live hogs for slaughter is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. Demand shows narrow fluctuations, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing [11] - **Outlook**: The hog market presents a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Spot prices face pressure, and if capacity reduction policies are implemented, hog prices may turn strong in 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Strong raw material support drives rubber prices to oscillate upwards [12] - **Industry Information**: Prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market changed. From January to July 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and in July, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [12][13] - **Logic**: Yesterday's warm macro - sentiment supported rubber prices. Rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, with many speculative themes. Fundamentally, short - term ship arrivals may decrease, and demand is rigid. Supply may be delayed due to heavy rainfall expectations [13] - **Outlook**: With good macro - sentiment and short - term fundamental support, rubber prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [13] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Tight raw materials support the upward movement of the market [14] - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and domestic butadiene changed [14] - **Logic**: The BR market rose rapidly on Friday night. It was driven by sentiment - based funds from natural rubber and supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, its raw material. Butadiene supply did not increase as expected, and downstream demand was good [14] - **Outlook**: In the short term, butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly, and the market may oscillate with a bullish bias [14] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand [14] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 2024/2025 season was 8172. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 changed [14] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton supply is expected to be loose. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, and if downstream orders increase in August, it may be beneficial [14] - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening [15] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 5573 yuan/ton, with no change [15] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short term, supply pressure will increase seasonally. Attention should be paid to the external market, as some institutions have lowered their forecasts for Brazilian sugar production [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices are expected to decline due to the expected supply surplus. In the short term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds, with the contract expected to operate in the range of 5600 - 5900 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Negative factors have been priced in for a long time. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities in far - month contracts [16] - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong changed [16] - **Logic**: Futures prices rose yesterday, but the spot market was still weak. Supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Overseas markets are also weak. However, the price is at a low level, and negative factors have been fully priced in [16] - **Outlook**: The pulp futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main 11 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5500. For a single - side strategy, pay attention to low - buying opportunities when the 01 contract drops to around 5200 - 5250 [16] 3.10 Logs - **View**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities within the range [18] - **Industry Information**: No new incremental information was provided, and the market returned to fundamental trading [18] - **Logic**: The market oscillated yesterday. The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with an increase in valuation, a reduction in hedging pressure, and a decline in port arrivals. However, there are also negative factors such as low acceptance of price increases by downstream and potential pressure from undigested warehouse receipts [18] - **Outlook**: The market has multiple factors at play. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. It is recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [18][20]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: August 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Soybean Meal Futures**: For the contracts of Soybean Meal 2601, 2509, and 2511, the closing prices were 3094, 3045, and 3081 respectively, with daily increases of 0.85%, 0.83%, and 0.75%. The trading volumes were 609,803, 553,208, and 86,751, and the open interests were 1,650,480, 1,060,946, and 651,771 respectively. The changes in open interests were +49,993, -67,719, and -396 [6]. - **US Soybean Futures**: The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main - contract at 990 cents. The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with a current excellent - good rate of 69%, the best in the same period in the past five years. Only 3% of the US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some tolerance. The weather in the next two weeks is expected to have moderate rainfall, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The demand for US soybeans is relatively weak as China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans due to a 23% tariff [6]. Operational Suggestions - Unless there are significant changes in tariffs, maintain a bullish view on soybean meal in the medium - term. Wait for potential negative impacts from the August USDA report to materialize before making investment decisions [6]. Group 3: Industry News - **USDA Monthly Report Forecast**: Analysts predict that the global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will be 127.42 million tons, the US soybean ending stocks for the 2024/25 season will be 347 million bushels, the US soybean production for the 2025/26 season will be 4.365 billion bushels, the US soybean yield for the 2025/26 season will be 52.9 bushels per acre, and the US soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will be 349 million bushels [7][9]. - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week of August 5, about 3% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% in the same period last year [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the USD/CNY central parity rate, and the USD/BRL exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [7] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [8] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating Bearish [9] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors, and it is likely to operate strongly in the near future under the stabilization of market sentiment [2][3][7]. - The protein meal market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with the far - month contracts expected to strengthen [8]. - The corn/starch market is currently in a weak state, with short - term uncertainties in old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [9][10]. - The live pig market presents a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation", with high inventory pressure in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term [10]. - The natural rubber market rebounds due to some speculative sentiment, and the short - term performance is expected to follow the macro - wide fluctuations [10][12]. - The synthetic rubber market is supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [13]. - The cotton market returns to fundamental trading, with the price expected to oscillate within a certain range [14]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the increasing supply pressure [15]. - The pulp market remains weak, and the strategy is to pay attention to the reverse spread during the decline [16]. - The log market has limited fundamental changes and is mainly treated within a range [17][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as short - covering, US policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production increase, good growth of US soybeans, and the production and inventory situation of palm oil and rapeseed oil [2][7]. - **Outlook**: It is likely to operate strongly in the near future, and attention should be paid to the performance of upper technical resistance [3][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans is 69%, and there are still weather risks. Domestically, the short - term supply is sufficient, and there may be a supply gap in the long - term [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot and basis may oscillate at a low level, and the far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Logic**: The supply side has inventory digestion and import auction issues, and the demand side has low acceptance of high - priced grains. The new crop situation is normal [9][10]. - **Outlook**: There are uncertainties in short - term old crop de - stocking, and there is a downward trend after new crop listing [10]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is strong in the short, medium, and long - term, and the demand is weak. The policy has a guiding effect on capacity reduction [10]. - **Outlook**: The market presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention should be paid to reverse spread strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Driven by some speculative sentiment, the short - term fundamentals have no major contradictions [10][12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term performance follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, the raw material market is in a weak downward trend [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level. The price oscillates within a certain range [14]. - **Outlook**: The single - side oscillates, and the range operation is recommended. The reverse spread of the monthly difference is stopped profit at the stage [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term supply pressure increases [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, and the short - term strategy is to short on rebounds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The supply pressure of hardwood pulp is high, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: The recent fluctuations follow the macro - situation, and it is expected to oscillate widely [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The cost increases, the supply pressure eases, and there are both long and short factors in the market [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and it is mainly operated within the range of 800 - 850 [18].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the U.S. is putting downward pressure on the market, raising concerns about where the last line of defense for bullish investors lies [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The favorable weather conditions are contributing to the increased yield expectations for U.S. soybeans, which is negatively affecting market prices [1] - The market is experiencing significant pressure as the bullish sentiment struggles against the backdrop of anticipated high production levels [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are questioning the sustainability of bullish positions in light of the overwhelming supply forecast [1] - The article suggests that the current market dynamics may force investors to reassess their strategies as the potential for price declines increases [1]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - **Contract performance**: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3045, the opening price was 3040, the highest price was 3041, the lowest price was 3013, the closing price was 3028, with a decline of 17 and a decrease rate of -0.56%. The trading volume was 519,043, the open interest was 1,326,501, and the change in open interest was 45,129 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3001, the opening price was 2989, the highest price was 2992, the lowest price was 2963, the closing price was 2983, with a decline of 18 and a decrease rate of -0.60%. The trading volume was 1,013,822, the open interest was 1,468,086, and the change in open interest was -92,213 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3027, the highest price was 3029, the lowest price was 3000, the closing price was 3018, with a decline of 17 and a decrease rate of -0.56%. The trading volume was 135,772, the open interest was 620,262, and the change in open interest was -4,598 [6]. - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1015 cents. The new - season US soybeans are growing well. Although the excellent - good rate dropped to 68% in the latest week, it is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean - growing areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. The demand also has a certain improvement expectation. The US has reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US. With one week left before the final tariff increase, the market expects that other small countries may also reach agreements to purchase agricultural products from the US, slightly reducing the previous concerns about US soybean exports. Overall, US soybeans may still fluctuate in the bottom range [7]. - **Domestic market situation**: Domestic soybean meal was strong in the early stage and has corrected in recent days. China still maintains a 23% tariff on imported US soybeans, and the import window for US soybeans is in the fourth quarter. As time approaches, the fact that China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans was the main reason for the market's rise in the previous few days. China and the US will hold talks on Monday and Tuesday this week. With the US gradually reaching trade agreements with many countries recently, the market expects that the issue of US soybean import tariffs may be mentioned in the meeting. If the tariffs return to the previous level, combined with the current high soybean meal inventory, the market price may decline. However, this is only an expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the actual outcome of this week's negotiations, with increased short - term price volatility expected [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA crop growth report**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the previous week's rate was 68%, and the same period last year was 67%. The flowering rate of US soybeans was 76%, compared with 62% the previous week, 75% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 76%. The pod - setting rate was 41%, compared with 26% the previous week, 42% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42% [10] - **Argentina's export tax adjustment**: Argentine President Milei announced on Saturday that at the request of the country's agricultural department, the export withholding tax rates for poultry, beef, soybeans and their derivatives, corn, sorghum, and sunflowers will be reduced. The export withholding tax rate for beef and poultry meat will be reduced from 6.75% to 5%, for corn and sorghum from 12% to 9.5%, for sunflower seeds from 7.5% to 5.5%, for soybeans from 33% to 26%, and for soybean by - products from 31% to 24.5% [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal (yuan/ton), the basis of the Soybean Meal 09 contract (yuan/ton), the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 (yuan/ton), the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 (yuan/ton), the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][18]