智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，控增量是行业中长期改善的核心要义，去存量则更注重解决 当下矛盾。投产周期尾声，行业改善有望"由点及面"。2026年多数石化产品投产增速明显下降，在此基 础上，产能利用率偏高的行业有望率先改善。中美在2026年有望共振开启纺服补库周期，提振PX需 求，PX供需矛盾有望拉大，或为炼化贡献显著弹性。 2026年PX产业链或为炼化带来盈利弹性 2026年，PX新产能投放或不及预期；而近期随着制裁&；炼厂袭击导致的俄罗斯成品油出口走低，叠 加欧美炼能的持续退出，导致海外成品油价差再次走高，芳烃调油窗口有望再次开启，同时中美在2026 年有望共振开启纺服补库周期，提振PX需求，PX供需矛盾有望拉大，或为炼化贡献显著弹性。 PTA&涤纶长丝反内卷进展积极，行业未来新产能增速较低，近期停车检修也不断增多，行业或有望不 断改善。 去存量则更注重解决当下矛盾，安全、环保、能效是政策端的重要抓手，行业协同同样在发挥积极作 用，在多个石化细分领域内，行业协会或企业自发的推进行业反内卷，PTA、己内酰胺、涤纶长丝等细 分行业取得了较为积极的进展。 投产周期尾声，行业改善有望"由点及面" 当前石化 ...

| Million | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月26日 | | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | ななな | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 爱两烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★★★ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | 女女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | なな女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | なな女 | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 ...

-4849 .1012 -48倍 | 7 Elite | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 份格号:F025192 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品神 | | | | | | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期,A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 股指 | 農汤 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 六川金融 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 至间。 | | | | | | | | 近期市场情绪反复,铜价或震荡运行。 | 農汤 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而宏观情绪反复,铝价高位震荡运行。 | 震荡 | F | | | | | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 | 氧化铝 | 格继续围绕成本线附近震荡运行,关注矿端价格变化。 | 美联储内部分歧加大, 近期宏观情绪预计反复。基本面短期国内 | | | | | | | ...

融 研 究 院 聚酯产业的供需发展 金 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 弘 业 期 货 01丨原料端的产能发展情况 02丨下游聚酯的产能发展情况 原料端的产能发展情况 聚酯产业链的产能发展 期 货 金 融 研 究 -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年2024年 聚酯产业链产能增速变化 MEG产能增速 PTA产能增速 聚酯产能增速 PX产能增速 | 业 | 2018年 | 2019年 | 2020年 | 2021年 | 2022年 | 2023年 | 22024年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX产能 | 1463 | 2103 | 2603 | 3208 | 3597 | 4367 | 4367 | | PX产能增速 | 0 | 43.75% | 23.78% | 23.24% | 12.13% | 21.41% | 0% | | ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资 ...

2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持，多MEG空PX | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：窄幅震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 11 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：估值低位反弹 | 17 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 23 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：震荡走势延续，短期或强于低硫 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：转入调整，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 27 | | 短纤：短期震荡市 | ...

来源：福能期货 （来源：福能期货） PTA:虽然成本端原油承压,但装置检修市场较预期延长,截至11月20日,PTA负荷为72. 1%。同时, 印度BIS取消提振PTA出口,PTA累库预期扭转,基差走强,加工差回升至200元/吨以上。预计震荡 运行为主。 短纤:上周短纤负荷97.5%,环比持平,库存环比+0.1天至8.7天。需求一般,工厂维稳走货为主, 终端开工基本维持,织机开工小幅降至73%,加弹开工小幅降至87%。目前短纤加工差在1020元/吨 附近,处于中性水平。短纤基本面一般,预计跟随成本运行为主。 瓶片:上周瓶片负荷81.6%,环比+2.2%,库存16.06天,环比-0.21天。虽然目前瓶片加工差维持低 位,在429元/吨附近,但高社会库存与弱需求影响下难有改善。瓶片自身基本面指引有限,短期价 格预计跟随成本震荡。 纯苯:本周纯苯开工率小幅下行,但仍处高位,同时由于炼厂利润尚可,预计未来供应依然偏高。 同时当前下游利润普遍亏损,下游己内酰胺或有集体减产动作,苯乙烯检修量处于较高水平,需求 整体偏弱。供增需减下纯苯持续累积,偏弱震荡为主。 苯乙烯:苯乙烯开工维续下降,环比-0.3%至68.95%。但下游 ...

成本拖累与终端韧性开工博弈，聚酯链震荡格局 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 11月24日，PX 主力合约收6772.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.33%，基差 为-229.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4680.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.3%， 基差为-60.0元/吨。 成本端，11月24日，布油主力合约收盘62.51美元/桶。WTI收57.98美元/ 桶。需求端，11月24日，轻纺城成交总量为642.0万米，15 日平均成交为 693.8万米。 供给端 ： 潜在装置检修或开工率偏低，将加剧供给趋紧，PTA供给端依赖PX输入，PX 成本攀升将直接传导至PTA加工环节，若PTA装置开工率维持高位缺乏新增 产能释放，PTA成本支撑可能强化，未来价格或震荡偏强。 需求端 ： 轻纺城成交量显著低于15日平均水平终端纺织消费萎缩，聚酯开工率可能 因此承压走低，涤纶需求减弱将直接抑制PTA采购意愿。在PX需求端，作为 PTA上游 ...

丙烯期货主力合约日内5日均线上方震荡整理。目前市场缺乏消息面指引，企业报盘延续平稳为主,个别价格小 幅上探。下游工厂按需跟进,偏高交投有所放量,带动实单重心小涨。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内继续下行收跌。聚乙烯检修减少，远洋及近洋船货到港量增加，整体供应压力 增加。需求端棚膜开工高位持续回落过程，包装膜后续订单跟进缓慢，且多数工厂前期已有备货，下跌行情 下,心态多数偏空,采购积极性走弱。聚丙烯供应端暂无新增产能冲击,但存量检修装置预计减少,装置检修 力度减弱,供应预计小幅增加。需求端短期受原料持续偏弱影响,采购积极性受限。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 日内统苯价格延续跌势,国内持续累库为现实压力,华东现货阴跌,山东成交不及上日。美韩价差持续走扩, 市场关注亚洲纯苯流出可能,但美国汽油裂差转弱,且对美出口有运费和关税门槛,持续性或不足。国内到塔 预期偏高,下游需求整体下降,延续反弹偏空思路,可同时考虑期权配置避免超预期上涨。 苯乙烯期货主力合约目内窄幅波动。苯乙烯工厂产出仍有小幅减量预期,下游需求维持良好状态,苯乙烯供需 紧平衡持续，总库存持续回落，对苯乙烯价格形成一定支撑。 | | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].