投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/8/26 | 指标 | | 8月25日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 33 | | 2500 2000 | - 23/24 ===== 19/20 ===== 20/21 ====- 21/22 ===== 22/23 | | | 24/25 | | | | -77 | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -17 | -9 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | | 1000 | | | | | | | 日照 | | 11 | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -57 | -19 | -500 | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 10/22 | 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 ...

长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-08-25 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：需求好转叠加供应收紧，上行动 力仍存 豆粕：贸易改善预期下，价格承压下行 目 录 01 豆粕：贸易改善预期下，价格承压下行 01 豆粕：贸易改善预期下，价格承压下行 ◆ 周度行情回顾：截止8月22日，华东现货报价3020元/吨，周度报价下跌20元/吨；M2601合约收盘至3088元/吨，周度下跌49元/吨； 基差报价01-100元/吨，周度报价上涨30元/吨。周度美豆低位抬升，中国预计采买美豆刺激下，价格低位反弹至1060美分/蒲附近； 国内豆粕走势倒挂，抛储及美豆采买打压盘面表现，M2601合约一度下跌至3080元/吨。现货价格跟随盘面偏弱，但基差走强，价格 强于盘面表现。 2500 3500 4500 5500 6500 2022-08-24 2022-10-08 2022-11-14 2022-12-21 2023-02-02 2023-03-13 2023-0 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 8 月 19 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing rapidly, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels for M01 [6] Group 2: Supply - related Summary - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. In May, the customs' soybean import volume was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival volume is expected to reach a high in June, July, and August, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6] Group 3: Demand - related Summary - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains high. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is used to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6] Group 4: Inventory - related Summary - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The soybean meal inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6] Group 5: Data Presentation Basis Data - On July 10th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 14, down 7; in Tianjin, it was - 74, down 7; in other regions, the basis and its changes are also presented. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal (against the main contract) in different regions also has corresponding data and changes. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 131, down 25 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong and the spread on the main futures contract are presented, along with their historical data and changes [5] Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1311, the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean gross profit on the futures, and the crushing profit on the futures are also given, along with relevant data on soybean inventory in Chinese ports, soybean inventory in major domestic oil mills, soybean meal inventory in major domestic oil mills, soybean crushing volume in major domestic oil mills, and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [5]

Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Key Points Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The USDA area report for 2025 shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US is 83.38 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate. The impact of the report is neutral due to the increase in current soybean stockpiles. The market will focus on US soybean weather. Domestic soybean meal may be affected by China's purchase of Argentine soybean meal. In futures trading, soybean meal follows CBOT soybean pricing, with short - term sensitivity to weather increasing. Fourth - quarter contracts are cautiously bullish after corrections, subject to weather and tariff risks [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For domestic soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts such as soybean meal 2601, 2509, and 2511 all increased slightly. The US soybean futures contract was weak, with the main contract at 1035 cents. The 2025 US soybean planting area was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres. If the harvest area is also adjusted down and the yield per unit remains at 52.5 bushels, the new - crop US soybean output is expected to be 4.337 billion bushels, a 0.7% decrease from this year. The ending stocks in the 25/26 season may decline to 290 million bushels. The current excellent - good rate of US soybeans is 66%, slightly lower than last year but still at a moderately high level, and most production areas are expected to receive above - average rainfall in the next two weeks [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Soybean meal futures continue to be priced according to CBOT soybeans. In the short - term, it has entered the weather - sensitive period. Based on the expectation of higher costs of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, the fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious bullishness after corrections [6] 2. Industry News - Safras & Mercado estimates that the sales of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season have reached 69.8% of the expected output, and those in the 2025/26 season have reached 16.4% of the expected output. Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June, compared with 13,959,612 tons in the same period last year. As of the week ending June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 24/25 season soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 23.8259 million tons. They also sold 49,900 tons of 25/26 season soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 264,400 tons [9][10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on soybean meal ex - factory prices, 09 - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Under domestic inventory accumulation pressure, the basis performance is under pressure. The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the China - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of de - stocking of soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, it is expected that US soybeans will rise and the premium will fall. The overall decline space of the futures market is expected to be limited [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year. Short - term temperature and rainfall show no obvious abnormalities. In May, the import volume of US soybeans was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival expectations for June, July, and August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [4]. Demand - From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition increases, and the提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [5]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventories have increased to a high level; soybean meal is accumulating inventory at an accelerated pace; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [5]. Price - related Data - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions (such as Dalian, Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, etc.), the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal (both spot and futures), and the basis spread between different contracts (such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1) [3][4].