Core Insights - Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns that Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" will not achieve fiscal balance through growth effects and will provide limited economic growth stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - The plan is estimated to cost $2.3 trillion but will only generate $102.8 billion in revenue feedback, resulting in a self-financing ratio of only 4.5% [2][3] - To achieve self-financing, GDP needs to grow by approximately 9% by the fiscal year 2034, which is deemed nearly impossible [2][3] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) projects that the plan will only increase GDP by an average of 3 basis points over the next 10 years, with a maximum increase of 0.4% by the fiscal year 2034 [3][4] - Economic effects from 2025 to 2034 are projected as follows: Output increase of 0.4%, Business capital decrease of 0.1%, Labor increase of 0.6%, and Consumption increase of 0.8% [3][4] Group 3: Comparison with Other Estimates - The Tax Foundation estimates that the plan will lead to a long-term GDP growth of 0.8%, covering about one-third of its costs [4] - The Wharton School predicts a GDP growth of 0.4% in the first decade, raising the annual growth rate from 1.8% to 1.85% [4] - The Yale Budget Lab suggests that the plan may raise growth rates from 1.8% to about 2% by 2027, but federal debt will eventually reverse this effect [4]