Core Viewpoint - The polyester raw material market is experiencing fluctuations with PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol showing mixed trends, indicating a potential bearish outlook for prices in the near term [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Monday, PX futures closed at 6796 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, while PTA futures closed at 4798 yuan/ton, up 0.42%, and ethylene glycol futures closed at 4267 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1] - The spot market for PX showed a price correction, with negotiations for September to December around +8.5/+10, while PTA spot discussions were generally weak [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is expected to remain weak due to increased supply and weak demand, with attention on the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 for production decisions [1] - Domestic PX production is experiencing a temporary decline due to maintenance of large facilities, with an operating rate of 83.8% as of June 27, down 1.8 percentage points [1] - Ethylene glycol's domestic operating rate is at 67.27%, down 3.07 percentage points, with expectations of concentrated imports in July leading to inventory accumulation at ports [1] Group 3: Price Outlook and Trading Strategy - The market logic suggests that while PX supply is tight, cost and end-user feedback may lead to price declines; PTA supply is expected to increase as downstream demand weakens [1] - The trading strategy recommends a bearish outlook for polyester raw materials, with specific support and resistance levels identified for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol [1]

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2025 年 06 月 25 日 短纤：成本坍塌单边偏弱，加工费修复 瓶片：成本坍塌单边偏弱，加工费修复 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2507 | ୧୧୨୧ | 6922 | -226 | PF07-08 | 94 | 96 | -2 | | PF | 短纤2508 | 6602 | 6826 | -224 | PF08-09 | 116 | 124 | -8 | | | 短纤2509 | ୧486 | 6702 | -216 | PF基差 | 213 | 89 | 124 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 283319 | 296360 | -13041 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 815 | 6.915 | -100 | | ...