Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the U.S. airline and tourism industry showed average performance in Q2, leading to a forecasted 7% decline in sales for Samsonite (01910), similar to the decline in Q1 [1] Sales Forecast - Sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 5% to 6%, with EBITDA forecasts lowered by 10% to 14% [1] - Revenue and EBITDA predictions for 2025 have been adjusted downwards by 4% and 12% respectively, with expectations of gradual recovery in 2026 to 2027 [1] Regional Performance - The report anticipates high single-digit declines in sales for Asia and the U.S., while Europe is expected to remain relatively stable [1] Profitability Metrics - EBITDA margin is projected at 16.8%, impacted by weak sales leading to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in operating expenses [1] - EBITDA is expected to decline by 17% [1] Market Trends - Some U.S. and European airlines have reported improved booking demand for Q3, with travel trends in July and August showing a rebound [1] - The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reported a year-over-year increase of over 1% in passenger throughput for Q3, compared to a 1% decline in Q2 [1] - Due to a lower base, the forecasted sales decline for Samsonite in the second half of the year is expected to narrow to 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the U.S. airline and tourism industry showed average performance in Q2, with expectations for Samsonite's sales to decline by 7%, similar to the Q1 decline [1] Group 1: Sales and Profitability - Expected EBITDA margin for Samsonite is 16.8%, attributed to weak sales leading to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in operating expenses [1] - EBITDA is projected to decline by 17%, but the decline is expected to narrow [1] - For the second half of the year, some U.S. and European airlines report improved booking demand for Q3, with travel trends in July and August showing recovery [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Due to a low base, the sales decline for Samsonite in the second half is expected to narrow to 2% [1] - Sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been revised down by 5% to 6%, while EBITDA forecasts have been reduced by 10% to 14% [1] - Revenue and EBITDA forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted down by 4% and 12%, respectively, with gradual recovery anticipated in 2026 to 2027 [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustment - In response to the lowered profit forecasts, the target price for Samsonite has been reduced from HKD 28 to HKD 24, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]