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5月,应对“特朗普”不确定A股动静框架之静态指标
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-01 12:23
Core Insights - The report highlights that the current market sentiment is cooling down, with trading activity indicators showing a decline, while asset linkage indicators suggest potential upward space in the market [2][4][18]. Group 1: Asset Linkage Indicators - The stock-bond relative yield is at a historical high, with the April 2025 figures at 1.59% and 0.96% for the two calculation methods, indicating a high comparative value of stocks over bonds [4][11]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) is currently at 3.78%, above one standard deviation, suggesting a favorable risk-return profile for equities [4][17]. - The PE ratio for the Wind All A index is 18.5, with most broad indices below the 50th percentile historically, indicating relatively low valuations [4][18]. Group 2: Market Configuration Indicators - The valuation dispersion remains high, with the coefficient of variation at 0.862, indicating significant differences in stock valuations [4][20]. - The turnover rate has decreased to 1.51%, reflecting a decline in market activity, with historical data showing that lower turnover rates are associated with bearish market conditions [4][25]. - The proportion of stocks above the 50-week moving average has dropped to 64%, indicating a slight retreat in bullish sentiment among individual stocks [4][34]. Group 3: Market Trading/Sentiment Indicators - The maximum daily trading volume as a percentage of historical highs is at 50%, showing a cooling in market trading enthusiasm compared to previous peaks [4][28]. - The MACD for industries is at a historically high level, with 90% of industries showing positive trends, suggesting ongoing opportunities in various sectors [4][30]. - The shareholder buyback scale has significantly increased to 13.97 billion, indicating a strong commitment from companies to support their stock prices [4][37]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - The net reduction in industrial capital was 361 million in April 2025, a significant decrease from previous months, indicating a more cautious approach from major shareholders [4][41]. - The three major funding entities' indicator is at 0.07, reflecting a slight decline, with positive contributions from international intermediaries and financing balances [4][43].
4月,特朗普冲击再临A股动静框架之静态指标
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-01 07:19
Group 1 - The report indicates that the trading sentiment has cooled down, with several indicators showing a decline compared to the previous month, suggesting a potential upward space in the market despite the drop in trading enthusiasm [2][3]. - The asset linkage indicators show that the relative allocation value of stocks compared to bonds remains high in the long term, with the equity risk premium (ERP) above one standard deviation [2][3]. - The market configuration indicators reveal that the overall A-share index is at 18.4, which is lower than the previous month, and most broad-based indices are below the historical median [2][3]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the turnover rate and transaction volume have decreased, indicating a drop in market activity, while the trend indicators for industries and individual stocks have remained stable [2][3]. - The investor behavior section notes a slight decline in share buyback scale to 8.171 billion, while the net reduction in industrial capital has widened slightly, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [2][3]. - The three major funding indicators show a positive shift, with the overall funding indicator rising to 0.19, reflecting a recovery in main capital flows [2][3]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the valuation dispersion is at a relatively high level, with the valuation coefficient indicating a significant variation among individual stock valuations [20][22]. - The industry MACD is at a historically high level, with 90% of industries showing positive trends, suggesting broad opportunities across sectors [30][29]. - The proportion of individual stocks above the 50-week moving average remains stable at 76%, indicating a healthy market condition [32][33].