液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-26 市场氛围尚可，现货价格普涨 市场分析 1、\t8月25日地区价格：山东市场，4500-4630；东北市场，3850-4130；华北市场，4100-4550；华东市场，4350-4480； 沿江市场，4610-4790；西北市场，4450-4500；华南市场，4528-4550。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷581美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，丁烷556美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4552元/吨，跌26元/吨，丁烷4356元/吨，跌25元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷573美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，丁烷546美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4489元/吨，跌26元/吨，丁烷4277元/吨，跌41元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 经历了较长时间的弱势行情，近期出现一些边际利多因素（国际运费上涨、化工需求改善），LPG市场情绪有所改 善，叠加内盘主力合约切换到2510，盘面有筑底反弹迹象。现货方面，山东、华南、华东等地价格普遍上涨，市 场氛围尚可，下游刚需 ...

| 国家期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月25日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | なな☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 上周原油市场上涨，布伦特10合约涨2.51%，SC10合约涨1.13%。特朗普分别与普京和泽连斯基会谈后，俄乌和 平协议的推动未如市场此前预期的顺利,8月以来乌克兰再次频繁袭击俄罗斯炼厂、输油管道及油码头等能源基础 设施，市场此前定价的俄乌地续缓和走向出现修正。此前我们谈到海外原油期货及期权净多持仓已达区间低位, 对利多地缘风险仍相对敏感,上周五特朗普谈及若两周内俄乌不举行直接会晤,将实施大规模制裁。短期油价单 边风险偏向上行， ...

来源：金融界 东华能源股份有限公司的主营业务是生产、销售液化气并提供相关售后服务。公司的主要产品是聚丙 烯、丙烯、氢气、合成氨等副产气、液化石油气。 最新一期业绩显示，2025年半年报，公司实现营业收入162.83亿元，同比13.28%；净利润6637.63万 元，同比-39.80%，销售毛利率3.89%。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)8东华能源35.1531.671.26140.59亿行业平均 11.9211.701.211843.13亿行业中值24.3533.091.6963.53亿1中国海油9.058.841.5612196.19亿2中国石油 9.609.661.0215904.52亿3广汇能源12.1011.641.24344.53亿4*ST新潮14.3614.201.26289.02亿5中国石化 19.5814.050.857068.60亿6洲际油气23.0820.511.1599.99亿7泰山石油25.6334.513.1434.28亿9康普顿 52.7464.443.0035.21亿10广聚能源61.9066.762.3064.73亿11和顺石油92.49103.151 ...

该行认为，昆仑能源上半年净利润跌4.4%至32亿元人民币，主要受天然气销量同比减少10.5%，以及液 化石油气(LPG)销售税前利润同比跌3%所拖累，抵销了液化天然气接收站及加工业务税前利润增长11% 的影响。虽然盈利下跌，中期息仍同比微升1.2%至0.166元人民币，派息率由去年的43%升至今年上半 年的45.5%。 报告指，暖冬及向母公司出租加气站等因素，导致昆仑能源的零售天然气销量由去年增长8.1%放缓至 今年上半年的增长2.2%。考虑到下半年车用天然气销量基数正常化、新建燃气项目贡献将于下半年加 速，以及天气条件可能转趋有利，公司目标全年零售天然气销量同比增长5%，即下半年同比增长 7.7%。 建银国际发布研报称，将昆仑能源(00135)2025至2027年核心盈利预测下调5%，并将目标价由8.7港元微 降至8.5港元，维持"跑赢大市"评级。 该行预期公司下半年单位毛利将持平，基于天然气销售结构回稳及整体采购成本疲弱，又料LNG加工 厂的利润持续改善，有助抵销全年燃气销售利润疲软的影响。 ...

市场分析 1、\t8月21日地区价格：山东市场，4420-4520；东北市场，3950-4130；华北市场，4280-4620；华东市场，4330-4480； 沿江市场，4480-4760；西北市场，4250-4350；华南市场，4478-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷579美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷556美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4544元/吨，涨2元/吨，丁烷4363元/吨，跌22元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷571美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷548美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4481元/吨，涨2元/吨，丁烷4301元/吨，跌21元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-22 盘面筑底反弹，但驱动仍有限 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 在PG盘面处于低位弱势运行的背景下，近期出现一些边际利多因素（国际运费上涨、化工需求改善），市场情绪有 所改善，叠加主力合约切换到2510，盘面有筑底反弹迹象。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economic data in August showed mixed results. The manufacturing and services PMIs rebounded unexpectedly, but the initial jobless claims increased more than expected. The inflation pressure rose, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down [2][13]. - In the commodity market, different products had different trends. For example, the price of动力煤was expected to be stable in the short - term, while the price of豆粕was affected by the US harvest and China's purchase policy [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, higher than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8. The services PMI and the composite PMI also showed good performance [12]. - The Fed's Hammack indicated that the FOMC might not cut interest rates in September. The gold price fluctuated and closed down. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price remained in a range - bound state [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, with a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The proportion of new energy increased significantly [15]. - A new policy - based financial instrument of 500 billion yuan might be launched, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [16]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate long positions in various stock indexes evenly [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU took further measures to finalize the trade agreement, including plans to reduce US tariffs on European cars [19]. - The Atlanta Fed President still expected one interest rate cut this year and paid attention to the labor market [20]. - The US manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace since 2022, which supported the US dollar index [21]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to rebound in the short - term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The services PMI also performed well [23]. - The Fed's Collins said that if the labor market deteriorated, it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short - term. Hammack did not support an interest rate cut in September [24][25]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the correction, as the fundamental data remains resilient [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 253 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on August 21, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan [27]. - Investment advice: If the short - term increase is high, it is recommended to pay attention to the short - hedging strategy [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of the week ending August 14, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations [29]. - The Pro Farmer field inspection indicated a potential bumper harvest of US soybeans. The market focused on whether China would resume purchasing US soybeans [30]. - Investment advice: The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the US field inspection results and China's purchase policy [30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indian importers started to buy palm oil from Colombia and Guatemala at a large discount [31]. - The Trump administration was expected to make a ruling on the exemption of small refineries [32]. - The palm oil export volume in Indonesia increased in June, and the inventory decreased slightly [33]. - Investment advice: After the adjustment, the US biodiesel policy might boost the price of the oil market. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to China's purchase of US soybeans [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main producing areas of red dates in Xinjiang were about to enter the sugar - increasing period. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 rose slightly [34][35]. - Investment advice: Due to the uncertainty of the new - season production, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and the pre - festival stocking in the main sales areas [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises were affected by equipment maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased slightly [36]. - Investment advice: The CS11 - C11 spread was expected to strengthen when the new - season production was determined [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 250,700 tons week - on - week as of August 21. The rebar inventory increased significantly [38]. - Investment advice: The steel price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait for the market to correct [39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processed corn decreased, and the consumption also decreased [40]. - Investment advice: The 11 and 01 contracts of corn futures were expected to decline. Hold short positions and pay attention to the weather [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The total social electricity consumption in July increased by 8.6% year - on - year [42]. - Investment advice: The peak of the coal price was expected to have passed, and the price was expected to be stable in the short - term [43]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The import of recycled steel raw materials in July was 21,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.10% and a year - on - year increase of 20.03% [44]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price was expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In July, China's cotton product export volume increased, but the export value decreased [45]. - India temporarily exempted cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30 [46]. - The Indian Cotton Association expected that the cotton production in 2025/26 would increase despite the decrease in the planting area [47]. - Investment advice: Before the new cotton was listed in China, the supply was tight, which supported the price in the short - term. However, the price was expected to be under pressure in the fourth quarter [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Trump reiterated that the US would not approve new photovoltaic or wind power projects [50]. - Investment advice: The futures price of polysilicon had strong support at 49,000 yuan/ton. It was recommended to take a bullish view on pull - backs and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity [51][52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export volume of primary polysiloxane in July decreased [53]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $39.48/ton. The domestic lead inventory decreased slightly [55]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $9.33/ton. The domestic zinc inventory decreased [57]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Zulu lithium project in Africa made a major breakthrough [59]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips and conduct positive arbitrage [60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Codelco in Chile lowered its 2025 copper production guidance [61]. - The S3 expansion project of First Quantum Minerals in Zambia was put into operation [62]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons on August 21 [64]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On August 21, the closing price of CEA was 70.92 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease [68]. - Investment advice: The CEA price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term [69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of LPG in China increased, and the inventory decreased slightly [70][71]. - Investment advice: The PG price was expected to be strong in the short - term [73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. Trump's statement on not approving new wind and photovoltaic projects might affect the demand for natural gas [74]. - Investment advice: The Nymex natural gas price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of August 21, the inventory of urea at Chinese ports increased by 37,000 tons week - on - week [76]. - Investment advice: The urea price was expected to be in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the new Indian tender and domestic demand [76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - Two PTA plants in South China were planned to be shut down for maintenance [77]. - Investment advice: The PTA price was expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On August 21, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted locally [80]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price was expected to be strong, but it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the price [81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market continued to be weak [82]. - Investment advice: The pulp price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term [85]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly stronger [86]. - Investment advice: The PVC price was expected to be weak in the short - term due to India's anti - dumping ruling [86]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - An East China styrene plant with a capacity of 320,000 tons/year was planned to be shut down for maintenance in September [87]. - Investment advice: The styrene price was expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand were expected to be balanced in September, but there was a risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories mostly increased [89]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new plant commissioning in late August and September [91]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of August 21, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers was 1.9108 million tons, with a 0.71% increase [92]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to short the soda ash price on rallies and pay attention to supply disruptions [92]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On August 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased [93]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of buying glass and shorting soda ash [94]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The global container ship order volume reached a record high, and the over - supply of shipping capacity was expected to last until 2029 [95]. - Investment advice: The container freight rate was expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [97].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, and the futures market is at a relatively low level. However, there are some marginal positive factors recently, such as the increase in international freight rates and the improvement in chemical demand. The significant rebound of the overseas market price may drive a marginal improvement in sentiment [1]. - The spot prices in the Yangtze River and South China regions increased slightly, while those in other regions remained stable. Some downstream buyers replenished their stocks at low prices, resulting in improved trading and a favorable market atmosphere [1]. - The overseas supply is high, and the domestic commercial volume decreased slightly, with the overall supply remaining abundant. The demand for combustion is weak in the summer heat, and downstream buyers make rigid - demand purchases. Meanwhile, the chemical demand has improved marginally, with the PDH operating rate reaching a high level this year, but the power for further strengthening is limited [1]. - The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market. One can pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities at low levels of PG, but the upside space is limited. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 20, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4420 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3950 - 4100 yuan/ton; North China market, 4280 - 4480 yuan/ton; East China market, 4280 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4480 - 4730 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4478 - 4580 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 578 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars/ton) and 558 dollars/ton (up 13 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4542 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton) and 4385 yuan/ton (up 104 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 570 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars/ton) and 550 dollars/ton (up 13 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4479 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton) and 4322 yuan/ton (up 103 yuan/ton) in RMB [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile. Pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities at low levels of PG, but the space is limited [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating indicated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The crude oil market maintains a volatile trend, and the price center still faces downward pressure in the medium term, but short - term long positions in futures and options are at a low level, and a strategy of buying out - of - the - money options is recommended for hedging [2] - The fuel oil system shows relatively stronger performance than SC, but the expected increase in heavy - quality resources from the Middle East still suppresses the market [3] - For asphalt, demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, and the price fluctuates weakly, with the 10 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] - The overseas LPG market is stabilizing, but the domestic market is under pressure, and the high - basis pattern can continue, with the market mainly in low - level fluctuations [5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC10 contract fell 0.47%. The market faces the pressure of accelerated inventory accumulation after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may shift down in the medium term. Short - term net long positions in overseas futures and options are at a low level. Hold out - of - the - money option double - buy strategies for hedging and then intervene in medium - term short positions after volatility increases [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil system is relatively stronger than SC, with cracking strengthening. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the inventory in Fujairah has decreased. The total arrival volume in August increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June. The high - sulfur is relatively under pressure, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has widened [3] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has a trend of increasing year - on - year decline. Road demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 8 - month sample refinery shipment increased by 8% year - on - year. The BU single - side price follows the SC's fluctuations, and the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas market is stabilizing. Domestic imports and refinery outflows are increasing, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the high - operating rate. The top pressure is strong under high - level warehouse receipts, and the market is mainly in low - level fluctuations [5]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

1、\t8月19日地区价格：山东市场，4420-4500；东北市场，3900-4110；华北市场，4280-4620；华东市场，4280-4480； 沿江市场，4480-4700；西北市场，4200-4300；华南市场，4428-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷568美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4462元/吨，跌29元/吨，丁烷4281元/吨，跌30元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷560美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4399元/吨，跌29元/吨，丁烷4219元/吨，跌29元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-20 产销温和，下游刚需为主 市场分析 LPG整体供需格局维持宽松，市场弱势运行，近期出现一些边际利好但尚不足以逆转氛围，昨日外盘价格再度出 现下跌。现货方面，昨日山东、西北及华南区域价格上涨，其余区域维稳，整体市场产销温和，下游刚需为主。 供应方面，海外供应整体维持充裕 ...