证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：局部地区春季订单开始释放，长丝盈利仍在改善 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 截至 11 月 21 日当周，国内重点大 炼化项目价差为 2389.69 元/吨，环比变化+52.43 元/吨（+2.24%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1446.16 元/吨，环比变化+6.66 元/吨 （+0.4 ...

事项： 公司发布2025 年三季报，报告期内公司实现营收2131.51 亿元，同比-16.57%，归母净利润390.52 亿 元，同比-9.98%，扣非归母净利润387.04 亿元，同比-15.90%；Q3 实现营收750.42 亿元，同比/环比分 别-13.1%/+9.51%，归母净利润144.11 亿元，同比/环比分别-6.24%/+13.54%，扣非归母净利润143.92 亿 元，同比/环比分别-13.05%/+14.16%。 风险提示：国内需求不及预期，进口煤大幅增长，长协政策变化等 长协比例大幅增长，主业产能持续提升。2025 年前三季度公司年度长协/月度长协销售占比分别为 53.2%/39.3%，合计约92.5%，同比上期重述值提升7pct。 主业新增产能方面：电力端，控股子公司国能神华九江发电有限责任公司二期扩建工程3 号机组（装机 容量共计1000MW）于2025 年8 月正式投入商业运营；公司在福建、广东省多个光伏发电项目投运，光 伏发电装机容量增加264兆瓦。煤炭端，新街一井、新街二井均已获得国家发展改革委核准批复及项目 开工备案文件，处于建设阶段；公司在2025 年2 月完成对国家能源集 ...

沪深交易所2025年11月17日公布的交易公开信息显示，振德医疗（603301）因有价格涨跌幅限制的日收 盘价格跌幅偏离值达到7%的前五只证券登上龙虎榜。此次是近5个交易日内第1次上榜。 交易信息汇总 龙虎榜上榜 截至2025年11月21日收盘，振德医疗（603301）报收于75.49元，较上周的88.59元下跌14.79%。本周， 振德医疗11月17日盘中最高价报88.59元。11月18日盘中最低价报74.09元。振德医疗当前最新总市值 201.14亿元，在医疗器械板块市值排名11/126，在两市A股市值排名909/5167。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 交易信息汇总：振德医疗因日收盘价格跌幅偏离值达7%登上龙虎榜。 公司公告汇总：振德医疗拟开展原材料套期保值业务，保证金上限3,000万元。 振德医疗关于开展套期保值业务的公告 振德医疗拟开展聚乙烯、聚丙烯及橡胶等原材料相关的金融衍生品套期保值业务，以降低原材料价格波 动对公司经营的影响。交易保证金上限为3,000万元，最高合约价值不超 ...

徐绍祖（联系人） PE农膜订单好于预期， 高产量压力暂时缓解 聚烯烃周报 2025/11/22 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场止跌后大幅反弹，大宗商品市场跟涨。 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货），聚丙烯周度涨幅（成本＞现货＞期货）。 成本端：上周WTI原油上涨1.62%，Brent原油上涨1.28%，煤价无变动0.00%，甲醇下跌-4.52%，乙烯下跌-0.47%，丙烯上涨2.94%， 丙烷上涨2.52%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率83.77%，环比上涨0.06%，同比去年上涨2.17%，较5年同期下降-7.82%。PP产能利用率77.71%，环比下降- 3.85%，同 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/21 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/11/1 4 801 2060 2048 2380 2370 2350 2580 239 319 -10 -30 - 2025/11/1 7 801 2020 2010 2370 2365 2350 2560 239 319 - -28 - 2025/11/1 8 801 2010 2005 2370 2350 2335 2568 236 318 - -23 - 2025/11/1 9 801 1995 1985 2348 2350 2335 2578 - 317 - -20 - 2025/11/2 0 801 2007 1990 2355 2350 2340 2578 - - - -20 - 日度变化 0 12 5 7 0 5 0 - - - 0 - 观点 现实差继续，伊朗停车慢于预期，11月应还是高进口，01矛盾较难处理，港口制裁的事情预计能在限气结束前解 决，库存去化较 难 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the futures market continues to decline weakly. High port inventory pressure persists, with limited destocking before the 01 contract. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [3]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, showing relative resilience. Supply - side corporate profits are low, and production has slightly declined but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved due to agricultural reserves and exports. With export policies and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. - For rubber, the start - up load of tire enterprises has decreased, and semi - steel tire export orders have slowed. However, typhoons may increase supply, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts may benefit the January contract. Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. - For PVC, corporate profits are at a low level, supply is high with new installations coming online, and demand is weak both domestically and in exports. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are stable, while styrene prices are rising. Supply is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to pause production growth may support oil prices. PE valuation has limited downside, but high warehouse receipts suppress the market. With inventory reduction and seasonal demand, prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. - For polypropylene, cost - side supply may increase, and supply pressure remains high. Although demand has rebounded seasonally, overall inventory pressure is high. Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, leading to expected inventory accumulation in November. However, there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand structure, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. - For PTA, supply - side maintenance has increased, but new installations will lead to inventory accumulation in November. Demand may remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas installations are operating at high loads, imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.66% decline, at 455.50 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.43 million barrels to 424.16 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 410.93 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 3, Lunan by 5, and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 2016 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline. Be vigilant about price drops [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, while Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan to 1665 yuan, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 70 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, with limited downside. It's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: As of November 20, 2025, the start - up load of full - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire export orders slowed. Typhoons may increase supply, and 110,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be cancelled on November 15 [10]. - **Strategy**: Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 36 yuan to 4456 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 311. The overall start - up rate was 78.5%, down 2.2%. Factory inventory was 322,000 tons, down 12,000 tons, and social inventory was 1.028 million tons, down 13,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also stable, with a narrowing basis. The spot price of styrene increased, and the futures price also rose, with a strengthening basis. The upstream start - up rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 265,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6835 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6855 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 20 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 83.77%, up 0.89%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 259,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 50,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy**: Prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 120 yuan/ton, strengthening by 34 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 77.71%, down 0.68%. Overall inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6830 yuan. PX CFR increased by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was - 22 yuan. The Chinese load was 86.8%, down 3%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some installations were shut down or under maintenance [22]. - **Strategy**: There may be inventory accumulation in November, but there is support, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 16 yuan to 4696 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan. The load was 72.1%, down 3.6%. Some installations were under maintenance, and downstream load increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side inventory may accumulate in November, and PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 81 yuan to 3822 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 34 yuan to 3885 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan. The load was 70.7%, down 0.9%. Port inventory increased by 71,000 tons [27]. - **Strategy**: Inventory is accumulating, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28].

《振德医疗关于开展套期保值业务的公告》 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 近日，振德医疗发布关于开展套期保值业务的公告。公告称，公司拟开展聚乙烯、聚丙烯及橡胶等原材 料相关的金融衍生品套期保值业务，以降低原材料价格波动对公司经营的影响。交易保证金上限为 3,000万元，最高合约价值不超过20,000万元，资金来源为自有资金，交易期限自董事会审议通过之日起 12个月。该事项已获公司第四届董事会第四次会议审议通过，不需提交股东大会审议。公司指出，存在 市场、政策、履约、技术和操作等风险，并已制定相应风控措施。 最新公告列表 截至2025年11月20日收盘，振德医疗（603301）报收于77.0元，较前一交易日下跌1.8%，最新总市值为 205.17亿元。该股当日开盘78.8元，最高79.94元，最低76.76元，成交额达3.78亿元，换手率为1.83%。 ...

穿行在内蒙古大地，除了能遇见一个个巨大的"煤海"，还能看到蔚为壮观的光伏"海洋"、风机"丛林"， 以及充满未来感的绿氢产业链和储能电站。这一幕幕场景，正勾勒出内蒙古能源发展的系统性变局。 煤炭资源储量占全国的1/4以上，风能资源技术可开发量约占全国的57%，太阳能资源技术可开发量约 占全国的21%……"十四五"期间，内蒙古依托得天独厚的资源禀赋，抓住能源革命新机遇，通过下好传 统能源产业转型升级、新能源产业做大做强和未来能源产业超前布局"三步棋"，开启能源革命的破局与 远征。 传统能源产业"老树发新芽" 煤炭是黑色的？不，它也可以是白色的、透明的，甚至是五彩斑斓的。在内蒙古，经过清洁高效利用， 一块黑煤，能变成一瓶白色颗粒状聚乙烯、一卷透明保鲜膜…… 这背后，是内蒙古开辟"煤头化尾"新篇，打造以煤制油气、煤制烯烃和精细化学品为支撑的现代煤化工 产业体系。2024年，煤炭就地转化利用规模超过1亿吨，有力推动了传统能源绿色转型。 在包头市九原区的国能包头煤化工有限责任公司，蓝天白云下，小桥流水、鸟语花香，很难让人把它与 煤炭产业挂钩。然而，世界首套煤制烯烃示范装置，十几年前就是在这里投运。 "发展以煤为原料制取化 ...

Traditional Energy Industry - Inner Mongolia is transforming its coal industry by developing a modern coal chemical industry system, focusing on clean and efficient utilization of coal, which is projected to exceed 100 million tons by 2024 [2] - The coal-to-olefins demonstration project will convert 3 million tons of coal into 1.8 million tons of methanol, generating an annual revenue of approximately 6 billion yuan [2] New Energy Industry - Inner Mongolia has become the first province in China to exceed 100 million kilowatts of installed renewable energy capacity, with a total of 150 million kilowatts, surpassing thermal power capacity [5] - The region has established a complete photovoltaic industry chain, including silicon materials, rods, slices, and modules, significantly reducing production costs and energy consumption [5] - The Tengger Desert's 2 million kilowatt photovoltaic project can meet the electricity needs of 1.3 million households annually [5] Future Energy Industry - The launch of the largest green ammonia project in China marks a significant step towards the commercialization of the green hydrogen and ammonia industry, with an annual production capacity of 320,000 tons [8] - Inner Mongolia is developing a green hydrogen corridor and hydrogen pipeline network, aiming to become a major hub for green hydrogen production and application [9] New Energy Storage - Inner Mongolia is actively developing new energy storage projects, with 34 new projects initiated in the first half of the year, aiming for a total installed capacity of 10.32 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [10] - New energy storage is seen as a crucial component for stabilizing the power system and supporting the development of a new power system [10] Electricity Market Reform - Inner Mongolia is leading in green electricity trading, with a total of 76.2 billion kilowatt-hours traded in 2024, and is integrating into the national unified electricity market [11] - The region is encouraging long-term power purchase agreements between renewable energy producers and key users to enhance market efficiency [12]

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia is undergoing a significant energy transformation, leveraging its abundant coal, wind, and solar resources to drive a comprehensive energy revolution [2][10]. Traditional Energy Industry - Inner Mongolia is developing a modern coal chemical industry, transforming coal into high-value products like polyethylene and polypropylene, with a projected conversion scale exceeding 100 million tons by 2024 [3][5]. - The coal-to-olefins demonstration facility in Baotou processes 3 million tons of coal annually to produce 600,000 tons of methanol and generates approximately 6 billion yuan in annual revenue [5]. New Energy Industry - Inner Mongolia has become the first region in China to exceed 100 million kilowatts of installed renewable energy capacity, with current installations reaching 150 million kilowatts, surpassing thermal power capacity [11]. - The region is developing a complete photovoltaic industry chain, producing high-purity polysilicon and solar panels, with innovative processes reducing energy consumption and costs [13][16]. Future Energy Industry - The launch of the largest green ammonia project in China marks a significant step in the green hydrogen and ammonia industry, with an annual production capacity of 320,000 tons [19][21]. - Inner Mongolia is planning to establish a green hydrogen corridor and hydrogen pipeline network, aiming to become a national leader in green hydrogen production and applications [21]. New Energy Storage - A series of new energy storage projects are underway, with a target of reaching 10.32 million kilowatts of installed capacity by the end of 2024, and projections of over 16 million kilowatts by 2025 [23]. - The region is actively reforming its electricity market, leading the nation in green electricity trading volumes, with 76.2 billion kilowatt-hours settled in 2024 [24].