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天然橡胶:多空博弈僵持 胶价区间震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-17 03:05
Group 1: Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of December 16, cup rubber is priced at 50.92 Thai Baht/kg, latex at 55.50 Thai Baht/kg, Hainan private rubber at 15,000 Yuan/ton, Qingdao bonded zone Thai standard at 1,835 USD/ton, and Thai mixed at 14,450 Yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate for Chinese semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 70.14%, up by 1.81 percentage points month-on-month but down by 8.49 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for Chinese all-steel tire sample enterprises is 64.55%, up by 0.55 percentage points month-on-month and up by 6.07 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.51 days, up by 0.56 days month-on-month and up by 5.60 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 40.58 days, up by 1.07 days month-on-month and down by 1.38 days year-on-year [1] Group 3: Import Data and Trends - In the first three quarters of 2025, the U.S. imported a total of 217.312 million tires, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year [2] - Passenger car tire imports increased by 4% to 13.108 million units, while truck tire imports rose by 8% to 4.716 million units; however, aircraft tire imports decreased by 9.3% to 202,000 units [2] - From January to September, U.S. imports of tires from China totaled 1.692 million units, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, with passenger car tire imports down by 37% to 750,000 units [2] - U.S. imports of tires from Thailand reached 5.628 million units, an increase of 14% year-on-year, with passenger car tires at 3.435 million units, up by 10% [2] Group 4: Market Analysis - The geopolitical tensions in Thailand and Cambodia are contributing to rising overseas raw material prices, supporting rubber prices [3] - Tire production is gradually recovering, but overall output remains limited due to slow shipment rhythms and production control measures by companies [3] - Seasonal factors are affecting demand, particularly in northern regions where construction projects are winding down, leading to reduced replacement demand for all-steel tires [3] - The market is expected to remain in a state of indecision, with rubber prices likely to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 to 15,500 [3]