Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and inventories are expected to continue the destocking trend. The peak season for greenhouse films is approaching, and packaging film orders are also supported, with the demand side gradually improving. In the medium - long term, the planned restart of some devices and the expected commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE plant in September will increase the industry's supply pressure. The global crude oil supply - demand is weak, and although the short - term geopolitical deterioration in the Middle East still supports oil prices to some extent, it has an impact on costs. Technically, L2601 should pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the pressure around 7,300 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,247 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,247 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,240 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,185 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan. The trading volume was 212,912 lots, down 11,546 lots; the open interest was 490,459 lots, up 9,091 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was - 62, down 12. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 333,381 lots, up 7,130 lots; the short positions were 360,509 lots, up 5,936 lots; the net long positions were - 27,128 lots, up 1,194 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,266.96 yuan/ton, down 11.74 yuan; in East China was 7,340.48 yuan/ton, down 7.38 yuan. The basis was 14.96, up 6.26 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.94 US dollars/barrel, up 0.47 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 600.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 836 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 78.68%, down 0.04 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 49.56%, down 0.29 percentage points; of pipes was 30.17%, down 0.5 percentage points; of agricultural films was 17.46%, up 2.93 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 5.89%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.51%, up 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.38%, up 0.79 percentage points; of at - the - money call options was 10.37%, up 0.79 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 22nd to 28th, China's total polyethylene production was 617,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene producers was 78.72%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.3% from the previous period. As of September 3rd, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 450,800 tons, a 5.57% increase from the previous period; as of August 29th, the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 560,500 tons, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period [2]