能化板块走势
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芳烃日报:美伊和谈现分歧,偏强走势-20260331
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 11:13
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation has further intensified, and crude oil has strengthened. The overall energy and chemical sector has strong support. Although the energy and chemical sector has had a significant price increase previously and has digested some of the positive news, in the later stage, it should still be treated as relatively strong after a correction. Today, the aromatics market pulled back from its high intraday. Attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average on the daily K - line level. The current situation between the US and Iran and the trend of crude oil should be closely tracked, and the short - term risk is relatively high [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The 600,000 - ton Gulei plant was shut down for maintenance, and the load of individual plants was adjusted. The styrene output decreased by 3.12% to 360,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.32% to 71.79% [1] - Demand side: The operating rates of styrene downstream industries changed differently. The EPS operating rate decreased by 0.98% to 57.78%, the PS operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.7%, the ABS operating rate decreased by 2.1% to 67.4%, the UPR operating rate increased by 3% to 38%, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 75.65% [1] - Inventory: The styrene factory inventory decreased by 7.70% to 191,900 tons, the East China port inventory decreased by 10.88% to 156,500 tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 3.77% to 51,000 tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Iranian military attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker full of oil in the anchorage area of Dubai Port, causing damage to the hull and a fire, marking an escalation of shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4, with an expected value of 50.1 and a previous value of 49. In March, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. After running below 50% for two consecutive months, it returned to the expansion range, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity [2] - US media reported that Trump was willing to end the Iran war with the Strait of Hormuz closed [2] - Iran insisted that it had not negotiated with the US since the war broke out. The Iranian parliament approved the collection of tolls for the strait, which must be paid in the Iranian local currency [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The Middle East situation has further intensified, and crude oil has strengthened. The overall energy and chemical sector has strong support. After a previous significant price increase and partial digestion of positive news, it should still be treated as relatively strong after a correction. The aromatics market pulled back from its high intraday. Attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average on the daily K - line level. The current situation between the US and Iran and the trend of crude oil should be closely tracked, and the short - term risk is relatively high [3]