(国际观察)英国财政预算谋求"微妙平衡" 但民生支出的扩容力度难以完全抵消税负上升的影响。舆观调查公司公布的民调显示，63%的英国人认 为当前税负已偏高，42%的民众相信财政问题可在不提高普通家庭税负的前提下解决。英国国家经济与 社会研究所主任大卫·艾克曼则直指深层矛盾："我们一直在用20世纪的税收基础支撑一个21世纪的福利 国家"，当前财政模式已不可持续。 更深层的挑战来自经济基本面的制约。OBR的预测呈现明显分化，虽将2025年经济增长预期从1%上调 至1.5%，但2026年增速预期却从1.9%大幅下调至1.4%。巴克莱银行在预算案公布前的分析也指出，英 国经济增长动力不均，国内需求持续疲软，生产率增长乏力。也有专家发出警示，预算案高度依赖"通 胀按预期回落"的假设，而能源价格、地缘政治等因素可能带来新的上行压力。 英国智库财政研究所评价称，里夫斯通过增税将财政缓冲空间提升是明智举措，但预算案的关键问题在 于"税收增加指向未来，而支出却是眼前的"，未能触及结构性难题。 值得注意的是，预算案公布前夕，OBR因技术错误提前泄露预测报告，引发市场波动，暴露了政策推 进中的不确定性。 中新社伦敦11月27日电 ( ...

Core Points - The Japanese government plans to issue more new bonds to finance its economic stimulus package, with the new bond scale expected to exceed the previous fiscal year's level [1][4] - The supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 is estimated at approximately 18.3 trillion yen, funded by issuing 11.7 trillion yen in government bonds [1][4] - The government aims to control borrowing by utilizing a tax revenue surplus of 2.9 trillion yen, about 1 trillion yen in non-tax revenue, and approximately 2.7 trillion yen in unused funds from the previous fiscal year [1][4] Economic Stimulus Plan - The comprehensive economic stimulus plan approved by the Japanese government amounts to 21.3 trillion yen, marking the largest stimulus measure since the pandemic began [4] - The plan addresses various areas, including inflation relief, strategic industry investment, and defense spending [4] - Specific allocations include 2.95 trillion yen for inflation response, 1.5 trillion yen for key sectors like AI and shipbuilding, and 1.3 trillion yen for defense [5][6] Fiscal Concerns - Concerns about Japan's long-term fiscal situation under Prime Minister Kishi's administration have led to increased investor anxiety, with long-term government bond yields reaching over 20-year highs [7] - The dollar to yen exchange rate is reported at 155.95, while the 20-year and 30-year government bond yields are at 3.329% and 3.677%, respectively [7] - To stabilize market sentiment, Prime Minister Kishi indicated that the total government bond issuance for the current fiscal year would be lower than the previous year, with a total issuance of 40.3 trillion yen expected for fiscal year 2025 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Argentine Senate has overturned President Milei's veto of a fiscal fund distribution mechanism, which will now be reviewed by the Chamber of Deputies, indicating ongoing tensions between the executive and legislative branches [1] Group 1: Legislative Actions - The fiscal fund distribution mechanism accounts for 1% of Argentina's federal tax revenue and aims to address emergencies and fiscal imbalances in provinces [1] - The Senate and Chamber of Deputies passed the new fiscal fund distribution mechanism on July 10 and August 20, respectively, to support local finances and public services through automatic allocation [1] - President Milei vetoed the bill on September 12, arguing that automatic allocation would weaken federal control over fiscal resources and hinder fiscal balance goals [1] Group 2: Political Dynamics - Analysts note that President Milei has long lacked stable support in Congress and has not built a reliable political coalition [1] - Since August, Congress has repeatedly overturned Milei's vetoes, highlighting the deepening divide between the President and Congress [1] - The economic reform plan focused on reducing fiscal deficits and controlling inflation may face further obstacles due to these ongoing conflicts [1]

Core Points - The Argentine Congress overturned President Milei's veto on pediatric and higher education bills, which will now be reviewed by the Senate [1] - The bills aim to allocate special budgets to public pediatric hospitals, ensure healthcare personnel salaries, and provide more resources to public universities while increasing faculty salaries [1] - President Milei vetoed these bills citing concerns over fiscal balance [1] Legislative Process - According to Argentine law, the president can veto bills passed by Congress, but if two-thirds of both houses vote against the veto, the bill can become law [1] - Some members of Milei's ruling coalition, the "Libertarian Forward Party," and centrist lawmakers voted against the veto in the House, indicating potential instability within the political alliance [1] Economic Context - Since taking office in December 2023, President Milei has implemented a series of economic reforms aimed at reducing fiscal deficits and controlling inflation [1] - The "Libertarian Forward Party" faced a setback in the Buenos Aires provincial elections on September 7, reflecting public skepticism towards the government's economic reforms [1] - In a televised address on September 15, Milei emphasized that achieving fiscal balance is a non-negotiable goal for the 2026 budget [1]

Core Viewpoint - Argentine President Milei emphasized the commitment to fiscal balance in his address regarding the 2026 budget, stating that achieving this goal is essential for the country's economic growth and to avoid hyperinflation [1] Economic Outlook - The budget proposal submitted to Congress forecasts a 5% growth in Argentina's GDP for 2026 [1] - The expected inflation rate for 2026 is projected at 10.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Argentine President Milei emphasized the commitment to fiscal balance in his address regarding the 2026 budget, stating that achieving this goal is crucial for economic growth after decades of stagnation, while failure to do so could lead to uncontrollable inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Policy - President Milei reiterated that fiscal balance is a non-negotiable goal, which he believes will lead to unimaginable growth for the Argentine economy [1] - The 2026 budget allocates 4.8 trillion pesos to public universities, with pension and public healthcare expenditures increasing by 5% and 17% respectively, both exceeding the inflation rate [1] Group 2: Political Context - The ruling coalition "La Libertad Avanza" faced a setback in the Buenos Aires provincial assembly elections, contributing to a decline in Milei's government approval ratings [1] - Allegations of bribery involving key government officials have added to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming midterm elections in October [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - On the day of Milei's address, Argentina's country risk index surpassed 1200 points, indicating ongoing financial market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - Argentine President Milei emphasized the commitment to fiscal balance in his address regarding the 2026 budget, stating that achieving this goal is crucial for economic growth after decades of stagnation, while failure could lead to uncontrollable inflation [1] Budget and Economic Policy - The 2026 budget allocates 4.8 trillion pesos for public universities, with pension expenditures and public healthcare spending increasing by 5% and 17% respectively, both exceeding the inflation rate [1] - Milei reiterated the importance of creating conditions for businesses to be profitable and expressed a desire to increase investments [1] Political Context and Challenges - The ruling coalition "La Libertad Avanza" faced a setback in the Buenos Aires provincial assembly elections, contributing to a decline in Milei's government approval ratings [1] - Allegations of bribery involving key government officials have added to the political uncertainty, impacting financial markets ahead of the upcoming midterm elections in October [1] - On the day of Milei's address, Argentina's national risk index surpassed 1200 points, indicating heightened financial market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and uncertainties facing the U.S. economy in the second half of 2025, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and the "Beautiful America Act" on economic performance and market behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF has revised down the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, a drop of 0.9 percentage points [1]. - There is a need to guard against the risk of an unexpected economic downturn, especially if the unemployment rate rises to the range of 4.4% to 4.6%, which could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [2][5]. Group 2: Tariffs and Legislative Impact - The two main themes for the second half of 2025 are the verification of tariff data and the potential impact of the "Beautiful America Act" [2]. - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has increased uncertainty regarding trade, industrial production, and economic growth in the latter half of the year [1]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The article suggests that under the influence of a slowing U.S. economy and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar may further depreciate, leading to a passive appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar [8]. - If the U.S. moves towards fiscal balance following the implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," it could create additional space for interest rate cuts, potentially continuing the trend of gradual dollar depreciation [8].

Group 1 - Malaysia has implemented significant adjustments to the Sales and Service Tax (SST) starting July 1, imposing a 5% to 10% sales tax on non-essential and luxury goods, while expanding the service tax scope [1][2] - The new tax policy aims to broaden the tax base and increase fiscal revenue while selectively avoiding essential goods to mitigate the burden on the general public [1][4] - Luxury items such as imported salmon, high-end fruits, and truffles are taxed at 5%, while high-value collectibles like antiques and luxury cars are taxed at 10%, reflecting the government's consideration of consumer spending capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The expansion of the service tax includes sectors like leasing, construction, financial services, education, and beauty services, addressing long-standing gaps in the tax base [2][3] - The tax reform is part of the "Prosperous Economy" reform framework, emphasizing sustainable fiscal policies and social inclusivity while avoiding taxes on basic necessities [2][4] - Measures have been introduced to alleviate the impact on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), including exemptions for those with rental income below 500,000 MYR (approximately 117,900 USD) [3][4] Group 3 - The additional tax revenue will be allocated to enhance public services, expand cash assistance, and improve infrastructure and healthcare resources, aiming to reduce the budget deficit from approximately 4.3% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025 [4] - The tax reform is designed to maintain basic government operations while gradually building a more robust tax system, balancing moderate adjustments with progressive reforms [4] - The government asserts that the tax burden will not increase on essential goods for the general public, but higher-income individuals will contribute more to address future economic pressures [4]

Core Insights - Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns that Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" will not achieve fiscal balance through growth effects and will provide limited economic growth stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - The plan is estimated to cost $2.3 trillion but will only generate $102.8 billion in revenue feedback, resulting in a self-financing ratio of only 4.5% [2][3] - To achieve self-financing, GDP needs to grow by approximately 9% by the fiscal year 2034, which is deemed nearly impossible [2][3] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) projects that the plan will only increase GDP by an average of 3 basis points over the next 10 years, with a maximum increase of 0.4% by the fiscal year 2034 [3][4] - Economic effects from 2025 to 2034 are projected as follows: Output increase of 0.4%, Business capital decrease of 0.1%, Labor increase of 0.6%, and Consumption increase of 0.8% [3][4] Group 3: Comparison with Other Estimates - The Tax Foundation estimates that the plan will lead to a long-term GDP growth of 0.8%, covering about one-third of its costs [4] - The Wharton School predicts a GDP growth of 0.4% in the first decade, raising the annual growth rate from 1.8% to 1.85% [4] - The Yale Budget Lab suggests that the plan may raise growth rates from 1.8% to about 2% by 2027, but federal debt will eventually reverse this effect [4]