1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has changed due to the willingness of the US and Iran to end the war. Precious metals have risen significantly, and the risk - preference of the market has rebounded. However, the negotiation details may still fluctuate [1][12]. - The China's official manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, and the domestic economic sentiment has improved. The bond market is expected to be volatile [22][23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has declined due to the expected end of the war; the price of some agricultural products and metals is affected by supply and demand and other factors [5][36][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Schmid warns that inflation is a real risk and may stagnate near 3%. The US and Iran's willingness to end the war has reversed the market trading logic. Gold prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and then gradually rise with fluctuations [10][12] - Investment advice: It is expected that precious metals will oscillate and rise, but the trend will be affected by the development of the US - Iran situation [12] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and Pakistan put forward five initiatives to restore peace and stability in the Gulf and the Middle East. The new regulations on the funds of domestic enterprises listed overseas have been implemented, which improves the convenience of cross - border financing. The global risk assets have rebounded, and the A - share market may gradually repair [13][14][16] - Investment advice: Hold a low - position long position in the stock index and wait and see [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job vacancies in the US in February decreased, and the labor market activity is cooling. Although the US and Iran have expressed their willingness to end the war, the military operations have expanded, and the negotiation process may be tortuous. The volatility of the US stock market remains high [18][20] - Investment advice: Wait for a clearer right - hand side signal due to high short - term volatility [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, indicating an improvement in the domestic economic sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious when chasing up [22][23][25] - Investment advice: The bond market is in a volatile period, and be cautious when chasing up [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on March 31. The price of coal in the northern port has gradually weakened. Although it is in the off - season, the long - term upward risk of coal prices still exists due to overseas energy shortages [26] - Investment advice: Coal prices may slow down in the short term but have an upward risk in the long term [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Indian mining company plans to invest in a Brazilian iron ore project. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The downstream acceptance of ore prices is not high, but the increase in marginal costs limits the downward space [28] - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain weak [29] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot prices of coking coal in ports have mostly been lowered. The decline of the futures price is mainly due to the fall in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [30] - Investment advice: The futures price is affected by energy issues in the short term. Pay attention to demand changes [31] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in March was above the boom - bust line. The steel price has declined slightly due to the easing of the Middle East situation, and it is expected to remain in a volatile pattern [32] - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [33] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in March were estimated at 15.86 million tons. The US soybean planting intention was lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory was higher than expected. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March increased significantly [34][35][36] - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans [36] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory in the four northern ports increased, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions and purchases provide support for the corn price. The corn price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern [37][38][39] - Investment advice: Consider selling call options as the corn price is in a high - level volatile pattern [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Muyuan's net profit in 2025 decreased by 16.45%. The current hog market is in a weak situation, with high supply pressure and weak demand. The short - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the long - term strategy is to consider going long on far - month contracts [40][41][42] - Investment advice: Short on rebounds for the near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts with caution [42] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium salt projects are in progress. The lithium carbonate price has fallen. The supply disturbance has not been realized, and the demand is growing. The long - term view is supported by the new energy substitution narrative. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44][45] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips, but beware of liquidity risks [45] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have fluctuated. The market is mainly following the trend of precious metals. Due to geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues, it is recommended to wait and see [46][47] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading; pay attention to arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and take profits on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is in a low - level volatile state. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical factors affect the price. It is recommended to wait and see and protect long positions near the regeneration cost line [48][49][50] - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips on the right - hand side; wait and see on arbitrage [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating. Geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues exist. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on long positions [53] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading and arbitrage [53] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Some copper - related companies have investment and profit - increasing plans. The copper price is affected by the Middle East situation and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [54][55][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see on short - term single - side trading; pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the supply from major producing areas and demand growth [58][59] - Investment advice: The tin price will be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and pay attention to supply and demand factors [59] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production in March decreased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to the expected end of the war. Short - term attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [60][62] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the Middle East situation, and the oil price will remain highly volatile [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Aramco's April CP for LPG has increased. The price of LPG has回调 due to the easing of geopolitical risks. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation [64] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [65] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The operating rate of asphalt refineries in April is expected to decline. The asphalt price is rising slowly, and the supply is short. The downstream demand is affected by high prices and the rainy season [65] - Investment advice: The asphalt price is difficult to decline in the short term [66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Trump is willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The styrene price has fallen. The short - term de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and the general direction is to go long on dips [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the potential ground - war expectation and go long on dips in the long - run [69]

Core Viewpoint - The successful commissioning of Sinopec's Gaoqiao Petrochemical ABS production line marks an increase in annual capacity from 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons, enhancing product quality and market share [2]. Group 1: Production Capacity and Technology - The new ABS production line utilizes advanced and mature process technologies, ensuring stable and efficient production capabilities along with precise product quality control [2]. - The capacity expansion allows for a broader range of ABS product types, emphasizing high-end and customized features to improve quality and efficiency [2]. Group 2: Market Demand and Applications - ABS is a crucial general engineering plastic with extensive applications in automotive manufacturing, home appliances, construction materials, and daily consumer goods, supporting high-quality development in the manufacturing sector [2]. - The capacity increase is expected to better meet the market demand for high-quality ABS, aiding the transformation and upgrading of downstream industries [2]. Group 3: Company Background - Gaoqiao Petrochemical, established in November 1981 and part of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, occupies an area of 4.2 square kilometers and operates over 50 production units [2]. - The company produces a variety of refined oil and chemical products, including automotive gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, industrial phenol, acetone, ABS, and butadiene rubber [2]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The series of high-performance ABS products developed by Gaoqiao Petrochemical has achieved import substitution in the low-gloss sector, with multiple grades validated by leading downstream customers, and is widely used in new energy vehicles, electronics, and high-end panels [3]. - By 2025, sales of Gaoqiao Petrochemical's ABS and styrene-butadiene rubber products are projected to reach a historical high [3].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The contradiction on the supply side of LPG is gradually accumulating, and spot prices have generally risen. The unclear situation in the Middle East has led to a low number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact on LPG supply is gradually being realized. The arrival prices continue to rise, and domestic spot prices in various regions have generally increased. Before the substantial recovery of Middle East logistics, the LPG supply gap will persist and its impact will gradually accumulate, and downstream chemical plants will face the pressure of passive production cuts due to insufficient raw materials. Although there is room for growth in US exports, it cannot fully offset the Middle East gap, and attention should be paid to the potential negotiation progress between Iran and the United States [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 30, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 5900 - 6250 yuan/ton; North China market, 6250 - 6570 yuan/ton; East China market, 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 6730 - 6960 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton; South China market, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of April 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane for frozen cargoes in East China were both 1070 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices of propane and butane were both 8154 yuan/ton, up 131 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane for frozen cargoes were also 1070 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton, and the RMB - converted prices were both 8154 yuan/ton, up 131 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term violent fluctuations, mainly on the sidelines in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation between the US and Iran, with risk aversion increasing, and the prices of various assets showing different trends [1][2][6]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different commodities vary, with some facing supply disruptions and others having changes in demand [4][35][42]. - The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is in a wait - and - see state, and the impact of the Iran - US conflict on inflation needs further observation [15][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chairman Powell said there is a contradiction between the Fed's two goals, and short - term monetary policy is in a wait - and - see stage [11]. - Trump threatened to attack Iran, and the gold price oscillated and rose. The decline in US bond yields reduced the pressure on precious metals. Gold prices continued the oscillatory bottom - building trend [12]. - Investment advice: The short - term trends of gold and silver prices are oscillatory, and the rebound strength is weak [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Rubio said the US may re - evaluate its relationship with NATO after the Iran war, and Powell said the Fed can wait and see the impact of the war on inflation [14][15]. - Trump pressured Iran to reopen the Strait, market risk aversion weakened, and the US dollar index rebounded in the short term [16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will maintain a high level in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell said that energy price shocks are often short - term, and monetary policy usually ignores such shocks, but inflation expectations need to be closely monitored [18]. - Trump hoped to reach an agreement with Iran before April 6, but Iran denied the negotiation. Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The short - term probability of reaching an agreement is low, and US stocks opened higher and closed lower [19][20]. - Investment advice: It is expected that US stocks will operate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for a clear right - hand signal [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Administration for Market Regulation aims to prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries. A - shares oscillated and strengthened, but the signal of the stock index turning from a rebound to a reversal has not appeared [22]. - Investment advice: It is still recommended to hold a low - position to avoid risks [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 269.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 261.5 billion yuan on the day [24]. - The market expectations are chaotic, and the capital and institutional behavior dominate the market. Treasury bond futures strengthened, but the cost - performance of chasing the rise is low [24][25]. - Investment advice: The cost - performance of chasing the rise is low [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's iron ore port operations in Western Australia have fully recovered, but the iron ore price continued to oscillate weakly. The long - term price decline pressure increased, and the short - term spot is expected to be weakly stable [27][28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price will continue to oscillate weakly, and the long - term price decline pressure will increase [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Lvliang Lishi market decreased. The overall coking coal supply is slightly reduced, but the national output is still at a high level. The inventory is decreasing, but the market sentiment has weakened recently [29]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the futures price is supported by energy issues, but the overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The transportation department completed 355.8 billion yuan of transportation fixed - asset investment from January to February. Mexico made an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Chinese hot - rolled steel [30][31]. - The steel price oscillated after opening higher. The supply - demand contradiction of finished products is not prominent, and it is difficult to form a smooth trend. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory thinking and pay attention to the situation in the Middle East and energy prices [32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean inventory of major oil mills decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is behind last year [32][33][34]. - The market expects the US soybean quarterly inventory to reach 2.063 billion bushels. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA report and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [35]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price will oscillate for the time being, and attention should be paid to the USDA report and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Ukraine's grain exports decreased by 20.4% year - on - year. The domestic supply side has changes in sales progress, imports, and inventory. The downstream demand has support, and the policy provides bottom - line support [36][37]. - Investment advice: The corn price will maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Indonesian president said the country will promote the B50 biodiesel project this year, which strengthened the possibility of its implementation and the palm oil price rose [39]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the palm oil price will be strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contracts [40]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market supervision department will prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries. EVE Energy's subsidiary plans to invest 6 billion yuan to build a 60GWh power energy - storage battery project [40][41]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated strongly, the spot trading weakened, the supply side was tight, and the demand side focused on power demand [41][42]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices, but it is difficult for the spot to drive the futures price to break through the previous high before the supply disruption is realized [43]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium oscillated upward, mainly following the trend of precious metals. The supply side has risks, and the demand side has support [44]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and pay attention to the risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the month - spread [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price was in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The downstream consumption will face the off - season, and the lead price may test the support level again [46][47]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at a low price on the long - short side and wait and see on the arbitrage side [47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly, the zinc price oscillated upward, and the LME structure changed. The market liquidity has problems, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and the previous long positions are recommended to take profits at high prices. Wait and see on the arbitrage side [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glomar and Cobalt Blue plan to build a deep - sea mineral processing plant, and the Canadian government tries to save a copper smelter. Congo (Kinshasa) and China signed a mineral cooperation agreement [50][51][52]. - The copper price is suppressed by the risk of war escalation and liquidity panic. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the overseas demand is weak [52]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the domestic - foreign inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin price had a discount, and the domestic and overseas inventories changed. The supply side has a tight pattern in the short term, and the demand side is weak [54][55][56]. - Investment advice: The tin price will oscillate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply situation of major producing areas and the change of macro trends [56]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil price oscillated strongly, and the negotiation between the US and Iran has large differences [57][58]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG port inventory increased slightly. The domestic and foreign LPG prices oscillated, and the market atmosphere was good. The conflict between the US and Iran may intensify [59]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation and the dynamics between the US and Iran [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea futures price rebounded, the inventory decreased, and the demand was supported, but the export policy may restrict the upward space [60][61]. - Investment advice: The near - term urea futures price will continue to oscillate in a range [62]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene were strong. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the export of styrene is expected to be realized [63][64]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to go long at low prices in general [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery and social inventories increased. The cost side supported the price, but the terminal demand has not fully started, and the inventory digestion is slow [66]. - Investment advice: The geopolitical risk continues, and the downside support is strong [67]. 3.2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Hapag - Lloyd's 2025 revenue was about $21.1 billion, and it issued a cautious warning for 2026. The Middle East geopolitical situation has an impact on the container freight rate, with the far - month contracts rising and the near - month contracts oscillating weakly [68][69]. - Investment advice: The near - month contracts return to the spot logic, and the far - month contracts are easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to maintain an oscillatory thinking and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with improvements in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises started to replenish inventory, showing signs of recovery in the Chinese enterprise sector. However, due to the turbulent world political situation in March, the rhythm of industrial enterprise profits remains to be observed [22][23]. - The short - term cost support for steel prices is difficult to decline significantly, and terminal demand is neutral. Steel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, and the impact of the Middle East situation on steel exports needs to be noted [2][31]. - The production of sugar in Thailand in the 25/26 season is better than expected, and the international sugar trade flow is expected to face greater pressure of oversupply in the second and third quarters of 2026. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [36][37]. - The Middle East situation is still tense, which suppresses the prices of some assets such as copper and US stocks, while increasing the risk premium of oil prices [4][6][74]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and any passage through this channel will face "severe measures" [11]. - The Senate hearing of Fed Chairman nominee Wash will be held as early as the week of April 13. The short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and silver is expected to be weaker than gold [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US military is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. The market is worried about the escalation of the US military's ground operation, the risk appetite is low, and the US dollar index remains high [3][14][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and the Houthi armed forces attacked important Israeli military targets. The short - term US stock market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][18][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year. The Middle East situation has deteriorated, and the stock index is still under pressure [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 146.2 billion yuan. It is recommended to pay close attention to the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market is running steadily and strongly. The overall supply - demand pattern of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream's ability to accept prices is limited. It is necessary to focus on changes in the demand side [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel industry had a loss of 2.47 billion yuan from January to February. The short - term steel price is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [2][29][32]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The production of sugar in Thailand in the 25/26 season is better than expected, and the international sugar trade flow is expected to be in surplus in the second and third quarters of 2026. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [36][37]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton exports in February were 270,500 tons. The US cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease. The short - term external cotton is expected to be strongly volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [38][42][43]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US has finalized the biofuel blending quotas for 2026 - 2027. Palm oil prices are strongly supported, and soybean oil is expected to gradually get out of the undervalued range and be in a volatile and strengthening pattern next week [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn export sales in the week ending March 19 were in line with expectations. Corn prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [48][49][50]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The domestic oil mill's soybean crushing volume decreased last week. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting intention report and quarterly inventory report. It is recommended to view soybean meal from a volatile perspective for the time being [51][52]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Luoyang Molybdenum produced 741,100 tons of copper in 2025, reaching a new high. The copper price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the domestic positive arbitrage layout [53][55][56]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - EnergyX started a lithium production facility in Texas. The lithium ore supply is tight, and the demand for power is not pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [57][58][59]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Middle East situation has led to a shortage of sulfuric acid in the Chilean mining industry. The lead price is expected to continue to grind at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61][63]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price rebounded last week. The overseas zinc ore supply is tightened, and the domestic zinc smelting profit has declined. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and take profit on long positions at high prices [65][66]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium were in a low - level volatile pattern last week. It is recommended to wait and see for platinum and palladium, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and take profit on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy at high prices [67][68][69]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and overseas tin inventories decreased last week. The supply of tin ore is tight in the short term, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to the supply of major producing areas and the realization of demand growth [71][72][73]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Middle East conflict has entered the fourth week, and the oil price risk premium remains high. The short - term oil price is affected by the uncertainty of the Middle East situation [74][75]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price was in a volatile and weak pattern last week. It is expected to be in a strongly volatile pattern next week, and it is necessary to be cautious before the geopolitical situation is clear [76]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern, and enterprises with demand can consider buying on dips [77][78]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene futures rose due to the tense Middle East situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to reduce inventory in April and May and continue to run strongly [79][80]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of major ports in China increased in the first two months of 2026. The spot container freight rate has loosened, and the far - month contract is supported by oil prices and is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a volatile thinking and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [81][82].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent developments regarding the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a positive shift with Iran allowing additional Pakistani vessels to pass through, which is seen as a constructive gesture towards regional stability [3]. Group 1: Navigation Developments - Iran has agreed to allow 20 additional Pakistani vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with two ships expected to transit daily [3]. - The current navigation situation remains significantly below pre-war levels, with only four tracked vessels completing passage recently, compared to nearly 100 vessels before the conflict [4]. - Since the onset of the conflict on February 28, the daily number of vessels passing through the Strait has been low, with a maximum of around 10 vessels per day [4]. Group 2: Regional Diplomatic Efforts - Malaysia and Thailand have received commitments from Iran for their vessels to pass through the Strait, while Indonesia is in discussions regarding the release of two detained oil tankers [4]. - The Iranian parliament is considering legislation to impose fees on vessels attempting to navigate the Strait, which could generate significant revenue [5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The Strait typically sees the passage of 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily, equivalent to 10 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) [5]. - If a fee of $2 million per vessel is implemented, it could result in monthly revenues of $600 million [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply gap of LPG may continue to accumulate, and the arrival cost has rebounded again. The market's expectation of the easing of the Iranian situation has increased, leading to a decline in crude oil and internal and external prices. However, the war has not really subsided, and the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, indicating that the impact on LPG supply continues to spread. The arrival price rebounded again yesterday. The spot prices in various domestic regions showed mixed trends yesterday. The mainstream transaction prices of civil LPG and ether-based C4 in Shandong decreased compared with the previous working day, and the sales volume of manufacturers was poor, with the market sentiment declining. Before the substantial recovery of the Middle East logistics, the LPG supply gap will continue to exist and its impact will gradually accumulate. Attention should be paid to the potential negotiation progress between Iran and the United States [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 26, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6180 - 6250; Northeast market, 5620 - 6010; North China market, 6200 - 6350; East China market, 6700 - 7350; Yangtze River market, 6840 - 6960; Northwest market, 5700 - 5900; South China market, 7150 - 7400 [1]. - In the second half of April 2026, the arrival price of frozen LPG in East China was 1050 US dollars/ton for propane and 1050 US dollars/ton for butane, both up 70 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price was 7984 yuan/ton for propane and 7984 yuan/ton for butane, both up 549 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of April 2026, the arrival price of frozen LPG in South China was 1050 US dollars/ton for propane and 1050 US dollars/ton for butane, both up 70 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price was 7984 yuan/ton for propane and 7984 yuan/ton for butane, both up 549 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term sharp fluctuations, mainly on the sidelines in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price is running weakly, and macro - risks still exist. With the marginal easing of the Middle East situation, the prices of outer - market crude oil and LPG have declined, and the PG futures price has fallen from a high. The domestic spot prices in various regions showed mixed trends yesterday. Due to the easing of the Middle East situation and the outer - market trend, the manufacturers of civil gas and ether - post carbon four have offered discounts to increase sales. Although there have been significant pull - backs in both the inner and outer markets, the situation in Iran remains unclear, the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation, and the news is constantly changing. In a high - volatility market, both long and short positions lack a safety margin, so caution is needed [1] - The short - term strategy for unilateral trading is to mainly wait and see due to short - term sharp fluctuations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 25th, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6380 - 6500; Northeast market, 5620 - 6010; North China market, 6200 - 6450; East China market, 6700 - 7350; Yangtze River area market, 6840 - 6960; Northwest market, 5700 - 6015; South China market, 7100 - 7300 [1] - In the second half of April 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 980 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 100 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 980 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 100 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, the price of propane was 7435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 762 yuan/ton, and the price of butane was 7435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 762 yuan/ton. The same price changes occurred in South China [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term sharp fluctuations, mainly wait and see in the short term [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On March 25, 2026, equity index futures rose while most commodities dropped, with energy leading the decline and precious metals leading the increase [9][11]. - The main contracts of silicon metal, poly - silicon, and lithium carbonate all rose on March 25, with price trends affected by supply - demand fundamentals and macro factors [17][24][30]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 25, equity index futures rose (IC rose 2.2%, IM rose 1.7%), and most commodities dropped. Energy led the drop and precious metals led the raise. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver (up 7.0% with a 1.5% month - on - month increase in open interest), platinum (up 5.6% with a 0.2% month - on - month increase in open interest), and palladium (up 5.1% with a 4.2% month - on - month increase in open interest). The top three decliners were LPG (down 8.0% with a 1.6% month - on - month increase in open interest), fuel oil (down 6.5% with a 6.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and SCFIS(Europe) (down 6.0% with a 21.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On March 25, the main contract of silicon metal rose 1.7% to 8770 yuan/ton (GFEX). It remains in an oversupplied condition. Coal price increases offer cost support, and silicon prices are expected to fluctuate sideways. Geopolitical conflicts affect energy and coal prices, providing cost support. Northwest supply is stable, and Southwest supply is low in the dry season. Demand from polysilicon, organosilicon, and aluminum alloy is weak [17][18][19]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On March 25, the main poly - silicon futures contract rose 2.8% to 36750 yuan/ton (GFEX). Weak demand drags down prices, but supply is at a low level. In the medium to long term, prices may fluctuate widely as supply contracts and leading enterprises integrate [24][25][26]. 1.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - On March 25, the main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 4.3% to 159120 yuan/ton (GFEX). Short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply disruptions persist, demand is divergent, and the market is pricing in the expectation of an extended ore export ban in Zimbabwe [30][31][32]. 2. Important News 2.1 Macro News - Wang Yi held a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi on March 24. Araghchi stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all except warring countries [38]. - The US government submitted a 15 - point peace proposal to Iran via Pakistan, and is considering a one - month ceasefire for further negotiations [38]. - Iran refused to negotiate with Witkoff and Kushner, accusing them of "bad faith" [38]. - The Israeli military bombed two naval cruise missile production sites in Tehran on March 25 [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negotiation between the US and Iran is in a state of "talking and fighting", with unclear negotiation expectations, leading to high - level fluctuations in the US dollar index [1][11]. - A - shares opened higher and closed higher, but the sustainability of the short - term rebound of the stock index remains to be observed [2][15]. - The bond market has no trend - like market and is more concerned about geopolitical situations [3][16]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, showing different trends [4][20][26] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - A private credit fund managed by Ares Management had a record - breaking monthly loss in February, indicating the deterioration of the $1.8 trillion private credit market [10]. - Milan believes that the current monetary policy is suppressing the economy and advocates a 1 - percentage - point interest rate cut this year [11]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is in a state of "talking and fighting", with unclear negotiation expectations, and the US dollar is fluctuating at a high level. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to fluctuate at a high level [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares opened higher and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3900 points, and the market had more than 4800 rising stocks [13]. - Iran stated that non - hostile ships meeting certain conditions can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the market's concern about crude oil supply shortages and causing a significant rise in risk assets. However, the sustainability of the short - term rebound of the stock index remains to be observed. It is recommended to wait for the situation to become clear before making right - side trades [15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 78.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 58 billion yuan on the day, and will also conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations [16]. - The bond market has no trend - like market and is more concerned about geopolitical situations. It is recommended to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sintering machine renovation project of Henan Iron and Steel's Zhoukou Base was successfully put into operation [18]. - Steel prices are oscillating weakly. The progress of the iron ore negotiation has led to a decline in ore prices and steel prices. The steel product fundamentals lack clear drivers, and the downstream terminal demand is limited. It is recommended to hold a small - position wait - and - see attitude [18][19]. 2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northern Shanxi market has increased. The short - term price is affected by international crude oil prices, and in the long - term, the upward movement of coking coal prices is still restricted. It is necessary to focus on the resumption of molten iron production, terminal demand fulfillment, and coal mine resumption progress [20][21]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic and foreign trade corn inventories in Guangdong Port decreased, while the inventories of imported sorghum and barley increased [22]. - The supply of corn is expected to increase, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions also provide bottom - line support for the corn market. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [23][25]. 2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The average price of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The fundamentals lack a clear trading theme, and they mainly follow macro - level fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use option positions, and wait and see for palladium. Also, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium term [26][27]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead showed a discount of $35.03 per ton on March 24. The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The downstream consumption is facing the off - season, but there is cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line opportunity of buying on dips, preferably on the right - hand side, and wait and see for arbitrage [28]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate TC price guidance range for the end of the second quarter of 2026. The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the mid - line opportunity of buying on dips. For arbitrage, maintain a long - short position in the domestic - foreign market in the mid - line [30][31]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zijin Mining plans to put the Manono lithium mine in the Congo into production in June this year, and Yahua Group signed a five - year lithium spodumene concentrate purchase agreement [32]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a tight balance in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the price correction [34][35]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Luoyang钼业 released the production guidance for its main products in 2026. The copper price is affected by the Middle East war situation and is expected to continue to oscillate and build a bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage [36][39]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Indonesia's tin ingot exports increased in February. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the short - term price decline was blocked by inventory reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the macro - trend [39][42]. 2.10 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - According to EIA weekly data, the US propane/propylene inventory increased. The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the complex geopolitical situation [43][45]. 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. After the geopolitical risk premium is gradually squeezed out, there may still be opportunities for low - buying in the future [45][46]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt decreased. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to supply risks [47][48]. 2.13 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - COSCO Shipping resumed booking services for some countries in the Middle East, but it does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation. The market's focus is still on the navigation situation of the Strait of Hormuz [49][51].