1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is in an upward - fluctuating stage, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. The logic is that with the intensification of the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the United States, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the shipments from the Middle East have almost stopped. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the supply of imports from the Middle East will face significant challenges, leading to an increase in the global spot price. Additionally, with the attacks on relevant oil and gas production facilities such as the new oil fields in South Vietnam and Ras Tanura, the long - term reduction in Middle East supply will keep the propane supply - demand in North Asia in a tight pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Core Views and Strategies - **Contract and View**: The contract is pg2605. The view is that LPG is in an upward - fluctuating stage, and the price center is expected to rise later [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Upstream Refineries**: With relatively high inventory and concerns about LPG price drops, refineries are advised to buy put options on PG2605 with an exercise price of 6000 [5]. - **Import Traders**: With relatively high inventory and concerns about LPG price drops, they are advised to buy put options on PG2605 with an exercise price of 6000 [5]. - **Downstream Third - level Stations**: To prevent a significant price increase and rising procurement costs, they are advised to buy the PG2605 contract at the market price for hedging [5]. 3.2 Weekly Important Price Changes and News - **Price Changes**: - **Futures Prices**: The prices of futures contracts such as PG2605, PG2606, etc. showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous period. For example, the price of PG2605 on March 19, 2026, was 6283.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 613 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 681 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [10]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various spot products also changed. For example, the price of imported gas in Guangzhou increased by 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and the previous week [10]. - **News**: - Iran's South Pars energy facilities were attacked by Israel, and Iran counter - attacked the oil and natural gas facilities of neighboring countries. - Saudi Aramco has cancelled the LR6 supply for April. The production at Juaymah is not expected to resume before mid - April. - Aramco is expected to announce the April CP at the end of March, and the first - round recommendation is expected on March 25. - The loading terminal in Qatar was attacked, and the supply of shipped goods in the Middle East is expected to be interrupted for a long time. A US supplier declared force majeure, increasing concerns about the supply in the Far East [12]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Domestic Device Maintenance Plan**: Multiple refineries and chemical plants in China are in the process of maintenance, including catalytic units, whole - plant maintenance, etc. For example, Dalian Petrochemical is in the process of whole - plant maintenance, with an expected loss of 1800 tons per day [21]. - **Weekly Marginal Supply - Demand Balance**: - **Supply**: From March 6 - 12 to March 13 - 19, the domestic supply decreased slightly from 55.15 tons to 53.67 tons, and the import volume increased from 60.9 tons to 64.6 tons. The total supply increased from 116.1 tons to 118.3 tons [24]. - **Demand**: The demand from MTBE, alkylation, and PDH also changed slightly. For example, the demand from MTBE increased from 21.8 tons to 22.0 tons [24]. - **Downstream Chemical Profit and Device Operation**: - **Device Operation Rate**: The operating rate of PDH decreased, while the operating rates of alkylation and MTBE in some regions increased. For example, the national average operating rate of MTBE external - sales manufacturers increased by 0.57 percentage points to 69.51% [41]. - **Profit**: The profits of different downstream industries also showed different trends. For example, the profit of traditional MTBE devices and alkylation oil changed compared to the previous period [35][39]. 3.4 US Market - **North American Propane and Propylene Supply**: In the week of March 13, 2026, the production of propane/propylene was 2924 thousand barrels per day, the import was 119 thousand barrels per day, and the export was 1879 thousand barrels per day. Compared with the previous week, the production increased by 62 thousand barrels per day, the import decreased by 17 thousand barrels per day, and the export decreased by 156 thousand barrels per day [101]. - **North American Chemical and Combustion Demand**: The demand in different sectors such as the industrial sector and the residential and commercial sectors also changed. For example, the consumption of propane and propylene in the industrial sector was 473 thousand barrels per day in the week of March 13, 2026 [101]. 3.5 Arbitrage Spreads and Weekly Import - Export Data Statistics - **Arbitrage Spreads**: - The propane arbitrage spreads from the US to the Far East and Northwest Europe showed different trends. For example, the propane arbitrage spread from the US to the Far East on March 20, 2026, was at a certain level [125]. - The propane spreads between Europe and the US, and between the Far East and the US also changed [126]. - **Import - Export Data**: - The imports and exports of propane/propylene in the US also changed. For example, the import and export volumes of propane/propylene in the week of March 13, 2026, were at certain levels [128]. 3.6 North American Region Inventory - **Propane/Propylene Inventory**: The propane/propylene inventory in North America was 72485 thousand barrels in the week of March 13, 2026, an increase of 810 thousand barrels compared to the previous week [101]. - **NGPLs/LRGs Inventory**: The inventory of NGPLs/LRGs also showed a certain trend [154]. 3.7 Asian Market - **Swap Prices and Inter - variety Spreads**: - The prices of various swaps such as Saudi CP propane swap, FEI swap, etc. changed. For example, the price of Saudi CP propane swap on March 20, 2026, was at a certain level [195]. - The spreads between different varieties such as FEI - CP, FEI04 - FEI05, etc. also changed [196][198]. - **Middle East Weekly Shipment Tracking**: - The shipments from the Middle East to different regions such as China, India, and Indonesia showed different trends. For example, the shipments from the Middle East to China in the week of April 20, 2026, were at a certain level [223]. 3.8 European Market - **Swap and Inter - variety Spreads**: - The price of European propane CIF swap and the propane inter - month spread showed different trends. For example, the price of European propane CIF swap on March 20, 2026, was at a certain level [256]. - **LPG Inventory in Europe**: - The LPG inventories in different regions of Europe such as Northwest Europe, Sweden, and Finland were at certain levels. For example, the LPG inventory in Northwest Europe in November 30, 2025, was 168 thousand tons [259].