Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the U.S. airline and tourism industry showed average performance in Q2, leading to a forecasted 7% decline in sales for Samsonite (01910), similar to the decline in Q1 [1] Sales Forecast - Sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 5% to 6%, with EBITDA forecasts lowered by 10% to 14% [1] - Revenue and EBITDA predictions for 2025 have been adjusted downwards by 4% and 12% respectively, with expectations of gradual recovery in 2026 to 2027 [1] Regional Performance - The report anticipates high single-digit declines in sales for Asia and the U.S., while Europe is expected to remain relatively stable [1] Profitability Metrics - EBITDA margin is projected at 16.8%, impacted by weak sales leading to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in operating expenses [1] - EBITDA is expected to decline by 17% [1] Market Trends - Some U.S. and European airlines have reported improved booking demand for Q3, with travel trends in July and August showing a rebound [1] - The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reported a year-over-year increase of over 1% in passenger throughput for Q3, compared to a 1% decline in Q2 [1] - Due to a lower base, the forecasted sales decline for Samsonite in the second half of the year is expected to narrow to 2% [1]

该行将2025至27年销售预测下调5至6%，EBITDA预测下调10%至14%，而2025年收入及EBITDA预测分 别下调4%和12%，料2026至27年将逐步恢复；因应盈利预测下调，目标价由28港元下调至24港元， 予"增持"评级。 摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，美国行业数据反映次季航空旅游业表现一般，预期新秀丽次季销售额将跌 7%，与首季跌幅相若；预期EBITDA利润率为16.8%，因销售疲弱导致毛利率下跌及营运开支上升，预 期EBITDA跌幅收窄至17%。至于下半年，部分欧美航空公司表示第三季预订需求有所改善，7、8月出 行趋势回升。由于基数较低，该行预计下半年新秀丽销售跌幅将收窄至2%。 ...