成本铁幕步步紧逼，政策博弈暗流涌动，钢市风云突变。焦煤价格飙升至1296元/吨，铁矿石维持在755元/吨高位，炼钢成本如同坐火箭般攀升，原料成本 占比突破75%。财务总监的报表触目惊心，但钢厂宁可压缩管理费用，也不愿减产，因为吨钢利润仍创三年新高。 "反内卷"政策悄然转变，7月底的会议文 件删除了"低价"二字，"企业无序竞争"成为新的监管目标，期货多头敏锐地捕捉到这一风向转变。 京津冀地区钢厂接到神秘电话，9月限产方案已在筹备之 中，车间主任们开始提前安排高炉检修，甚至将计划提前至8月下旬。环保督查组已进驻山西，焦化厂加紧防尘措施，但仍难逃被罚款的命运。唐山钢坯贸 易商却对此喜闻乐见，因为限产往往意味着钢坯价格上涨，他们正摩拳擦掌准备囤货。 与此同时，钢材库存持续攀升，五大钢材总库存单周暴增23.47万吨，创下两个月来的新高。热卷社会库存激增10.1万吨，螺纹钢库存同步攀升10.39万吨。 贸易商仓库堆积如山，而工地提货速度却如同蜗牛爬行。高温暴雨天气导致华东地区工地停工率超过40%，卡车司机在仓库门口困倦地打起了瞌睡。 然 而，令人匪夷所思的是，钢价却只是轻微震颤，上海螺纹现货价格坚挺在3250元/吨，期货 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a stalemate, with prices hovering around $1900, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1][2] - Bullish sentiment is supported by weak global economic data, particularly China's manufacturing PMI at 48.8, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Bearish pressure arises from a strengthening US dollar, bolstered by unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data and indications from Federal Reserve officials suggesting further interest rate hikes [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is showing initial signs of a bullish reversal, with a clear breakout above a long-term resistance channel [3] - A W-bottom pattern is forming, particularly around the $24 support level, indicating potential upward movement [3] - The gold-silver ratio is declining from approximately 85 to 80, suggesting an increase in market risk appetite and a shift towards more aggressive assets like silver [4] Group 3: Industrial Demand for Silver - Silver demand is surging due to significant growth in the photovoltaic industry (over 30% year-on-year) and a 15% increase in demand from electric vehicle battery applications [4] - The combination of industrial demand and the perception of silver being undervalued is fueling the current bullish trend in the silver market [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For gold investors, a patient approach is advised, utilizing a strategy of light positions and opportunistic trading around the $1900-$1910 range, with close monitoring of potential breakout points above $1950 [5] - Silver investors are encouraged to consider buying on dips, particularly around the $24.2-$24.5 support level, with protective stop-losses set below $24 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a stable and volatile trend after a round of rapid decline and full release of negative sentiment, with the price finding support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the rebound of domestic coal futures offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [6]. - The prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend under the dominance of bearish sentiment due to the decision of OPEC+ to continue significant production expansion in September [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 63.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.40%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.47% [9]. - As of August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 9.22 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.76 percentage points [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity [9]. - In July 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.5%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.3 percentage points but still in the expansion range [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10] Methanol - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a slight weekly increase of 0.26%, a monthly decrease of 3.28%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.46%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9302 million tons, a weekly increase of 31,300 tons, a significant monthly decrease of 56,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 312,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.55%, a slight weekly increase of 0.59%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.72%, a slight weekly increase of 0.41%; the acetic acid operating rate was 88.79%, a weekly decrease of 4.16%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.84%, a weekly decrease of 2.32% [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a monthly decrease of 2.67 percentage points. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 87 yuan/ton, a significant weekly increase of 249 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 21 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a significant weekly increase of 63,200 tons, a significant monthly increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 293,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 30,900 tons, a significant monthly decrease of 63,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,100 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a weekly decrease of 5 and a decrease of 72 compared to the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 30,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year decrease of 116,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant weekly decrease of 3.029 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.659 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.006 million barrels, a weekly increase of 453,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a weekly increase of 235,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 96.9%, a weekly increase of 1.5 percentage points, a monthly increase of 2.2 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.4 percentage points [13] - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 156,023 contracts, a weekly increase of 2,692 contracts and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared to the June average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 249,973 contracts, a significant weekly increase of 22,728 contracts and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared to the June average [14] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,500 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 14,550 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,420 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,388 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | +32 yuan/ton | +8 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 475.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.5 yuan/barrel | 501.0 yuan/barrel | - 4.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.6 yuan/barrel | +4.4 yuan/barrel | [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, this week's supply stabilized while demand decreased slightly, with the fundamentals still under some pressure. However, the profitability rate of downstream steel mills improved month - on - month, and the molten iron output showed certain resilience. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction. In the short term, coke futures may fluctuate widely, and future market focus will gradually return to the actual supply of coking coal [5][33]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending August 1, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 tons, flat week - on - week and 0.6 tons higher than last year. The supply from Mongolia increased rapidly. The fundamentals of coking coal did not improve significantly. After the previous upward drivers were realized, the coking coal futures corrected from high levels. In the long - term, after the capacity optimization and upgrade of the coal industry, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Information - The land market in core Chinese cities showed a trend of "decreasing volume but improving quality" from January to July. The average premium rate of land transactions in first - and second - tier core cities exceeded 10%. The average transaction floor price of residential land in 300 cities increased by 34.3% year - on - year, and the land transfer revenue increased by more than 20% [8]. - On August 4, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market rose by 50 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For coke, the current price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port's FOB was 1,420 yuan/ton, up 7.58% week - on - week; at Qingdao Port's ex - warehouse, it was 1,400 yuan/ton, up 1.45% week - on - week [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 11.65% week - on - week; Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,490 yuan/ton, up 1.36% week - on - week; Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, up 10.00% week - on - week [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,615.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. The trading volume was 30,451, and the open interest was 25,782 [13]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,141.0 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.33%. The trading volume was 1,908,758, and the open interest was 487,977 [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - There are charts showing the inventory of coke (including independent coking plants, steel mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory), the inventory of coking coal (including mine mouth, ports, steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washery production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] 3.5 Future Outlook - Coke futures are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the market will gradually focus on the actual supply of coking coal [5][33]. - After the correction of coking coal futures, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise in the long - term [6][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the Sino - US trade talks have made new progress, and the two sides have extended the tariff suspension period by 90 days. Due to previous policies falling short of expectations and over - hyped recent expectations, some long - position funds may take early profits. The market focuses on anti - involution in this meeting. If there is more incremental information, the anti - involution hype may continue. After the Dalian Commodity Exchange lowered the trading limit of coking coal on Friday, the coking coal market saw a sharp fall at night, with signs of long - position stampede. Short - term macro uncertainties increase, and the market is likely to experience significant volatility. If long - position investors leave the market on a large scale, coking coal may be weak in the future; if there is a stalemate between long and short positions and the market can oscillate at a high level, coking coal is still expected to reach new highs after the emotional release [4] - In terms of coking coal, the mine - end production recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high, and spot transactions remain at a high level. Mines' inventories are continuously transferred to downstream. Although steel mills' replenishment speed is slower than that of coke enterprises, it has slightly accelerated this week. For coke, the third and fourth rounds of spot price increases are expected to be quickly implemented next week, and the expectation of further price increases remains. Although blast furnace profits have slightly declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and coke demand remains resilient [5] - Based on the recent trends and positions of coking coal, from the 21st to the 22nd, the exit of short - position investors accelerated the market, and from the 23rd to the 25th, long - position investors further pushed up the market. It is possible that the long - position investors who entered the market after the 23rd are new short - term funds and are most likely to be stopped out. Currently, the price has basically returned to the gap area on the 23rd, erasing the gains from last Wednesday to Friday. Recently, the coal - coke market rebounded, and it is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and JM09 lightly and make further decisions after the outcome of the long - short tug - of war becomes clear [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 86.9% (+0.83), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 62.31% (-0.54) [2] - Demand: The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [2] 3.1.2 Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased: The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 2.7844 million tons (-606,300 tons), and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 1.7561 million tons (-159,300 tons) [2] - Downstream inventory increased: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.9951 million tons (+84,100 tons), and the inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 8.4121 million tons (+510,200 tons). Port inventory was 2.9234 million tons (-291,600 tons) [2] 3.1.3 Spot Price and Spread - Spot price: Mongolian 5 coking coal was reported at 1,150 yuan/ton (-93 yuan), and the active contract was reported at 1,120.5 yuan/ton (+20 yuan) [2] - Basis: The basis was +49.5 yuan/ton (-113 yuan), and the September - January spread was -94 yuan/ton (-14.5 yuan) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - Supply: The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises was reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [3] - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.81% (-0.08), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons (-21,000 tons) [3] 3.2.2 Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased: The inventory of 230 coke enterprises was 501,200 tons (-54,300 tons) [3] - Downstream inventory increased: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3998 million tons (+9,900 tons), and port inventory was 1.9813 million tons (-9,800 tons) [3] 3.2.3 Spot Price, Spread and Profit - Spot price: The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1,420 yuan/ton (+50 yuan), and the active contract was reported at 1,633 yuan/ton (+24.5 yuan) [3] - Basis: The basis was -106 yuan/ton (+29.26 yuan), and the September - January spread was -57.5 yuan/ton (-15.5 yuan) [3] - Profit: Although blast furnace profits have slightly declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and coke demand remains resilient [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is bullish, and for coking coal is also bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, macro uncertainties increase and market sentiment fluctuates greatly. Next week, the market is likely to experience significant volatility. If bulls exit en masse, coking coal may be weak in the coming period; if there is a stalemate between bulls and bears and the price can oscillate at a high level, coking coal is still expected to reach a new high after the sentiment is released [4] - For coking coal, the mine - end production resumes slowly, downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high, and spot transactions remain at a high level. Mines' inventory is continuously transferred to downstream. For coke, the fourth round of price increase is likely to be implemented soon, and there are still expectations for further price increases. The demand for coke remains resilient [3][4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures - Spot is strong, futures decline. Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is reported at 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1,100.5 yuan/ton (-158.5). The basis is +119.5 yuan/ton (+118.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -79.5 yuan/ton (-20) [1] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand increase slightly. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.9% (+0.83), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.31% (-0.54), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.61% (+0.71) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream destocks, downstream restocks. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 278.44 million tons (-60.63), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 175.61 million tons (-15.93). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 799.51 million tons (+8.41), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 841.21 million tons (+51.02), and the port inventory is 292.34 million tons (-29.16) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures - Spot prices are expected to rise, futures decline. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1,370 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the fourth round of price increase is likely to be implemented soon. The active contract is reported at 1,763 yuan/ton (+28). The basis is -135 yuan/ton (+154.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -42 yuan/ton (+6) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Demand remains high, supply increases slightly. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.61% (+0.71). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.81% (-0.08), and the average daily pig iron output is 242.23 million tons (-0.21) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream destocks, downstream restocks. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 50.12 million tons (-5.43), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 639.98 million tons (+0.99), and the port inventory is 198.13 million tons (-0.98) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - Hold J09 and JM09 long positions lightly this week and wait for the price to stabilize before re - entering the market [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The logic of the market is the contradiction between macro and industry, with intensified long - short game [3] - Overseas macro: The US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff, and the US - EU is expected to implement 15%. Tariff negotiations are going smoothly, and overseas macro is biased towards maintaining high - interest rates in the short term. Domestic macro: The speculative atmosphere of coal and coke is strong. The exchange has warned of risks and restricted positions, causing the supply - side trading to cool down in the short term, and the demand side is waiting for the Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, steel inventory is low, steel mill profits expand, and the decline of hot metal is slow, with poor negative feedback transmission [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Data - On July 25, 2025, the hot metal supply was 242.2 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.6 tons), scrap steel supply was 46.5 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2.3 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 tons), scrap steel demand was 51.8 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1.3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.2 tons), and scrap steel inventory was 459.7 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 4.4 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21.0 tons). For other steel products such as rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate, detailed supply, demand, inventory, and price data are also provided [4] 2. Macro - level Information - Overseas: The US - Japan and US - EU tariffs are confirmed, and the short - term tendency is to maintain high - interest rates. There are contradictions in the US regarding employment, inflation, and manufacturing return, which may damage the US dollar's credit. Domestic: The exchange's risk warning and position restrictions have cooled down the supply - side trading in the short term. The market is waiting for the Politburo meeting. There have been some real - estate favorable policies and debt - replacement measures in previous meetings [5][8][9] 3. Rebar Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3430 yuan/ton (+180), the main futures price was 3356 yuan/ton (+209), the main - contract basis was 74 yuan/ton (-29), and the 10 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton (+1). The spread is approaching the risk - free window, and reverse arbitrage should stop profiting and exit [14] - **Demand**: New - home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains low. Demand is in the off - season, and indicators such as cement shipments are seasonally declining [15][18][19] - **Inventory**: Steel inventory is at a low level and not accumulating, indicating low pressure on the industrial chain [21] - **Production Profit**: The "anti - involution" trading has led to a slight expansion of profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 427 yuan/ton (+103), the main - contract profit was 331 yuan/ton (+60), and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 293 yuan/ton (+156) [27][31] 4. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3500 yuan/ton (+160), the main futures price was 3507 yuan/ton (+197), the main - contract basis was - 7 yuan/ton (-37), and the 10 - 01 spread was - 11 yuan/ton (-1). Reverse arbitrage should stop profiting and exit [36] - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the white - goods production has entered the off - season. The internal - external price spread has converged, and the export window has closed [37][40][41] - **Inventory and Production**: In the off - season, demand slightly exceeds expectations, and the inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils has slowed down. Production has declined [43][45] - **Production Profit**: The "anti - involution" trading has led to a slight expansion of profits. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 326 yuan/ton (+80), and the main - contract profit was 332 yuan/ton (+48) [47][50] 5. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunity of the expanding cold - hot spread [51] 6. Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil are provided, including differences between cities such as Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin [60][61][62] 7. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - Detailed seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates are provided [64][65]

Group 1 - The US stock market is experiencing historic breakthroughs driven by strong corporate earnings and optimism regarding US-EU trade agreements [1][4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have set new closing records, continuing the current bull market despite rising valuation concerns [4] - 78% of S&P companies have reported earnings that exceeded expectations, with significant contributions from the energy and technology sectors [7] Group 2 - European markets experienced volatility due to comments from President Trump, which initially triggered a sharp decline [1][4] - The Euro fell by 0.38% against the US dollar following statements suggesting only a 50% probability of a US-EU agreement, leading to a 0.6% drop in the Stoxx 600 index [4] - The automotive sector in Europe faced a 1.5% decline, influenced by the current 25% tariff on EU cars exported to the US [4] Group 3 - The yield curve for US Treasury bonds is flattening, with the 2-year yield rising by 2 basis points and the 10-year yield falling by 1 basis point to 4.15% [5] - The dollar index has seen consecutive gains, but the weekly performance indicates ongoing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [5] Group 4 - The market is at a crossroads regarding Federal Reserve policy, with bullish sentiment driven by corporate earnings resilience, rate cut expectations, and potential trade breakthroughs [6] - Concerns persist regarding high valuations, with the market at over the 90th percentile historically, and a significant drop in commodity prices indicating shrinking demand [6] - Upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve meeting, US-EU negotiations, and July non-farm payroll data, are expected to influence market direction [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant surge, approaching the 3600-point mark, driven by massive capital inflow and heightened market enthusiasm, but underlying uncertainties remain [3][10]. Market Performance - A record trading volume of 9 trillion yuan has propelled the Shanghai Composite Index to 3581 points, just shy of 3600 points, following a strong rebound from an intraday low of 3547 points [5]. - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 0.83%, indicating broad market participation [6]. Sector Rotation - The market is witnessing rapid sector rotation, with significant movements in various sectors including infrastructure, coal mining, and engineering machinery, while previously underperforming sectors like liquor are also showing signs of recovery [6][8]. - Infrastructure stocks, particularly those related to the Yajiang Hydropower project, have become market favorites, with nearly 30 out of 35 related stocks hitting the daily limit [8]. Investment Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by a mix of optimism and caution, as investors speculate on the potential for a bull market while remaining wary of high-level corrections [11][13]. - The financial sector, including banks and insurance, has shown relative weakness, suggesting that major funds have not fully entered the market yet, which raises questions about the potential for a breakthrough above 3600 points [11]. Technical Analysis - The market has seen four consecutive days of volume increases, closing at its highest point, indicating a strong upward trend, although approaching the 3600-point level may increase selling pressure [10]. - The ongoing battle between bullish and bearish sentiments is intensifying, with 3600 points becoming a critical battleground for market participants [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. It will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene ethylene, in the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [15][17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend [19]. - For polypropylene, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [22]. - For PTA, under the situation of expected continuous inventory accumulation and weakening demand, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, although the fundamentals are weak, it is expected to be strong in the short term due to unexpected events [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $0.98, or 1.47%, to $67.62; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $0.94, or 1.37%, to $69.65; INE main crude oil futures fell by 0.60 yuan, or 0.12%, to 516.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.23 million barrels to 12.23 million barrels, a 1.92% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 9.06 million barrels, a 7.00% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 23.39 million barrels, a 5.35% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.78 million barrels to 44.68 million barrels, a 3.82% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 17 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate continued to decline, and the profit slightly decreased but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas device start - up returned to the mid - high level, and the market reaction to overseas supply disruptions was over, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load rebounded this week, but the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the start - up rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid falling and those of chlorides and MTBE rising, showing overall weakness [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1743 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The start - up rate of compound fertilizers bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent start - up rate will continue to rise, supporting the demand for urea. Export containerization continued, and port inventory continued to increase [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously, showing strong momentum. The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons, or 0.02%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a 0.25% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a 0.45% decrease. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 507,500 (+23,000) tons [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The rubber price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4955 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 118 (- 3) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a 0.5% decrease; the start - up rate of the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a 1.6% decrease; the start - up rate of the ethylene method was 71%, a 2.5% increase. The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.1%, a 1.8% decrease. Factory inventory was 382,000 tons (- 5,000), and social inventory was 624,000 tons (+32,000) [12]. 3.6 Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space [15]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The start - up rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the start - up rate of benzene ethylene continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene ethylene increased significantly, and the overall start - up rate of the three S products in the demand side decreased due to the off - season [15][17]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The global trade policy uncertainty has returned due to the US tariff policy. The spot price of polyethylene fell, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate was 78.84%, a 0.01% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 529,300 tons, a 36,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 57,700 tons, a 2,900 - ton decrease. The average downstream start - up rate was 38%, a 0.13% increase [19]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The profit of Shandong local refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal supply of propylene returning [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The downstream start - up rate fluctuated seasonally downward. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 26 yuan to 6742 yuan, and the PX CFR fell by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was 119 yuan (- 41), and the 9 - 1 spread was 134 yuan (+36) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The load in China was 81.3%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 73.6%, a 0.5% decrease. Some devices had load adjustments. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 117,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 22,000 tons. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 165,000 tons [22]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 8 yuan to 4714 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 10 yuan to 4730 yuan. The basis was 24 yuan (+13), and the 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (+16) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The terminal texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [23]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4372 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 37 yuan to 4437 yuan. The basis was 62 yuan (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 17 yuan (+15) [24]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 45,000 tons, and the port inventory was 553,000 tons, a 27,000 - ton decrease [24].