港交所股價在10月9日報457.2元，上升2.74%。從技術走勢觀察，股價目前正處於關鍵的抉擇時刻，短期均線MA10位於443.36元，與MA30的444.17元及 MA60的439.92元形成緊密排列，顯示市場正在尋找明確方向。當前價位在關鍵技術區間內運行，上方正面臨459元的阻力考驗，下方則有439元的支撐防 線。 從技術指標分析，港交所的RSI讀數為51，處於中性區域，反映市場情緒相對平衡。多個震盪指標呈現溫和偏多的訊號，其中隨機震盪指標、動量震盪指 標、MACD及保力加通道均發出買入訊號，這種技術指標的集體轉強值得投資者關注。然而，ADX指標仍顯示趨勢強度有限，意味著突破行情需要更多動 能配合。 牛熊證方面，看好的投資者可考慮摩通牛證56785，提供15.7倍實際槓桿，收回價426元，溢價相對較低；或摩通牛證66112，提供14倍實際槓桿，收回價422 元，同樣具有較低溢價的優勢。看淡的投資者則可關注法興熊證60816，提供19.9倍實際槓桿，收回價470元，兼具高實際槓桿與低溢價特點；或瑞銀熊證 60541，提供19.5倍實際槓桿，收回價470元，溢價相對較低。 | | | 支持位與阻力位分析顯示， ...

2025年9月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market, represented by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388), is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with technical indicators sending mixed signals [1] - As of 13:15, the stock price is at HKD 435.8, down 1.49%, oscillating near the 10-day moving average of HKD 446.36 and the 30-day moving average of HKD 444.37, while remaining above the 60-day moving average of HKD 435.69 [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 46, indicating a potential oversold condition, while the MACD and Ichimoku indicators suggest a bearish trend, indicating an imminent decision on short-term direction [1] Technical Analysis - Key support levels are identified between HKD 418 and HKD 428, while resistance levels are at HKD 450 and a stronger resistance at HKD 466 [1] - Despite a modest 5.5% fluctuation over five days, the overall strength of technical indicators reaches an 8-level buy signal, suggesting a potential breakout momentum [1] - The narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate that the market is in a state of consolidation, poised for a breakout [1] Derivative Market Performance - Recent performance in the warrants market shows significant gains, with the recommended Morgan Stanley bear certificate (60987) rising 27% within two days despite a 2.07% drop in the underlying stock [3] - The Bank of China put option (19860) also recorded an 11% increase during the same period, highlighting the potential for significant returns from bearish products during market volatility [3] Investment Strategies - For bullish positions, UBS call options (16698) offer a high leverage of 17.6 times, while Societe Generale call options (16900) provide even higher leverage at 18 times, both with an exercise price set at HKD 484.08 [6] - Bearish strategies can focus on Bank of China put options (19860) and UBS put options (19854), both maintaining low implied volatility and offering leverage above 7 times [8] - Morgan Stanley bear certificate (66719) has a redemption price of HKD 473, noted for its low premium and high actual leverage, while UBS bear certificate (60541) strikes a good balance between leverage and premium [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].

Report Title - "Stock Index Futures Daily Report" released on September 22, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The stock market was oscillating strongly today. In terms of index style, small and medium - cap stock indices were dominant again. The trading volume of the two markets narrowed to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The phone call between the Chinese and US leaders sent a positive signal. The volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures declined today, affected by the decline of most futures contract basis and the listing of new contracts. Recently, the news was relatively calm and lacked unexpected information. The market was mainly a game between bulls and bears. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, some funds might leave the market to deal with uncertain risks, resulting in a decline in both spot and futures trading volume and a weakening of market trading enthusiasm. However, supported by the expectation of favorable policies, the downside space of the stock index was limited. It was expected that the stock index would continue to oscillate in the short term [4] Market Review - The stock index oscillated strongly today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.46%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2023.47 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IH rose with increasing volume, while the rest rose with decreasing volume [2] Important Information - The Chinese and US leaders had a phone call. According to the Global Times, Trump said the call was "very productive", and the two leaders would meet during the APEC meeting and he planned to visit China early next year. The 5 - year and 1 - year LPR quotes remained unchanged in September. The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" series of themes at 3 p.m. [3][6] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to mainly hold positions and wait and see [5] Futures Market Observation | Index | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday gain/loss (%) | 0.30 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.0121 | 5.0813 | 11.4627 | 21.3295 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 5.2955 | - 1.6499 | - 7.2929 | - 10.545 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.6208 | 9.9659 | 23.8802 | 35.4212 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 0.0745 | 0.3869 | - 0.743 | - 1.0197 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index gain/loss (%) | 0.22 | | Shenzhen Component Index gain/loss (%) | 0.67 | | Ratio of rising and falling stocks | 0.69 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 21214.83 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (billion yuan) | - 2023.47 | [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, gold prices attempted to break through $3700 but ultimately fell, leading to market skepticism about further increases and concerns about a significant downturn [2][4] - The article emphasizes that fluctuations in gold prices are normal, especially after a substantial increase of $400, and highlights the importance of key support and resistance levels, particularly the $3610 and $3650 marks [2][4] - The $3700 level is identified as a critical resistance point, and if gold cannot maintain above this level, it may enter a consolidation phase where both bullish and bearish opportunities exist [2][4] Group 2 - The analysis suggests a short position in the range of $3690-$3695, with a stop-loss set at $3710, indicating a focus on the potential for price movement within the $3675-$3670 range [5] - The article notes that the previous high of $3706 is significant for determining the continuation of the upward trend, and that profit-taking could occur due to market sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The concept of "trend" in the market is often misunderstood, with many confusing short-term movements for actual trends, which are long-term developments [1][2][4] - The market operates on the principle of "force," where the strength of either bulls or bears determines the trend direction, and understanding this is crucial for making profitable decisions [1][10] - A stock typically goes through a cycle of accumulation, rise, consolidation, and distribution, and recognizing where a stock is in this cycle is essential for trend analysis [1][6] Group 2 - Short-term trends are often misinterpreted; true trends require analysis over longer periods, such as weekly or monthly charts, to avoid false signals [2][4][8] - The behavior of market participants during downtrends is characterized by panic selling, leading to further price declines, and understanding this can help avoid poor investment decisions [10][12] - Successful trading strategies involve identifying and operating within defined price ranges during consolidation phases, rather than attempting to catch bottoms in downtrends [8][14]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with major indices reaching new highs before a collective decline in the afternoon, indicating a potential market correction after a period of rapid growth [2][6] - As of September 17, the margin trading balance reached a historical record of 2.4054 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.51% of the A-share market's circulating market value, still below the peak of 4.73% in 2015 [2][3] - The sectors attracting leveraged funds include electronics, power equipment, non-bank financials, and computers, with significant net purchases observed in these industries [4][5] Group 2 - The number of individual investors in the A-share market has been increasing, rising from 7.6148 million on September 1 to 7.6611 million by September 17 [4] - The trading volume on September 18 reached 3.13 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 758.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating heightened market activity [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the market will continue to experience a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with high-valuation tech stocks facing pressure in the absence of continuous easing support [6][9] Group 3 - The most favored stocks by leveraged funds include popular names such as Dongfang Caifu, China Ping An, and BYD, with financing balances exceeding 24 billion yuan for some [5] - The sectors with the highest net purchases from September 1 to 17 include power equipment, electronics, and non-bank financials, while the defense industry saw significant net selling [4][5] - The overall sentiment remains optimistic for the long-term outlook of the A-share market, supported by factors such as economic stability, low valuations, and increasing investor returns through dividends and buybacks [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is under inventory pressure, with increased contradictions in the building materials fundamentals and pressured prices, while the plate demand remains resilient, and the price is relatively strong. After the Fed's interest rate cut, policies and expectations support steel prices. The iron ore market has significant growth in global shipments, a slight decline in arrivals, high pig iron production, and falling steel mill profits. The coking coal production resumes slowly, and the double - coking spot rebounds. The power coal market has rising prices in the producing areas due to increased demand, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and supply - abundant in the long - term [1][3][5][7] Market Analysis Steel - Futures and spot: Steel futures prices fluctuated. Spot steel sales were generally weak, with better low - price transactions. The national building materials sales volume was 10,270 tons. Steel production and inventory increased. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials face increased fundamental contradictions and price pressure due to inventory. Plate demand is resilient, and prices are relatively strong. Fed's interest rate cut, anti - involution policies, holiday restocking expectations, and environmental protection policies support steel prices [1] Iron Ore - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated. In the spot market, prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports had slight fluctuations. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 1.265 million tons, a 9.25% decrease from the previous day. The forward spot trading volume was 965,000 tons (7 transactions), a 21.54% decrease, with 545,000 tons from mines. - Supply and demand logic: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly, arrivals decreased slightly, pig iron production was high, and steel mill profits continued to decline. Considering the holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption is resilient. Attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on arrivals and steel mills' pre - holiday restocking rhythm [3] Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - Futures and spot: Double - coking futures main contracts fluctuated. After the coke price cut, coking profits shrank, and production was relatively stable. This week, coking coal production growth slowed, inventory was basically decreasing, some mines were affected by environmental protection and over - production inspections, and Mongolian coal imports remained high. - Supply and demand logic: For coke, after the price cut, production in most areas was stable except in Tangshan. Downstream demand was resilient. For coking coal, downstream restocking demand was released before the National Day, inventory decreased continuously. With the Fed's interest rate cut and domestic policy expectations, double - coking is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term [5] Thermal Coal - Futures and spot: In the producing areas, coal prices continued to rise. Demand from the chemical and cement industries and civilian demand increased. With the rise in port prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of platforms and coal yards increased, and most mines had more coal - pulling trucks and a strong willingness to raise prices. In the port market, sentiment was good, some traders were reluctant to sell due to high shipping costs and tight resources, and prices of some high - quality coal varieties increased. The price decline of domestic coal narrowed, imported high - calorie coal was stable, and low - calorie coal prices rebounded, narrowing the price gap between domestic and imported coal. - Supply and demand logic: Production in the producing areas is gradually recovering, and daily power coal consumption is decreasing. The price will fluctuate in the short - term, and the supply will be abundant in the long - term. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7] Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [4] Double - Coking - Coking coal: Oscillation - Coke: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a significant shift, with a notable withdrawal of long positions and a substantial outflow of funds, indicating a change in market sentiment towards this once-booming sector [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - In the past three weeks, the holding volume and capital flow in the lithium carbonate futures market have changed, with long contracts being quietly closed and a considerable amount of capital leaving the market [1]. - As of September 16, 2025, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has dropped to 71,683 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.07%, a month-on-month decline of 11.94%, and a year-on-year drop of 8.33% [1]. Market Sentiment - A large-scale exit of long positions has been observed, with one trading supervisor reporting a 15% loss from closing their remaining long positions, which they deemed a wise decision compared to the risks of holding [2][6]. - On September 10, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures opened significantly lower, reaching a minimum of 68,600 yuan/ton, nearly hitting the limit down, and closing with a drop of over 5% [2][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The anticipated resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine owned by CATL has heightened market expectations, leading to a shift in supply dynamics [3][12]. - The price of lithium carbonate has been affected by a decrease in production costs, with the cost of purchasing spodumene for lithium carbonate production dropping from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 65,000 yuan/ton [13]. - In August, China's lithium carbonate production reached a record high of 85,200 tons, contributing to increased supply and downward pressure on prices [14]. Demand Trends - Demand for lithium carbonate is showing signs of weakness, particularly in traditional sectors, with a notable decline in sales of mid-to-low-end electric vehicles [15]. - Despite a slight increase in production from leading battery manufacturers, actual purchasing intentions remain weak, leading to a cautious inventory strategy among companies [15][16]. Market Adjustments - Following the withdrawal of long positions, the market is seeking a new price equilibrium, with expectations that lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate between 65,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton in the near term [18]. - Companies are adjusting their strategies, with some integrating upstream resources and others entering trial production phases for new lithium projects [19]. Technological Innovations - New technologies such as lithium recycling and direct lithium extraction are gaining attention, with companies exploring ways to reduce costs further [21]. - Despite short-term price adjustments, the long-term outlook for the lithium industry remains positive, with projected annual demand growth of over 15% in the next five years [21].