市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3091元/吨，较前日变动+19元/吨，幅度+0.62%；菜粕2509合约2653元/吨，较前 日变动-71元/吨，幅度-2.61%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-91， 较前日变动-9；江苏地区豆粕现货2920元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-171，较前日变动-19；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2910元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-181，较前日变动-19。福建地区菜粕现货价格2620 元/吨，较前日变动-50元/吨，现货基差RM09-33，较前日变动+21。 菜系价格走强，豆粕宽幅震荡 粕类观点 农产品日报 | 2025-08-13 近期市场资讯，美国农业部作物周报显示，截至8月10日当周，美国大豆优良率68%，符合市场预期，一周前69%， 上年同期68%；大豆开花率91%，一周前85%，上年同期90%，过去五年均值92%；大豆结荚率71%，一周前58%， 上年同期70%，过去五年均值72%。咨询机构APK-Inform周一发布报告，下调乌克兰油籽产量。APK-Infor ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 油脂：MPOB报告利多，昨日棕油领涨油脂 蛋白粕：市场情绪扰动，盘面波动加剧 玉米/淀粉：市场延续弱势震荡 生猪：供需延续宽松，价格窄幅震荡 橡胶：原料支撑较强，胶价震荡上行 合成橡胶：原料偏紧支撑盘面上行 纸浆：利空交易已久，关注远月低吸机会 棉花：低库存支撑棉价，关注需求边际变化 白糖：糖价承压走弱 原木：盘面震荡，关注区间逢低多 【异动品种】 油脂观点：MPOB报告利多，昨⽇棕油领涨油脂 产业信息：（1）MPOB数据，马棕7月产量181.24万吨，环比7.1%，出口量130.91 万吨，环比3.95%，期末库存量211.33万吨，环比4.07%。 逻辑：市场等待MPOB和USDA月度报告，上周五美豆和美豆油下跌，在MPOB报告利 多的影响下，昨日国内棕油领涨三大油脂。从宏观环境看，市场继续关注美国货 币政策和关税政策，上周五美元小幅反弹；而在OPEC+9月大幅增产及对需求担忧 的影响下，上周五原油价格继续下跌，市场等待美俄领导人会晤。从产业端看， 目前美豆长势良好，优良率处于同期较高水平，未来2周美豆产区降水基本正 常，市场对美豆丰产预期较强，美国、巴西生 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 8 月 11 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 每日报告 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 ＃summary＃ 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [7] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [8] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating Bearish [9] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors, and it is likely to operate strongly in the near future under the stabilization of market sentiment [2][3][7]. - The protein meal market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with the far - month contracts expected to strengthen [8]. - The corn/starch market is currently in a weak state, with short - term uncertainties in old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [9][10]. - The live pig market presents a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation", with high inventory pressure in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term [10]. - The natural rubber market rebounds due to some speculative sentiment, and the short - term performance is expected to follow the macro - wide fluctuations [10][12]. - The synthetic rubber market is supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [13]. - The cotton market returns to fundamental trading, with the price expected to oscillate within a certain range [14]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the increasing supply pressure [15]. - The pulp market remains weak, and the strategy is to pay attention to the reverse spread during the decline [16]. - The log market has limited fundamental changes and is mainly treated within a range [17][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as short - covering, US policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production increase, good growth of US soybeans, and the production and inventory situation of palm oil and rapeseed oil [2][7]. - **Outlook**: It is likely to operate strongly in the near future, and attention should be paid to the performance of upper technical resistance [3][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans is 69%, and there are still weather risks. Domestically, the short - term supply is sufficient, and there may be a supply gap in the long - term [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot and basis may oscillate at a low level, and the far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Logic**: The supply side has inventory digestion and import auction issues, and the demand side has low acceptance of high - priced grains. The new crop situation is normal [9][10]. - **Outlook**: There are uncertainties in short - term old crop de - stocking, and there is a downward trend after new crop listing [10]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is strong in the short, medium, and long - term, and the demand is weak. The policy has a guiding effect on capacity reduction [10]. - **Outlook**: The market presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention should be paid to reverse spread strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Driven by some speculative sentiment, the short - term fundamentals have no major contradictions [10][12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term performance follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, the raw material market is in a weak downward trend [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level. The price oscillates within a certain range [14]. - **Outlook**: The single - side oscillates, and the range operation is recommended. The reverse spread of the monthly difference is stopped profit at the stage [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term supply pressure increases [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, and the short - term strategy is to short on rebounds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The supply pressure of hardwood pulp is high, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: The recent fluctuations follow the macro - situation, and it is expected to oscillate widely [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The cost increases, the supply pressure eases, and there are both long and short factors in the market [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and it is mainly operated within the range of 800 - 850 [18].

期货热点追踪 天气太好也是错？美豆丰产预期压垮市场，多头最后的防线在哪？ 相关链接 ...

021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 7 月 30 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 7 月 25 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 豆粕2601 | 3116 | 3117 | 3131 | 3042 | 3059 | -57 | -1.83% | 828625 ...