1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The polyethylene market is under significant supply pressure and should be approached with a bearish outlook. The upstream supply is ample, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, with expected weakening. The upstream profit is expected to remain weak, and the market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends [1][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - Supply pressure is relatively large. Upstream has sufficient supply, and downstream demand is gradually decreasing as the peak season is ending [1][7]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Polyethylene Market Situation - **Production**: This week's production slightly decreased to 64.81 million tons. Next week, due to the restart of many maintenance devices, production may slightly increase to 65.72 million tons [5]. - **Imports and Exports**: The import volume is stable at 23.23 million tons, and the export volume is 2.50 million tons. In September, imports were 102 million tons, and exports were 9.9 million tons, slightly higher than expected [5]. - **Apparent Demand**: This week's calculated apparent demand increased slightly to 86.04 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight de - stocking this week, with the total inventory dropping from 106.40 million tons to 105.91 million tons. Next week, a slight inventory build - up is expected, reaching 109.06 million tons [5]. 3.2.2 Valuation - **Raw Material Cost and Upstream Profit**: Crude oil prices rebounded slightly, and coal prices strengthened slightly. PE costs have been oscillating upwards recently. With raw materials strengthening and finished product prices weakening, upstream profits are expected to remain weak next week [6]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit improved from - 343 to - 155, while HD import profit decreased from 388 to 31. PE export profit weakened, and import profit deteriorated [6]. 3.2.3 Views on Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream - **Upstream**: There are many maintenance devices, but production is still high, and the upstream is mainly focused on active sales [7]. - **Mid - stream**: The mid - stream's sales situation is average. After the futures market weakened, futures - cash arbitrageurs actively sold [7]. - **Downstream**: This week's downstream transactions were average. The downstream mainly purchases as needed, and as the peak demand season is ending, demand is expected to decline slightly [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis has been oscillating and weakening recently. For example, the North China basis decreased from - 10 to - 40 [6]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The inter - monthly spread has been oscillating. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread decreased from - 33 to - 52 [6]. - **Variety Spread**: HD - LL has been oscillating. The far - month LL - PP spread is recommended to be temporarily exited for observation [6]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. The recommended option strategy is to sell call options [7].