交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 能源化工周报—PX、PTA、乙二醇、 短纤 2025年10月12日 研究员：兰雪 交易咨询：Z0018543 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 基本面要点： 数据来源：同花顺、隆众资讯 东亚期货 3 http://www.eafutures .com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 目录 1 供给 2 需求 3 库存、价差 4 价格、成本、利润 • 价格：PTA现货 元/吨，乙二醇 元/吨，短纤 元/吨。 6,365 4450 4070 • 供给：PTA开工率 %，环比 ，同比 。乙二醇开工率 %，环比 ，同比 。短纤开工率 %， 环比 ，同比 。 74.9 -2.85% -8.88% 74.87 1.88% 9.40% 94.3 -1.15% 12.00% ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 01 本周短纤观点：预期驱动下跌，波动率放大，正套 供应 国庆期间部分中空及低熔点等工厂提升负荷，节后福建个别工厂检修，短纤平均开工率下下行至94.3%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工降低至94.5%， 短纤后续预计在93%-95%区间震荡，10-11月更多看下游压力，可能逐渐小幅下行。 国庆后价格跟随原料下跌，下游低位补库情绪仍较好，国庆期间工厂库存增加多在1-3天附近，至本周五短纤库存保持去化，1.4D权益库存在 6.4天，实物库存16.2天（环比去库约 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] Report's Core View - The chemical industry as a whole is facing various challenges, including weak demand, high inventory, and pressure on supply. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is generally bearish. However, there are also some differences among different sub - industries, and specific product trends need to be analyzed based on their own fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are weak, with limited upward momentum for spot prices due to subdued demand and general market trading [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices continue to decline, with increased supply pressure from higher production and inventory accumulation [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are in a low - level shock, and styrene prices are under pressure due to weak cost support, sufficient supply, and lackluster demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling due to oil price decline. Near - term supply - demand is okay, but long - term pressure exists [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak fundamental situation with high domestic production and large port inventory accumulation [4] - Short fiber has some support from seasonal demand, while bottle chip demand is expected to weaken [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures stop falling, but near - term weakness persists due to high imports and inventory [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with high supply, large inventory, and limited export support [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak due to high supply, increased inventory, and low demand [6] - Caustic soda supply remains high, with downstream resistance to high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak, with long - term oversupply. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities [7] - Glass has seasonal inventory accumulation, but low - valuation limits the decline. Low - buying near cost can be considered [7]

油价趋势偏弱叠加需求平淡，聚酯原料下行顺畅 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 10月09日，PX 主力合约收6586.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.24%，基差 为-100.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4584.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.22%， 基差为-44.0元/吨。 成本端，10月09日，布油主力合约收盘66.08美元/桶。WTI收62.3美元/ 桶。需求端，10月09日，轻纺城成交总量为680.0万米，15 日平均成交为 857.33万米。 供给端 ：PX端虽期货价格微涨，但基差贴水持续扩大至-100元/吨，暗示 现货市场供应宽松压力未改，可能与海外装置开工回升及国内新产能释放 预期有关。PTA当前开工率仍偏高，部分装置在低加工费环境下计划检修或 减产，但供应端整体仍存在过剩隐患。原油价格中枢下移导致成本支撑转 弱，叠加PX供应压力向PTA传导，PTA生产利润承压，后期开工率或被动下 调。 需求端 ：聚酯需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current economic operation is generally weak, and subsequent incremental policies may be further introduced. The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - For polysilicon, there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, they ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - For glass, the anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - For soda ash, it follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal, the 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For palm oil, Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - For soybean oil, China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - For rapeseed products, the ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - For raw sugar, the high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - For corn, without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - For soybean meal, the domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - For pulp, the current trading logic is about the trading of old needle - wood pulp warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the pressure on the futures market is high. It is advisable to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - For log futures, the fundamentals of logs are strong, the foreign - market quotation has risen, and the spot price has increased, so the log futures will be strong [1]. - For live pigs, the pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight has not decreased significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The overall outlook is bearish [1]. - For crude oil, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation has cooled down, and demand has entered the off - season, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For fuel oil, it has the same situation as crude oil, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, the geopolitical situation cooling down, and demand entering the off - season [1]. - For asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient [1]. - For natural rubber, there are many disturbances on the supply side, inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the RU warehouse receipts are significantly less than the same period in previous years, so it is bullish [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are continuously loose, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, downstream transactions have become dull, and high - level production and high inventory have not been the main factors for suppression [1]. - For PTA, the crude - oil price is weak, the PX market trading is dull, the Asian naphtha cracking is running stably, the price difference between PX and MX has dropped to $132, supporting the short - process profit of PX. Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotational maintenance, and domestic PTA production has declined [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East - China ports is still low, the port arrivals this week are still limited, the overseas ethylene - glycol import is expected to decline, and domestic plant commissioning has put continuous pressure on the ethylene - glycol price. After the holiday, as the peak season for polyester is coming to an end, polyester is expected to be weak [1]. - For short - fiber, short - fiber factory plants are gradually resuming operation. As the price falls, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts in the market has weakened [1]. - For styrene, the international crude - oil market is weak, the US benzene price is relatively low compared to the gasoline price, the economy of STDP is obviously weak, and the US export demand is still restricted by arbitrage. New domestic styrene plants have been put into operation, but the downstream polymer industry has stagnated [1]. - For lime, the export sentiment has eased slightly, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the upside space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - For DR357, the center of the crude - oil market price has been slightly adjusted downward, the maintenance intensity has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, so the price will fluctuate strongly [1]. - For PVC, the maintenance support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the market is returning to fundamentals, and there is large supply pressure due to less maintenance compared to the previous period, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the price will fluctuate weakly [1]. - For caustic soda, many alumina plants in Guangxi are planning to start production, there are unplanned maintenance increases in Shandong in October, the factory loads in South China and Zhejiang are difficult to increase in the short term, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts. The short - term futures price is bearish, and it is bullish in the medium term [1]. - For LPG, OPEC's production increase and high domestic crude - oil inventory are suppressing the upward momentum of LPG. The international CP and FEI prices have weakened, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, with the peak season not being prosperous [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, the price has gradually fallen to a low level, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound, it is gradually entering the contract - changing period, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - Silver: The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - Copper: The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - Aluminum: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - Alumina: The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Zinc: Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - Nickel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: It is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - Iron Ore: The anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - Glass: The anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - Soybean Oil: China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - Rapeseed Products: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - Raw Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - Pulp: The current trading logic is about the trading of

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随油价偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 17 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡为主，不追空 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：成本端偏弱，关注低位反弹风险 | 23 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，现货价格存支撑 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：弱势仍在，短线进入调整 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：暂时弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：2-4正套轻仓入场 | 28 | | 短纤：短期低 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the A-share market showed a positive start, but there were also signs of a pullback after the rally. The technology sector remained active, and it is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [2][4]. - The bond market started well after the holiday, but the sentiment may be suppressed by the risk appetite. The short-term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. - Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy for precious metals in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - The shipping index of European routes showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to supply shortages, while aluminum oxide prices are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [14][20]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [31][36][40]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contracts of both at low prices [51][54]. - The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: After the holiday, A - share major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, and the cyclical sectors performed strongly, while the consumer sectors declined [2]. - Futures situation: The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis spreads of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly [3]. - News: Domestic consumption increased during the holiday, and overseas, the Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were relatively loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Geopolitical risks eased, and precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages [7][9]. - Future outlook: In the fourth quarter, precious metals prices are expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index of European Routes - Spot quotation: The freight rates of different shipping companies are provided [11]. - Index situation: The shipping index of European routes declined, and the freight rates of different routes also decreased [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container capacity increased, and the demand in different regions varied [11]. - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the price increase of shipping companies will affect the main contract price [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper rose, but the downstream procurement willingness was weak [12]. - Macro: The US government was shut down, and the market expected the Fed to implement monetary easing [13]. - Supply: The supply of copper mines was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline [14]. - Demand: The demand for copper was expected to slow down marginally, but it still had strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: The inventories of LME, COMEX, and domestic social copper increased [16]. - Logic: Weak US dollars and supply shortages drove the copper price up [17]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions, and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The price of aluminum oxide declined, and the overall trading sentiment was weak [17]. - Supply: The domestic and overseas supply of aluminum oxide increased, and the demand was weak [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum oxide was high, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely, and the short - term price was under pressure [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3050 [20]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum rose, but the high price suppressed the procurement willingness [21]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly [21]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum showed structural characteristics, and the high price suppressed the orders of small and medium - sized enterprises [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased after the holiday [22]. - Logic: Macro factors supported the aluminum price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20700 - 21300 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy rose [25]. - Supply: The supply of recycled aluminum was tight, and the开工 rate was affected [25]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy recovered moderately, but the terminal demand was weak [25]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum alloy continued to increase [26]. - Logic: The futures price rose with the aluminum price, and the cost supported the price [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20800. Consider arbitrage if the price difference is over 500 [27][28]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc rose, and the trading was light [28]. - Supply: The supply of zinc was loose, and the production of zinc ingots increased [29]. - Demand: The demand for zinc was weak, and the开工 rate of primary processing industries declined [30]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased, and the LME inventory increased [31]. - Logic: Low inventory and weak US dollars supported the zinc price, and it is expected to fluctuate [31]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [31]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin rose significantly, but the trading was light [31]. - Supply: The supply of tin was affected by Indonesia, and the import volume decreased [32]. - Demand: The demand for tin was weak, and the traditional consumption areas were sluggish [33]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: Supply disruptions and the strength of the semiconductor sector drove the tin price up, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [34]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel rose [35]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [35]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in different sectors varied, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [35]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory of nickel was high, and the domestic social inventory was stable [35]. - Logic: Macro factors and policy expectations supported the nickel price, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 126000 [36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel rose slightly [37]. - Raw materials: The price of raw materials was firm, and the cost supported the price [37]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel was expected to increase, and the supply pressure existed [38]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel decreased slowly [38]. - Logic: The futures price rose slightly, and the downstream demand did not meet expectations [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the trading was light [40]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased, and the supply was affected by new projects [41]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was stable and optimistic, but the marginal increase needed to be tracked [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in all links [42]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated, and the supply and demand were in a tight balance [43]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 - 75,000 [43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable during the holiday and rebounded slightly after the holiday [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit declined [44]. - Supply: The production of steel decreased slightly during the holiday, and the overall production was high [45]. - Demand: The demand for steel showed seasonal improvement, and the export volume was high [45]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel increased during the holiday and is expected to decrease seasonally [45]. - View: Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of iron ore rose [46]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures rose, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [46]. - Demand: The demand for iron ore decreased slightly [46]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume increased [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [47]. - View: Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47][48]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot price declined slightly [49]. - Supply: The production of coking coal decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [50]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [50]. - View: Coking coal prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [51]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures rebounded, and the spot price of the factory was stable while the port price declined [54]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative [53]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [53]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly [53]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased [53]. - View: Coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of domestic meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [55]. - Fundamental news: The export sales report of US soybeans was postponed, and the export of Brazilian soybeans was expected to increase [55][56]. - Market outlook: The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The price of live pigs declined [58]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens declined [58]. - Market outlook: The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59].

2025 年 10 月 10 日 短纤：短期低位震荡，趋势偏弱 瓶片：短期低位震荡，趋势偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 瓶片：上游聚酯原料期货先跌后反弹，早盘聚酯瓶片工厂报价多下调 50-80 元不等，午后部分聚酯瓶片 工厂报价上调 40-50 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交尚可。10-12 月订单多成交在 5720-5800 元/吨出厂不等， 略低 5690-5710 元/吨出厂附近，少量略高 5810-5850 元/吨出厂附近，品牌不同价格略有差异 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：-1；瓶片趋势强度：-1(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-10-10 能源化⼯组研究团队 研究员： 原油调整但政策预期偏强，化⼯内部分 化 国际油价企稳震荡，Brent仍未脱离65-70的震荡区间，SC受制于国内 的原油高库存，率先跌至震荡区间下沿。当前原油市场聚焦在以色列与哈 马斯的协议，据报道双方就停火及释放该武装组织扣押的所有人质达成协 议；路透社报道称，协议本身在细节上仍存在明显欠缺，且遗留了诸多尚 未解决的问题，对协议的最终达成存疑。焦煤价格节后首日企稳回升，十 一长假期间陕西多座煤矿被查产量大于核定产能的10%，突遭罚款和停产 整顿，煤炭价格有企稳可能。 板块逻辑： 10月9日晚间发改委和市场监督总局发布"治理价格无序竞争，维护 良好市场秩序"的公告，这可能对国内低迷的大宗商品略略带来情绪端的 提振。就化工品而言，尚未看到非常有效的减产发生。PTA现货加工费再 次跌破200元/吨，周度开工率仅下滑2.4%，EG开工率周度仍攀升；苯乙烯 超过65%的装置已经亏损，周度开工率环比提升2.37%；PP作为节后首日亏 损较大的品种，周度开工也有1.14%的环比提升。供应端没 ...

（原标题：国内商品期货早盘开盘 集运欧线涨超3%） 人民财讯10月10日电，国内商品期货早盘开盘，集运欧线涨超3%，铁矿石、玻璃等涨超1%，纯碱、热 卷等小幅上涨；沥青跌超1%，短纤、菜籽粕等小幅下跌。 ...