分析师：徐至 登记编码：S0730525040001 均衡配置成长与价值风格，防范风格切换 ——月度策略 相关报告 《月度策略：市场波动加大，均衡配置成长与 价值——月度策略》 2025-09-05 《月度策略：建议关注成长与价值轮动带来的 机会——月度策略》 2025-08-07 《月度策略：稳健前行，建议关注消费与红利 资产——月度策略》 2025-07-07 投资要点： 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共21页 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10 号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1 座22 楼 证券研究报告-月度策略 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 09 日 联系人：李智 ⚫ 宏观方面。从 9 月份公布的经济数据看，当前宏观经济处于"弱 复苏、低通胀"的阶段，政策层面以稳增长与防风险为主。在此背 景下，货币财政政策维持宽松基调，流动性环境保持充裕，叠加市 场对经济企稳的预期逐步形成，从资金供给与情绪层面共同为新增 资金入场提供了有利支撑。 ⚫ 政策层面。9 月 11 日，国务院印 ...

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) index rose by 0.72%, closing at 1380.35 points, with a total trading volume of 6.879 billion shares and a turnover of 361.047 billion yuan, resulting in an average turnover rate of 3.66% [1] - Among the tradable stocks on the STAR Market, 175 stocks closed higher, with 11 stocks increasing by over 10%, including DeKeLi and HuaFeng Technology, which hit the daily limit [1] - The distribution of turnover rates shows that 4 stocks had turnover rates exceeding 20%, while 47 stocks had rates between 10% and 20% [1] High Turnover Stocks - LiYang Chip had the highest turnover rate at 24.65%, closing up by 5.38% with a trading volume of 1.865 billion yuan [1][3] - ZhongJuXin followed with a turnover rate of 24.21%, closing up by 4.85% and a trading volume of 1.416 billion yuan [1][3] - Other notable stocks with high turnover rates include HuaFeng Technology (23.25%), MaiWei Biology (21.87%), and ZhongYan Co. (19.10%) [1][3] Sector Analysis - Among stocks with a turnover rate exceeding 5%, the electronics sector had the most representation with 83 stocks, followed by machinery and computer sectors with 29 and 27 stocks, respectively [2] - The top gainers in this category included DeKeLi and HuaFeng Technology, both rising by 20.00%, and HuiCheng Co. with a 14.16% increase [2] Fund Flow - In terms of fund flow, 82 stocks experienced net inflows from main funds, with HuaFeng Technology, MaiWei Biology, and ZhongWei Company seeing the highest net inflows of 337 million yuan, 298 million yuan, and 220 million yuan, respectively [2] - Conversely, DongXin Co., ZhongXin International, and PuRan Co. faced significant net outflows of 819 million yuan, 731 million yuan, and 284 million yuan, respectively [2] Leverage Fund Movements - A total of 127 stocks received net purchases from leveraged funds, with notable increases in financing balances for ZhongXin International (1.988 billion yuan), XinYuan Co. (1.012 billion yuan), and Green Harmony (373 million yuan) [2] - Stocks with significant reductions in financing balances included HuaHong Company, Aerospace Hongtu, and YingShi Innovation, with decreases of 242 million yuan, 115 million yuan, and 114 million yuan, respectively [2]

Market Overview - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to a rapid increase in turnover rates and crowded trading in certain sectors, which is considered a normal pullback in a bull market [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3765.88, down 47.68 points, reflecting a decline of 1.25% [1] Market Volatility Reasons - The turnover rate has rebounded too quickly, with the 5-day average reaching levels similar to those seen on October 8 of the previous year [3] - Certain sectors, particularly computing power, experienced excessive trading volume and price increases, leading to a necessary market correction [3] - Investor concerns regarding potential regulatory changes post-September 3 have contributed to market volatility [3] Bull Market Pullback Patterns - In the absence of significant negative news, pullbacks during a bull market typically last less than one week [3] - If regulatory policies are unfavorable, the market may experience a consolidation phase lasting around one month [3] - In slower bull markets, adjustments may take about two weeks, followed by additional fluctuations for one to two months [3] Future Market Trends - Following the current volatility, it is likely that market leadership will shift, with new sectors emerging as frontrunners [3] - Potential leading sectors in September may include consumer and growth stocks at lower valuations, while October could see a resurgence in low-value stocks due to a busy policy period [3]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, Invesco Great Wall Growth Opportunity Mixed A, reported a profit of 396,500 yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 2.03% [3] Fund Performance - As of September 3, the fund's unit net value was 1.297 yuan, with a three-month net value growth rate of 24.72%, ranking 187 out of 615 comparable funds [5] - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 20.46%, ranking 244 out of 615, and the one-year growth rate was 29.55%, ranking 440 out of 601 [5] Fund Holdings and Valuation - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately 24.9 times, slightly below the industry average of 25.34 times [11] - The weighted average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 2.67 times, compared to the industry average of 2.34 times, and the weighted average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was approximately 1.73 times, lower than the industry average of 2.09 times [11] Growth Metrics - For the first half of 2025, the weighted revenue growth rate of the fund's stock holdings was 0.08%, and the weighted net profit growth rate was 0.12% [18] Fund Management and Strategy - The fund manager indicated a focus on high-quality companies capable of integrating into the global supply chain, with limited exposure to U.S. business operations despite tariff impacts [3] Fund Size and Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's total size was 16.1349 million yuan, with 185 holders owning a total of 15.1762 million shares [33][36] - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception was 12.19%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2025 at 10.37% [29] Top Holdings - The top ten holdings of the fund included companies such as Yipinhong, Midea Group, and Baofeng Energy [41]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a shift in the allocation of actively managed mixed equity funds towards the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hong Kong stocks, with increased investments in the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Allocation Analysis - As of June 30, 2025, actively managed mixed equity funds had a market value allocation of approximately 54.52% in the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards, a decrease of 6.22% from December 31, 2024 [1]. - The allocation in the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards was 31.55% and 22.97%, respectively, down by 2.70% and 3.51% compared to the end of 2024 [1]. - The allocation in the ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Hong Kong stocks increased to 15.38%, 14.26%, and 15.59%, respectively, with increases of 0.19%, 1.88%, and 3.99% [1]. Group 2: Holding Characteristics - As of June 30, 2025, the top 1% of stocks held by actively managed mixed equity funds accounted for approximately 30.06% of the total stock investment value, a slight decrease from 31.51% in the 2024 annual report, indicating a minor reduction in "herding" behavior [2]. - The top ten holdings included two consumer electronics stocks and two internet stocks, with the remaining six from sectors such as lithium batteries, liquor, home appliances, metal mining, optical modules, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. Group 3: Industry Configuration - The top five industries for actively managed mixed equity funds as of June 30, 2025, were electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric power equipment, automotive, and food and beverage [2]. - Excluding passive changes due to industry performance, the report highlights that funds actively increased their holdings in pharmaceuticals, electronics, media, and non-bank financial sectors, while significantly reducing their allocation in the electric power equipment sector [2]. Group 4: Turnover Rate Analysis - The overall turnover rate for actively managed mixed equity funds in the first half of 2025 was 140.81%, an increase of 12.15% compared to the second half of 2024 [3]. - Flexible mixed funds had the highest turnover rate at 157.08%, although this was a decrease from the previous period [3]. - In contrast, balanced mixed funds had a lower turnover rate of 125.23%, while the turnover rate for actively managed open-end equity funds increased by approximately 7.32%, marking the smallest increase among fund types [3].

Core Viewpoints - Investors are currently experiencing a mixed sentiment, fearing both stagnant and rapidly rising markets, indicating a desire for better market rhythm control [2] - The reports suggest that different market conditions require different indicators for tracking market trends, with a focus on turnover rate and securitization rate as key metrics [4][5] Group 1: Market Indicators - The turnover rate (total trading volume / total market capitalization) is highlighted as a stable indicator for gauging bull market rhythms, with historical peaks around 10% [2] - High turnover rates often precede market corrections or consolidations, and recent data shows that the 5-day average turnover rate is approaching previous high points, suggesting potential increased volatility [2] Group 2: Securitization Rate - The securitization rate (total market capitalization / GDP) is proposed as a useful tool for identifying valuation peaks in bull markets, particularly when liquidity and valuation expansion drive market movements [4] - Historical data indicates that significant bull markets are often characterized by rising securitization rates, with current rates in China at 0.83, suggesting room for growth before reaching critical valuation thresholds [4] Group 3: Ten Observational Indicators - A set of ten indicators is recommended for market observation, including market capitalization to GDP ratio, trading volume and turnover rate, and margin financing scale [5] - Among these, the market capitalization to GDP ratio and market capitalization to household deposits ratio are seen as having potential for upward movement, while trading volume and turnover rate also show upward potential but with high congestion levels [5]

Market Overview - The Chief Investment Officer of Lianhua Asset Management, Hong Hao, identifies two key indicators for market assessment: the market capitalization to GDP ratio and the margin trading balance [1][6] - Based on these indicators, both the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite Index have a potential upside of 10%, targeting approximately 28,000 and 4,200 points respectively [1][7] Market Indicators - The current market sentiment is reflected in the trading volume, which reached 1.83 trillion yuan, indicating a decrease of 246 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 87, while only 3 stocks hit the limit down, suggesting a generally positive market sentiment [4] Bull Market Analysis - Hong Hao suggests that the current bull market could last until at least November, with the potential for further gains if liquidity conditions remain favorable [6][9] - The margin trading balance has recently exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a high risk appetite in the market, which typically leads the market by 1-3 months [7] Valuation and Bubble Assessment - Hong Hao rates the current level of market bubble at around 3-4 out of 10, suggesting that there is still room for growth before reaching a critical bubble stage [6] - The market capitalization to GDP ratio is currently lower than previous peaks in 2007, 2015, and 2021, which raises questions about the current valuation levels despite a more open market environment [6][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong and A-share markets, driven by significant capital inflows and favorable market conditions [1][2][3]. - In the Hong Kong market, major tech stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi saw a net inflow of over 23 billion, indicating a solid capital base [1]. - The A-share market experienced a record trading volume of approximately 3.2 trillion, ranking as the second highest in history, reflecting increased investor activity [4][5]. Group 2 - The term "fast" refers to the rapid breakthrough of key index levels, with the Wind All A index surpassing 6000 points to 6100 points in just one trading day [7][8]. - The term "fierce" indicates a significant increase in financing balance, with net purchases exceeding 90 billion, marking a substantial acceleration in market activity [11]. - A new policy in Shanghai to relax housing purchase restrictions in areas outside the outer ring is expected to impact the real estate market and broader asset classes [14][17]. Group 3 - The article discusses the performance of the A500 and CSI 300 indices, which have surpassed their previous highs, indicating a recovery for investors who bought into broad-based ETFs [18][20]. - The article emphasizes the importance of quality equity investments in the current market environment, suggesting a favorable outlook for long-term investors [22][23]. - The bond market is also highlighted, with a notable decline in 30-year government bond yields, indicating a bullish trend in both stocks and bonds [26][28]. Group 4 - The article mentions the expansion of the Sci-Tech bond market, with a significant issuance scale of approximately 600 billion in the first half of the year, supporting the technology sector's growth [28][30]. - Recent developments in Sci-Tech bond ETFs, including their inclusion in the pledge financing system, are expected to attract more institutional investment [31][36]. - The article suggests that the Sci-Tech bond ETFs will benefit from strong liquidity and low management fees, making them an attractive option for investors [38].

Group 1 - The stock of Yutian Guanjia increased by 8.37% with a turnover rate of 34.65% and a trading volume of 331 million yuan, showing a fluctuation of 9.72% [2] - The net purchase by the Shenzhen Stock Connect amounted to 15.579 million yuan, while the total net purchase by brokerage seats was 7.0351 million yuan [2] - The top five brokerage seats accounted for a total transaction of 61.4816 million yuan, with a net purchase of 22.614 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The main buying brokerage was the Shenzhen Stock Connect, with a buying amount of 16.3338 million yuan and a selling amount of 0.7549 million yuan, resulting in a net purchase of 15.579 million yuan [2] - The stock experienced a net inflow of 14.0589 million yuan from main funds, including a net inflow of 9.0829 million yuan from large orders [2] - Over the past five days, the main funds have seen a net outflow of 12.1121 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - Credit bond yields have generally risen, with financial bond spreads widening more than non-financial credit bonds. The 5-year and 7-year spreads for lower-rated bonds narrowed significantly, by 4-8 basis points [2][10] - The 3-year financial bonds saw a notable widening in spreads, particularly for perpetual bonds, with 3-year spreads widening by 3-4 basis points [2][10] - The overall turnover rate of credit bonds decreased from 1.99% to 1.93%, indicating a decline in market activity. The weighted average transaction duration for all credit bonds fell from 3.1 years to 3.0 years [3][10] Group 2 - Institutional behavior shows an increased allocation to credit bonds by wealth management and insurance sectors, while funds have reduced their holdings in secondary capital bonds. Wealth management has focused on increasing positions in bonds with maturities of one year or less [4][10] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with a recommendation to prioritize defensive strategies. It is suggested to adopt a short-duration strategy to enhance returns while maintaining portfolio stability [5][10] Group 3 - The average yield for city investment bonds with an implied rating of AA- and above is 2.12%, with significant variations across provinces. High-yield city investment bonds are concentrated in longer-term bonds [13][17] - The average yield for industrial bonds with an implied rating of AA- and above is 1.90%, with the textile and social services sectors showing higher yields [17]