Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on soybean imports and prices, emphasizing the need for a bottom-line mindset in case no agreement is reached, which could lead to increased U.S. soybean inventories and lower prices [4]. Pathways Analysis - **Pathway 1: Accelerating Domestic Soybean Crushing** The U.S. soybean crushing capacity is projected to reach 2.6-2.65 billion bushels by the end of 2025, with a potential increase to 2.7-2.75 billion bushels by the end of 2026. This could lead to a reduction in baseline inventories from 500 million bushels to approximately 350 million bushels, providing support for CBOT soybean prices [5][6]. - **Pathway 2: External Inventory Replacement** Brazil's domestic biodiesel policies may increase local crushing, but the necessity to import U.S. soybeans is low due to ample South American supply. This pathway is considered more theoretical with limited practical implementation [7]. - **Pathway 3: USDA Production Adjustments** Historical data suggests that USDA's adjustments to yield estimates can significantly impact market perceptions. A potential reduction in yield from 53.1 bushels per acre to 50.7 bushels per acre could alleviate inventory pressures, driving CBOT soybean prices upward. However, this is contingent on actual weather conditions and data accuracy [8][9]. Impact on Domestic Soymeal - **Pathways 1 & 2: Increased Global Soymeal Supply** If biodiesel policies in Brazil and the U.S. are implemented, global soybean crushing will increase, leading to higher soymeal inventories and downward pressure on prices. The impact on domestic soymeal prices will depend on whether imports from South America are allowed [9][10]. - **Pathway 3: Temporary Price Surge** A significant downward adjustment in USDA's yield estimates could temporarily elevate global soybean prices, but the sustainability of this increase will depend on the realization of Pathways 1 and 2 [10][11]. Conclusion - The article concludes that without U.S. soybean purchases, the resolution of the soybean market largely depends on increasing domestic crushing, external inventory replacement, and potential USDA yield adjustments. Pathway 3 may provide immediate price support, while Pathway 2 is less likely to materialize. The domestic soymeal market's response will hinge on import policies and global supply dynamics [11].