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浙商早知道-20251027
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-10-26 23:34
Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Green Tea Group (06831), highlighting its transformation from a backpacker inn to a leading Chinese restaurant brand, aiming to establish a new benchmark for high-cost performance fusion cuisine [5] - Green Tea Group has achieved high-quality growth through a standardized model for fusion cuisine, multi-channel collaboration, and lightweight store structure optimization, leading to continuous revenue and profit growth [5][6] - The company is expected to become a core leader in the Chinese casual dining sector and a representative brand for Chinese dining overseas, driven by increasing chain restaurant rates and accelerated overseas market expansion [5] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Revenue projections for Green Tea Group from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4,718 million, 5,880 million, and 7,330 million CNY, with growth rates of 23%, 25%, and 25% respectively [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 480 million, 616 million, and 779 million CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 37%, 28%, and 26% respectively [7] - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.71, 0.91, and 1.16 CNY, with price-to-earnings ratios of 8, 6, and 5 times [7] Group 3: Key Drivers and Catalysts - The resilience of same-store sales has exceeded market expectations, maintaining steady growth despite uneven consumer recovery [5] - The lightweight store model has significantly increased the proportion of small stores to over 60%, enhancing labor and space efficiency [5] - The overseas expansion pace has surpassed expectations, with strong performance in Hong Kong and smooth site selection in Southeast Asia and North America [5] Group 4: Industry Context - The report indicates that the restaurant industry is experiencing an increase in chain restaurant rates, with a focus on standardization and digitalization, leading to a rising concentration in the sector [5] - The fusion cuisine model of Green Tea Group demonstrates strong replicability, allowing for stable expansion across multiple business formats, including dine-in and takeout [5]