Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Key Points Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The USDA area report for 2025 shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US is 83.38 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate. The impact of the report is neutral due to the increase in current soybean stockpiles. The market will focus on US soybean weather. Domestic soybean meal may be affected by China's purchase of Argentine soybean meal. In futures trading, soybean meal follows CBOT soybean pricing, with short - term sensitivity to weather increasing. Fourth - quarter contracts are cautiously bullish after corrections, subject to weather and tariff risks [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For domestic soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts such as soybean meal 2601, 2509, and 2511 all increased slightly. The US soybean futures contract was weak, with the main contract at 1035 cents. The 2025 US soybean planting area was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres. If the harvest area is also adjusted down and the yield per unit remains at 52.5 bushels, the new - crop US soybean output is expected to be 4.337 billion bushels, a 0.7% decrease from this year. The ending stocks in the 25/26 season may decline to 290 million bushels. The current excellent - good rate of US soybeans is 66%, slightly lower than last year but still at a moderately high level, and most production areas are expected to receive above - average rainfall in the next two weeks [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Soybean meal futures continue to be priced according to CBOT soybeans. In the short - term, it has entered the weather - sensitive period. Based on the expectation of higher costs of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, the fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious bullishness after corrections [6] 2. Industry News - Safras & Mercado estimates that the sales of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season have reached 69.8% of the expected output, and those in the 2025/26 season have reached 16.4% of the expected output. Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June, compared with 13,959,612 tons in the same period last year. As of the week ending June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 24/25 season soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 23.8259 million tons. They also sold 49,900 tons of 25/26 season soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 264,400 tons [9][10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on soybean meal ex - factory prices, 09 - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14]