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2025年三季度经济学家问卷调查:股市汇市“双韧性”成共识,财税改革最受期待
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-17 00:03
Group 1 - Majority of respondents positively evaluated the stock market performance in Q3 and are optimistic about the market's outlook for Q4 [1][3] - Over half (54.1%) of economists expect China's GDP growth rate in Q3 to be between 4.8% and 5% [3] - A significant portion (95.1%) of respondents rated the Q4 stock market outlook at 3 points or above (out of 5), indicating a positive sentiment [6] Group 2 - The survey indicates that over 60% (63.9%) of respondents believe the annual CPI increase will be between 0% and 0.2% [6] - Nearly 90% (88.5%) of respondents expect the RMB to USD exchange rate to remain between 7.0 and 7.2 for most of Q4 [7] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to enhance effective investment [9] Group 3 - Respondents expressed strong expectations for fiscal and tax reforms, with a focus on income distribution and social security reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [10] - More than 60% (62.3%) of respondents suggested improving laws and regulations to combat "low-price dumping" and "malicious competition" [9][10] - The survey highlighted a need for timely monetary policy adjustments, with over 40% (41%) of respondents advocating for potential interest rate cuts [9]