2025-10-13 01 豆粕：贸易改善遇冷，价格小幅抬升 01 02 油脂：宏观风险加剧，期价短期高位 回调 豆粕：贸易改善遇冷，价格小幅抬升 目 录 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 长江期货粕类油脂周报 01 豆粕：贸易改善遇冷，价格小幅抬升 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止10月11日，华东现货报价2930元/吨，较节前报价上涨40元/吨；M2601合约收盘至2922元/吨，较节前下跌6元/吨；基差报价 01+20元/吨，基差价格上涨60元/吨。周度受中美领导人会晤，贸易改善预期下价格偏弱运行；周五中国交通运输部发布对美船只收取特别港务 费，美国于周六宣布对华所有商品加征100%关税，此举加剧中美贸易担忧，受此影响，周六、周日全国豆粕价格上涨20-30元/吨不等。 ◆ 供应端：USDA10月报告受美国政府停摆影响公布延后，单产存下调预期。9月供需报告上调美豆种植面积至8110万英亩，单产下调至53.5蒲/ 英亩，结转库存上调至3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The new US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is tight. Under the current China - US trade policy, the discount of Brazilian soybeans is expected to have a limited decline. With the support of import costs, the downside space below 00 is expected to be limited. The futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and show a volatile upward trend in the medium - to - long - term due to the expected increase in costs. Attention should be paid to changes in China - US policies [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre from 52.5 to 53.6 bushels per acre, a record high, but unexpectedly cut the 25/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. As a result, the 25/26 US soybean ending stocks were cut from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels [5]. - The Pro Farmer inspection showed that the estimated yield per acre of new US soybeans was 63 bushels, lower than the USDA estimate. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans remained at 68%, still at a high level. Rainfall in the production areas in the next two weeks was expected to be low, but the temperature was low, which might lead to a downward revision of the good - excellent rate [5]. - The arrival of soybeans in China in August and September is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to remain in the inventory accumulation cycle. Shipments from October to January are slow, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [5][6]. Demand - Short - term high inventory levels of pigs and poultry support soybean meal demand. However, policy - oriented control of pig inventory and weight is expected to affect far - month pig supply [6]. - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of high - protein feed. Soybean meal downstream transactions this week are relatively cautious [6]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The inventory accumulation rate of soybean meal has slowed down but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6]. Price and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions such as Dalian, Tianjin, and Zhangjiagang, as well as the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong, and various spread data such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, etc. [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, under the low inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans, a decrease in yield and improvement in exports may further tighten the ratio, with US soybean prices expected to run strongly around 1030 cents per bushel. In China, from September to October, arrivals are abundant, and prices are pressured by the uncertainty of state reserves release and US soybean purchases. However, due to cost support, significant price drops are unlikely. In the short - term, prices will mainly operate within the range of [3080, 3200]. In the long - term, soybean meal prices will follow the upward trend of US soybeans, but the increase may be less than that of US soybeans [6]. - For oils, the improvement in demand combined with the tightening supply provides upward momentum. Currently, the fundamentals of the three major domestic oils are mainly positive. In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of August 22, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The M2601 contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 49 yuan/ton. The basis price was 01 - 100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans rebounded to around 1060 cents per bushel, while the domestic soybean meal trend was inverted, and the market was pressured by state reserves release and US soybean purchases [6]. 3.1.2 Supply - In the first half of August, precipitation in US soybean - growing areas was less than in July. As of August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans remained around 68%, and it is expected to decline. In China, arrivals from August to October are sufficient, but after October, supply may gradually decrease due to the slow pace of US soybean purchases. However, the possibility of state reserves release and US soybean purchases still exists [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the inventory of pigs and poultry was at a high level, supporting the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year in the second half of the year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - In the 25/26 season, the planting cost of US soybeans decreased to 1135 cents per bushel. The bottom price of US soybeans is expected to be around 980 cents per bushel, and it is expected to fluctuate around 1030 cents per bushel. The bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost has risen to 3060 yuan/ton [6]. 3.1.5 Market Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, soybean meal prices will mainly operate within the range of [3080, 3200]. In the long - term, they will follow the upward trend of US soybeans. The strategy is to mainly conduct range operations on M2601, lay out long positions at the lower edge of the range, and gradually reduce positions at high prices. Spot enterprises should increase positions in a rolling manner [6]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week ending August 22, the palm oil main 01 contract rose 132 yuan/ton to 9592 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 01 contract fell 76 yuan/ton to 8458 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 01 contract rose 133 yuan/ton to 9890 yuan/ton. The domestic oil market showed slight differentiation this week [80]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB July report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil only accumulated to 2.13 million tons, lower than market expectations. In August, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil rebounded strongly, while the production increase was slow, so the inventory accumulation speed may continue to slow down. In Indonesia, the ending inventory continued to decline to 2.53 million tons in June. In China, palm oil imports have increased, and the short - term supply is expected to remain loose [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The Pro Farmer survey estimated the 25/26 season US soybean yield to be 53 bushels per acre, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. However, the USDA August report unexpectedly lowered the sown area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season, and the overall supply - demand situation has tightened. In China, the soybean supply is sufficient until October, but after November, the supply may tighten, which is expected to drive the inventory of soybean oil to decline [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has been finalized, which will seriously affect the import of Canadian rapeseed. In the short - term, although there are market rumors about the purchase of Australian rapeseed, the supply of rapeseed in China is expected to be tight before November, which is conducive to the reduction of rapeseed oil inventory [80]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals of the three major domestic oils are mainly positive. In the short - term, they are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. The strategy is to consider long positions on dips or rolling long positions for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. For arbitrage, pay attention to the long strategy of the palm oil 1 - 5 spread [80].

Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Report Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August supply - demand balance report for US soybeans is unexpectedly bullish. Assuming the area estimate is reasonable, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. The potential for further increases in yield is limited, and the negative impact of weather has been mostly digested. Although there is still room for a decline in US soybean export demand, the extent is expected to be small. The new - season US soybean market will only be slightly loose, and the CBOT soybean low may have been reached, with a future outlook of oscillating slightly stronger [6]. - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the external market. There have been frequent bullish factors recently. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has restricted its imports, and high tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil are favorable for soybean meal. With the 23% tariff on US soybeans remaining until early November, China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans. However, Brazilian soybean prices are rising, and it may be difficult to avoid an increase in the cost of imported soybeans. Therefore, soybean meal is expected to remain strong in the medium term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For the soybean meal contracts, the 2601 contract had a previous settlement price of 3137, opened at 3145, reached a high of 3167, a low of 3123, and closed at 3155, up 18 or 0.57% with a trading volume of 1057425 and an open interest of 2063811, an increase of 48679. The 2509 contract had a previous settlement price of 3082, opened at 3090, reached a high of 3110, a low of 3068, and closed at 3100, up 18 or 0.58% with a trading volume of 363469 and an open interest of 462582, a decrease of 59411. The 2511 contract had a previous settlement price of 3113, opened at 3120, reached a high of 3142, a low of 3100, and closed at 3131, up 18 or 0.58% with a trading volume of 110364 and an open interest of 603346, an increase of 3323. The US soybean futures contract on the external market was oscillating, with the main contract at 1035 cents [6]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.379 billion pounds, slightly lower than the expected 1.38 billion pounds, and up from 1.366 billion pounds in June. The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 195.699 million bushels, higher than the expected 191.59 million bushels and up from 185.709 million bushels in June [15]. - From August 18 - 21, 2025, Pro Farmer will conduct its annual North American field survey. Researchers will measure in more than 2000 corn and soybean fields in seven states, and the results will be announced at 9:00 am Beijing time daily [15]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][14][20]

Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing rapidly, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels for M01 [6] Group 2: Supply - related Summary - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. In May, the customs' soybean import volume was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival volume is expected to reach a high in June, July, and August, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6] Group 3: Demand - related Summary - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains high. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is used to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6] Group 4: Inventory - related Summary - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The soybean meal inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6] Group 5: Data Presentation Basis Data - On July 10th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 14, down 7; in Tianjin, it was - 74, down 7; in other regions, the basis and its changes are also presented. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal (against the main contract) in different regions also has corresponding data and changes. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 131, down 25 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong and the spread on the main futures contract are presented, along with their historical data and changes [5] Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1311, the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean gross profit on the futures, and the crushing profit on the futures are also given, along with relevant data on soybean inventory in Chinese ports, soybean inventory in major domestic oil mills, soybean meal inventory in major domestic oil mills, soybean crushing volume in major domestic oil mills, and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [5]

Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Key Points Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The USDA area report for 2025 shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US is 83.38 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate. The impact of the report is neutral due to the increase in current soybean stockpiles. The market will focus on US soybean weather. Domestic soybean meal may be affected by China's purchase of Argentine soybean meal. In futures trading, soybean meal follows CBOT soybean pricing, with short - term sensitivity to weather increasing. Fourth - quarter contracts are cautiously bullish after corrections, subject to weather and tariff risks [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For domestic soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts such as soybean meal 2601, 2509, and 2511 all increased slightly. The US soybean futures contract was weak, with the main contract at 1035 cents. The 2025 US soybean planting area was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres. If the harvest area is also adjusted down and the yield per unit remains at 52.5 bushels, the new - crop US soybean output is expected to be 4.337 billion bushels, a 0.7% decrease from this year. The ending stocks in the 25/26 season may decline to 290 million bushels. The current excellent - good rate of US soybeans is 66%, slightly lower than last year but still at a moderately high level, and most production areas are expected to receive above - average rainfall in the next two weeks [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Soybean meal futures continue to be priced according to CBOT soybeans. In the short - term, it has entered the weather - sensitive period. Based on the expectation of higher costs of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, the fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious bullishness after corrections [6] 2. Industry News - Safras & Mercado estimates that the sales of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season have reached 69.8% of the expected output, and those in the 2025/26 season have reached 16.4% of the expected output. Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June, compared with 13,959,612 tons in the same period last year. As of the week ending June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 24/25 season soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 23.8259 million tons. They also sold 49,900 tons of 25/26 season soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 264,400 tons [9][10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on soybean meal ex - factory prices, 09 - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Under domestic inventory accumulation pressure, the basis performance is under pressure. The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the China - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of de - stocking of soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, it is expected that US soybeans will rise and the premium will fall. The overall decline space of the futures market is expected to be limited [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year. Short - term temperature and rainfall show no obvious abnormalities. In May, the import volume of US soybeans was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival expectations for June, July, and August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [4]. Demand - From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition increases, and the提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [5]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventories have increased to a high level; soybean meal is accumulating inventory at an accelerated pace; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [5]. Price - related Data - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions (such as Dalian, Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, etc.), the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal (both spot and futures), and the basis spread between different contracts (such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1) [3][4].